The ‘light touch’ of the Black Death in the Southern Netherlands: an urban trick?

Although the fanciful notion that the Black Death bypassed the Low Countries has long been rejected, nevertheless a persistent view remains that the Low Countries experienced only a ‘light touch’ of the plague when placed in a broader European perspective, and recovered quickly and fully. However, in this article an array of dispersed sources for the Southern Netherlands together with a new mortmain accounts database for Hainaut show that the Black Death was severe, perhaps no less severe than other parts of western Europe; that serious plagues continued throughout the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries; and that the Black Death and recurring plagues spread over vast territories—including the countryside. The previous conception of a ‘light touch’ of plague in the Low Countries was created by the overprivileging of particular urban sources, and a failure to account for the rapid replenishment of cities via inward migration, which obscured demographic decimation. We suggest that the population of the Low Countries may not have recovered faster than other parts of western Europe but instead experienced a greater degree of post‐plague rural–urban migration.     

Operating Strategies for Battery Storage Systems in Low-Voltage Grids to Limit the Feed-In Power of Solar Power Systems Using Fuzzy Control

Germany’s energy turnaround is leading to an increasing integration of photovoltaics (PVs) throughout its distribution grid. To ensure safe grid operation in times of high solar radiation, PV plants must either be throttled back to comply with the feed-in limitation or store a portion of their excess electricity in batteries. This paper presents a grid-optimized operating strategy for PV storage systems based on a Fuzzy Logic Controller that reduces peak feed-in and thus also PV curtailment losses. The Fuzzy Logic Controller uses data on PV power surplus and battery charge level as input variables. To obtain good results, the set of numerical parameters of the membership functions is enhanced by evolutionary programming.The energetic assessment shows that even small electrical storage capacities (<<5?kWh) reduce curtailment losses considerably when using the grid-optimized operating strategy. The economic assessment shows that, in 2016, investments in PV storage systems with large PV plants and small batteries have small (positive) Internal Rates of Return. The system efficiency of the battery storage has a small impact on the profitability of PV storage systems, whereas the cycle stability and the electricity purchase price have a large impact. Moreover, there is an economic benefit for plant operators to switch from the simple to the grid-optimized operating strategy. Solar forecast inaccuracies and variations in load and generation profiles have a negligible impact on the performance of the control algorithm.     

Transatlantic Differences in Consumer Preferences

Transatlantic Differences in Consumer Preferences The EU prohibits imports of hormone-treated beef and is about to impose labelling and traceability requirements on GMOs. Both policies have created growing unease on the part of exporting countries. The EU claims that public health concerns and consumers' preferences justify the trade restrictions, while exporters maintain that the rules serve primarily to protect domestic agriculture by limiting international competition. In a consumer study in France, Germany, the UK, and the US, we determine if consumers' preferences, as reflected in willingness-to-pay estimates, are different across the Atlantic. Our study covered two products: beef from cattle treated by hormones and from cattle fed genetically modified corn. Our results suggest that French consumers are willing to pay more than US consumers for beef from cattle not administered hormones. There are, however, no significant differences among German, UK and US consumers. In contrast, consumers in France, Germany and the UK are willing to pay more for beef from animals not fed GM corn than are US consumers. Given these results and current policy developments, it seems unlikely that the EU will retract its labelling requirements on GM food and feed, and future trade disputes are likely to emerge. Des consommateurs différents d'une rive de l'Atlantique à l'autre l'Union Européenne interdit l'importation de viande aux hormones, et s'apprête à imposer des normes d'étiquetage et de traçabilité pour les OGM. Dans chaque cas, les pays exportateurs ont été choqués par ces politiques. l'UE soutient que la santé publique et les préférences des consommateurs justifient de telles entorses au libéralisme, cependant que les pays exportateurs restent dans l' idée qu'il ne s'agit là que de moyens de protéger ragriculture rationale de la concurrence internationale. Nous avons essayé de vérifier si les préférences rationales, telles qu'elles sont définies par le consentement à payer, sont réellement différentes d'une rive à l'autre de l'Atlantique, à partir de l'étude d'un échantillon de consommateurs recrutés en France, Grande Bretagne, Allemagne et Etats Unis. Notre étude concerne deux produits:le bœuf traité aux hormones, et le bœuf nourri au maïs génétiquement modifyé. Les résultats montrent que les Français sont mieux disposés que les Américains à payer plus cher du bceuf non traité aux hormones. En dehors de cela, il n'y a pas de grosses différences entre les consommateurs anglais, allemands, et américains pour ce produit. Par contre, pour ce qui concerne le bœuf nourri au maïs OGM, il apparaît que les Britanniques, les Français et les Allemands sont bien plus disposés que les Américains à payer un surprixpour l'éviter. Dans ces conditions, et au vu des derniers développements politiques, on ne voit pas comment éviter que l'UE ne maintienne ses exigences en matière d'OGM pour l'alimentation humaine ou celledu bétail, ce qui entraînera sans doute une nouvelle guerre commerciale. Transatlantische Unterschiede bei verbraucherpräferenzen Die EU verbietet den Import von ormonbehandeltem Rindfleisch und wird in Kürze Rückverfolgbarkeit und Kennzeichnungspflicht bei GVOs verlangen. Diese beiden Maßnahmen werden von den Exportländem mißbiliigt. Die EU beruft sich darauf, dass diese Handelsrestriktionen durch die Sorge um die öffentliche Gesundheit und durch die Verbraucherpräferenzen gerechtfertigt seien. Die Exporteure führen an, dass diese Verordnungen primär dem Schutze der einheimischen Landwirtschaft dienten, da sie den internationalen Wettbewerb einschränken. In einer Verbraucherstudie in Frankreich, Deutschland, Großbritannien und den USA wird anhand von Schätzungen der Zahiungsbereitschaft ermittelt, ob es bei den Verbraucherpräferenzen tatsächlich transatlantische Unterschiede gibt. Die Studie umfasste zwei Erzeugnisse: Rindfleisch von hormonbehandelten Tieren und von Tieren, die mit genetisch verändertem Mais gefüttert worden waren. Die Resultate legen es nahe, dass französische Verbraucher mehr als US amerikanische Verbraucher bereit sind, einen höheren Preis für Rindfleisch von Tieren zu zahlen, welchen keine Hormone verabreicht wurden. Es sind jedoch keine signiflkanten Unterschiede zwischen deutschen, britischen und US-amerikanischen Verbrauchern vorhanden. Andererseits sind Franzosen, Deutsche und Briten mehr als US-amerikanische Verbraucher bereit, einen höheren Preis für Rindfleisch von Tieren zu zahlen, welche nicht mit genetisch verändertem Mais gefüttert wurden. In Anbetracht dieser Ergebnisse und der aktuellen politischen Entwicklungen erscheint es unwahrscheinlich, dass die EU die Verordnung zur Kennzeichnung von genetisch veränderten Lebensmitteln und Futtermitteln zurücknehmen wird. Zukünftige Handelskontroversen sind zu erwarten.     

