The Economic Value of Volatility Timing

Numerous studies report that standard volatility models have low explanatory power, leading some researchers to question whether these models have economic value. We examine this question by using conditional mean-variance analysis to assess the value of volatility timing to short-horizon investors. We find that the volatility timing strategies outperform the unconditionally efficient static portfolios that have the same target expected return and volatility. This finding is robust to estimation risk and transaction costs.     

A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility

We show that, for three common SARV models, fitting a minimummean square linear filter is equivalent to fitting a GARCH model.This suggests that GARCH models may be useful for filtering,forecasting, and parameter estimation in stochastic volatilitysettings. To investigate, we use simulations to evaluate howthe three SARV models and their associated GARCH filters performunder controlled conditions and then we use daily currency andequity index returns to evaluate how the models perform in arisk management application. Although the GARCH models produceless precise forecasts than the SARV models in the simulations,it is not clear that the performance differences are large enoughto be economically meaningful. Consistent with this view, wefind that the GARCH and SARV models perform comparably in testsof conditional value-at-risk estimates using the actual data.     

The CNO/CFO partnership: navigating the changing landscape

With increasing pressure to cut costs, both real and immediate, and those forecasted and anticipated, the partnership and collaboration between nursing and finance will continue to take on new challenges. This partnership has historically been strained and does not always come easy due to differences in focus, different priorities, and inadequate communication, listening, and hearing. That needs to change and a strong CNO-CFO partnership is needed. Nursing leaders need to understand and appreciate the financial constraints and balance them with expected outcomes, and financial leaders need to understand and appreciate the core clinical business and what gaps in care mean to the financial viability of the organization and to patient outcomes. One health system developed a platform for change and is dedicated to the hard work involved in continuously working on those partnerships so when it comes to patient quality, safety, and financial performance, nursing and finance leaders are well positioned for future health care challenges.     

A note on the socio-economic composition of the inner city

This paper considers the socio-economic structure of the inner area of Newcastle upon Tyne, in an attempt to contrast notions of a cycle of deprivation and the “housing trap” thesis. The use of discriminant analysis suggests that there exists no concentration of low-income groups within the inner city. The relationship between multiple deprivation and resource provision is examined with respect to this finding.     

Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation*

This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 1, 2 and 4°C warming, and predict 13, 38 and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two‐stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long‐run adjustments. The model accounts for a range of adaptive responses including: deficit irrigation, temporarily following of some areas, permanently reducing the irrigated area and changing the mix of crops. The results suggest that relatively low cost adaptation strategies are available for a moderate reduction in water availability and thus costs of such a reduction are likely to be relatively small. In more severe climate change scenarios greater costs are estimated. Adaptations predicted include a reduction in total area irrigated and investments in efficient irrigation. A shift away from perennial to annual crops is also predicted as the latter can be managed more profitably when water allocations in some years are very low.     

Competitive Effects of Disclosure in a Strategic Entry Model

We investigate the welfare consequences of incumbent firms' mutual disclosure of cost information when there is a threat of entry from a firm not required to disclose its private cost information. New effects of disclosure are observed relative to no-entry models, with the result that incumbents' expected output is a decreasing function of the disclosure level. However, further analysis shows that increased disclosure usually increases incumbent expected profits and decreases expected consumer surplus, despite the additional entry effect of disclosure. Such analytical derivations provide objective input to the FASB as they attempt to predict the competitive effects of changing mandated disclosure requirements.     

State support to small stores: A Nordic form of consumer policy

From the early 1970s, the Governments of Finland, Norway, and Sweden have shown considerable concern for the plight of rural consumers consequent on the closure of small stores in sparsely populated areas. In each country, special commissions were established to consider the consequences of retail concentration and legislation has been introduced to provide aid to small retail business in rural areas. The paper examines the background to this legislation and compares and contrasts the measures adopted in each of the three countries. While the policies attempt to improve the viability of rural small stores, it is argued that the measures are essentially a special type of consumer policy and that not only is there a need for more research into the effectiveness of the policies, but that perhaps the measures ought to be extended somewhat, particularly to protect the interests of consumers in urban areas.

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Staatliche Unterstützung des kleinen Einzelhandels: eine skandinavische Form von Verbraucherpolitik

