Randomised Mixture Models for Pricing Kernels

Numerous kinds of uncertainties may affect an economy, e.g. economic, political, and environmental ones. We model the aggregate impact by the uncertainties on an economy and its associated financial market by randomised mixtures of Lévy processes. We assume that market participants observe the randomised mixtures only through best estimates based on noisy market information. The concept of incomplete information introduces an element of stochastic filtering theory in constructing what we term “filtered Esscher martingales”. We make use of this family of martingales to develop pricing kernel models. Examples of bond price models are examined, and we show that the choice of the random mixture has a significant effect on the model dynamics and the types of movements observed in the associated yield curves. Parameter sensitivity is analysed and option price processes are derived. We extend the class of pricing kernel models by considering a weighted heat kernel approach, and develop models driven by mixtures of Markov processes.     

Opportunity is not everything

We experimentally investigate in village India how belief systems that hierarchize social groups affect the groups’ responses to economic opportunities. Earlier we found that making caste salient hurt low caste performance both absolutely and relative to the high caste's. To examine the possible role of mistrust, we manipulate the scope for discretion in rewarding performance. When offered a gamble in which success mechanically triggers rewards, making caste salient has no significant effect. Instead, it is in the case with scope for discretion that making caste salient creates a large caste gap in the proportion of subjects who refuse the gamble.     

Does mixed crop‐livestock farming lead to less diversified diets among smallholders? Evidence from Laos

Malnourishment continues to remain a challenge in developing countries. As the undernourished are largely smallholder farmers, it is widely assumed that farm diversification and mixed crop‐livestock agricultural systems can help alleviate this problem. However, empirical evidence in this context is limited. Hence, we use a two‐year panel's data from Laos to examine whether farm production diversity as well as a mixed crop‐livestock farming system improves household dietary diversity among smallholder farmer. The results from the fixed effects regression indicate that although farm production diversity does lead to a higher dietary diversity, the effect diminishes with continued farm diversification. The counterfactual analysis from the endogenous switching regression reveals that mixed crop‐livestock farming systems do not necessarily enhance dietary diversity. However, we further find that purchasing food from the markets plays an important role in enhancing the dietary diversity of rural smallholder farmers.     

Fair Trade and Organic Agriculture in Developing Countries: A Review

Fair trade regimes and organic agricultural systems are 2 innovations that increasingly play an important role for agriculture in developing countries. Whereas fair trade regimes have their origin in the developing countries, organic agriculture was started in the rich countries and has only recently become popular in the Third World. Both innovations can be mutually reinforcing as fair trade often combined with organic production standards opens up new market prospects. In this article we explore the opportunities and constraints of marketing organic products from developing countries under fair trade regimes. Based on available literature, we review evidence of the magnitude of organic production and fair trade systems in developing countries. We also propose a framework for studying the impact of fair traded organically produced commodities using the case of black pepper in India. The framework will generate testable hypotheses regarding the 2 innovations.     

Micro insights on the pathways to agricultural transformation: Comparative evidence from Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Most studies of agricultural transformation document the impact of agricultural income growth on macroeconomic indicators of development. Much less is known about the micro-scale changes within the farming sector that signal a transformation precipitated by agricultural income growth. This study provides a comparative analysis of the patterns of micro-level changes that occur among small-holder farmers in Uganda and Malawi in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia (SEA). Our analysis provides several important insights on agricultural transformation in these two regions. First, agricultural income in all examined countries is vulnerable to changes in precipitation and temperature, an effect that is nonlinear and asymmetric. SSA countries are more vulnerable to these weather changes. Second, exogenous increases in agricultural income in previous years improve non-farm income and trigger a change in labor allocation within the rural sector in SEA. However, this is the opposite in SSA where the increase in agricultural income reduces non-farm income, indicating a substitution effect between farm and non-farm sectors. These findings reveal clear agricultural transformation driven by agricultural income in SEA but no similar evidence in SSA.     

The determinants of entrepreneurship gender gaps: A cross‐country analysis

This paper uses aggregate data from the International Labor Organization and microeconomic data from the European Values Study to quantify gender gaps in entrepreneurship, distinguishing between gender gaps in employership and in self‐employment, and study their main empirical determinants. Our sample consists of 40 European countries and varies broadly in terms of institutional background since it includes several ex‐Communist countries. In the aggregate data we observe a gender gap in employers of 59% and a gender gap in self‐employment of 36%. These gaps have remained roughly constant in the 2000–2017 period, although there are wide differences in both their levels and evolution over time and across countries. Using microeconomic data, we find that the incidence of entrepreneurship, employership, and self‐employment among men is much larger than among women, consistent with the gaps estimated using aggregate data. Our regressions show that these gaps are still sizable even after controlling for a large set of control variables that include marital status, age, education, number of children, wealth, the participation of parents and spouse in entrepreneurship, values toward women, social capital, and prior unemployment. We identify important differences between the determinants of these gaps in ex‐Communist countries and in high‐income ones.