Growing market concentration and changes in consumer welfare: The case of the U.S. commercial airline market

Initial assessments of the economic deregulation of the U.S. airline industry indicated that most consumers gained from the increased competition in the airline market. More recent studies have reached less favorable conclusions. In this study, changes in passenger welfare are determined for 19 U.S. destination cities for the years 1979, 1983, and 1987 on the basis of Hicks' equivalent variation measure, using a counterfactual research design. Particular attention is given to variations in consumer welfare gains/losses depending on (a) the proportion of the change in air fares attributed to deregulation, and (b) the destination airport's classification. The estimates suggest that travelers to large, long-standing hub cities were generally insulated from any large post-1979 welfare changes. Travelers to new hubs experienced substantial welfare declines between 1979 and 1987 — although their post-1983 welfare changes were uniformly positive. Travel to nonhub airports showed the greatest variance, with both the relatively largest welfare gains and the relatively largest losses.     

The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts

The Maddison Project, initiated in March 2010 by a group of close colleagues of Angus Maddison, aims to develop an effective system of cooperation between scholars to continue Maddison's work on measuring economic performance in the world economy. This article is a first product of the project. Its goal is to explain the aims and approach of the project, and, as a first result of this ‘collaboratory’, to inventory recent research on historical national accounts. We also briefly discuss some of the problems related to these historical statistics and we extend and where necessary revise the estimates published by Maddison in his latest overviews. Most new work relates to the period before 1820; it leads to a reassessment of levels of GDP per capita in western Europe in the early modern period, and to a confirmation of Maddison's previous estimates of Asian levels of real income.     

A Cost‐Based Model of Seasonal Production with Application to Milk Policy

Milk production is seasonal in many European countries. While quantity seasonality poses capacity management problems for dairy processors, an EU policy goal is to reduce price seasonality. After developing a model of endogenous seasonality, we study the effects of three EU policies on production decisions. These are private storage subsidies, production removals, and production quotas. When cost functions are seasonal in a specified way, then arbitrage opportunities interact with storage subsidies to reduce both price and consumption seasonality. But production seasonality is likely to increase because storage subsidies promote temporal market integration. Conditions are identified under which product market interventions increase quantity seasonality.     

Tests for the Role of Risk Aversion on Input Use

For risk-averting agents, risks alter production decisions while the existence of institutions to insure against adverse states of nature will likely restore decisions toward levels under risk neutrality. In this article, conditions are identified on a stochastic technology to test   H^rn _0,≤  : that risk averters choose smaller input levels than risk neutral agents, and   H^ra _0,≤  : that an increase in risk aversion reduces input use. A robust statistical method to test for dominance is adapted to stochastic production relations. It is found that   H^rn _0,≤  is likely true for nitrogen application on Iowa corn. Weaker evidence is found in favor of   H^ra _0,≤  .     

Creatine and entrepreneurship

Creatine is a nitrogenous organic acid which supplies energy to body cells and enhances physical performance. Using the Young Finns Study combined with the Finnish Linked employer-employee data we show that quantities of creatine measured in 1980 prior to labour market entry affect entrepreneurial success as measured by capital income accumulation over the period 1993–2010 (in particular for females). However, we do not find evidence that creatine affects the propensity to become an entrepreneur. Our study contributes to the emerging literature on biomarkers and entrepreneurship.