Zusammenfassung Die Regierungen Finnlands, Norwegen und Schwedens befassen sich seit etwa zhen Jahren mit der Situation von Verbrauchern in dünn besiedelten ländlichen Gebieten, die sich durch das Verschwinden kleiner Ladengeschäfte verschlechtert. Es wurden Kommissionen zur Untersuchung der Auswirkungen der Konzentration im Einzelhandel gebildet und Gesetze zur Förderung des kleinen Einzelhandels in ländlichen Gebieten erlassen. Dieser Beitrag behandelt den Hintergrund dieser Entwicklung und vergleicht die in den drei Ländern angewendeten staatlichen Maßnahmen, die in ihrem Kern als eine spezielle Form von Verbraucherpolitik betrachtet werden.Der Hintergrund für solche Stützungsmaßnahmen ist gekennzeichnet durch strukturelle Veränderungen im Einzelhandel seit dem 2. Weltkrieg. Seit den 50er Jahren und verstärkt in den Jahren zwischen 1960 und 1973 ging die Zahl der traditionellen Gemischtwarenläden um bis zu 50% zurück. Die Konzentration hat dazu geführt, daß der Kolonialwarenhandel von drei bis vier Ladenketten bestimmt wird und viele ländliche Gemeinden gar keinen oder nur noch einen einzigen örtlichen Laden besitzen.Um dieser Entwicklung entgegenzuwirken, bieten alle drei Staaten Investitionszulagen für die Modernisierung und Vergrößerung von Ladengeschäften. Norwegen und Schweden gewährt darüber hinaus auch Zuschüsse zu den laufenden Kosten. Abbildung 1 (S. 200) gibt einen Überblick über die Unterschiede, die zwischen den drei Ländern bestehen, jeweils im Bereich der staatlichen Maßnahmen, der Voraussetzungen, an die die staatliche Unterstützung geknüpft sind, und der verwaltungstechnischen Abwicklung.Die Betrachtung der Auswirkungen der Unterstützungsprogramme ergibt, daß in Norwegen nahezu 50% der infragekommenden Geschäfte eine Unterstützung erhielten und das Ladensterben im Laufe der Jahre von jährlich etwa 650 auf jetzt etwa jährlich 300 verringert werden konnte. In Finnland wurden bis Ende 1977 109 Geschäfte unterstützt; außerdem richtete die Regierung 10 neue Läden ein und kaufte zusätzlich 113 mobile Verkaufsstellen. In Schweden bekamen in den ersten vier Jahren 97 Läden eine Unterstützung, durch die für 20 000 Verbraucher in ländlichen Gegenden und weitere 5000 Feriengäste die Möglichkeit notwendiger Einkäufe gesichert werden konnte.Der Beitrag plädiert für eine Erweiterung der bisherigen Maßnahmen, um auch die tieferen Probleme des kleinen Einzelhandels angehen zu können. Er stellt dabei die wichtige soziale und wirtschaftliche Rolle heraus, die der kleine Laden im ländlichen und im städtischen Bereich übernimmt. Insofern wird der skandinavischen Gesetzgebung Modellcharakter auch für andere moderne Volkswirtschaften zugesprochen.Der Beitrag schließt ab mit einigen Vorschlägen für künftige Forschung und stellt dabei vor allem heraus (a) die Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse der staatlichen Maßnahmen, (b) die Untersuchung der Reaktionen der Händler auf die Förderungsprogramme und der Auswirkungen auf die geförderten Geschäfte und (c) die Analyse der Einstellungen und des Verhaltens der Verbraucher gegenüber kleineren Geschäften, um zu ermitteln, ob diese Geschäfte den Ansprüchen und den Bedürfnissen der örtlichen Kundschaft tatsächlich besser entsprechen. Darüber hinaus richtet sich ein eher theoretisches Interesse auf die Eigenschaften, die eine Volkswirtschaft aufweisen sollte, wenn die Unterstützung des kleinen Einzelhandels zugleich ein erfolgreiches verbraucherpolitisches Instrument sein soll.

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Knut Ekhaugen is Head of Department for Economic Research, Norwegian Productivity Institute, Akersgt. 64, Oslo 1, Norway. Sigmund Grønmo is Research Director, Norwegian Fund for Market and Distribution Research, Fredensborgveien 24, Oslo 1, Norway; and Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Oslo, Blindern, Oslo 3, Norway. David Kirby is Senior Lecturer in Geography and Director of the Small Shops Research Unit at St. David's University College, University of Wales, Lampeter. Currently he is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Norwegian Fund for Market and Distribution Research, Oslo.     

Acculturation and the influence of ethnicity on market orientation of African and Caribbean companies in Britain

Since acculturation is the process of acquiring the customs of an alternative society we assume that adapting to consumers from various cultures will be a fundamental task for African and Caribbean (A&C) companies in Britain. This study investigates market orientation of A&C service companies and their processes of cultural learning and adaptation using ethnicity as a basis for an exploratory study of the British market. The findings indicate that A&C companies serve as bicultural mediators, both accommodating their consumers and working to alter their consumption patterns to bring them into line with their own ethnic and British national market customs. The adaptation of A&C service companies to the cultural characteristics and needs of their customers results in changes to their companies, consumers and the British marketplace.     

Foreign Direct Investment in China: An Examination of the Literature

Since 1978, when China announced its ‘open-door’ policy to pursue the country's long-term national goal, the Four Modernisations, more than 220,000 foreign funded ventures have been approved. By the end of 1994 some US$300 billion of contracted investment had been agreed and US$95 billion of utilized investment, making the country the most important recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the developing world. This paper analyses the phenomenon of FDI in China. It examines the different forms and composition of FDI, reviewing its development since the early days of the ‘open-door’ policy and analysing its importance for Chinese domestic and export industries, as well as Western investor companies. Furthermore, the paper focuses on the world-wide sources of FDI in China and its distribution by both region and industry. Additionally, it reviews the existing research on FDI in China, emphasizing the investment mode of equity joint venture.