The Returns to Education: Microeconomics

In this paper we focus on education as a private decision to invest in "human capital" and the estimation of the rate of return to that private investment. While the literature is replete with studies that estimate the rate of return using regression methods where the estimated return is obtained as the coefficient on a years of education variable in a log wage equation that contains controls for work experience and other individual characteristics, the issue is surrounded with difficulties. We outline the theoretical arguments underpinning the empirical developments and show that the evidence on private returns to the individual is compelling. Despite some of these issues surrounding the estimation of the return to schooling, our evidence, based on estimates from a variety of datasets and specifications, is that there is an unambiguously positive effect on the earnings of an individual from participation in education. Moreover, the size of the effect seems large relative to the returns on other investments.     

Forecasting market turbulence using regime-switching models

We propose an early warning system to timely forecast turbulence in the US stock market. In a first step, a Markov-switching model with two regimes (a calm market and a turbulent market) is developed. Based on the time series of the monthly returns of the S&P 500 price index, the corresponding filtered probabilities are successively estimated. In a second step, the turbulent phase of the model is further specified to distinguish between bullish and bearish trends. For comparison only, a Markov-switching model with three states (a calm market, a turbulent bullish market, and a turbulent bearish market) is examined as well. In a third step, logistic regression models are employed to forecast the filtered probabilities provided by the Markov-switching models. A major advantage of the presented modeling framework is the timely identification of the factors driving the different phases of the capital market. In a fourth step, the early warning system is applied to an asset management case study. The results show that explicit consideration of the models’ signals yields better portfolio performance and lower portfolio risk compared to standard buy-and-hold and constant proportion portfolio insurance strategies.     

The law of proportionate effect and OECD bank sectors

The paper investigates the growth dynamics of the bank sectors in the OECD area over the period 1985–1994 and examines whether the structural financial reforms of the late 1980s have affected their growth path. Based on a test of Gibrat's law of proportionate effect, it is found that the 1985–89 period was characterized by size convergence, implying that smaller bank sectors were expanding more rapidly. However, in the 1990–1994 period the pattern reversed to proportionate growth. The analysis of the determinants of bank market growth reveals that macroeconomic growth, operational bank efficiency, credit quality, and capitalization are the main drivers of bank industry growth.     

Changes in volatility of credit spread and market efficiency during rapid growth of credit-related securities

This paper investigates the changes in credit spread volatility during 1993–2001. We find that the credit spreads between junk-grade corporate bonds and Treasury bonds were significantly more volatile in the second half of this period when credit-related securities became popular. In contrast, investment-grade bonds exhibited no significant change in volatility. The junk bonds variance ratios changed from being less than one to greater than one. Using the GJR-Garch model, the conditional volatilities of junk bonds increased in the second half of the period and the mean reversion speeds slowed, suggesting a longer time for mean reversion to occur. Our analysis rules out treasury volatility, credit spread level, equity market return, T-bill rate, curvature of the Treasury curve, financial crisis, quantity of defaults and standard deviation of defaults as explanations for the increase in junk bond volatility. In contrast, volatility of equity returns provides a partial explanation of junk bond spread volatility in the later period.     

Linking participatory and GIS-based land use planning methods: A case study from Burkina Faso

Sustainable land use planning is crucial for realizing the aim of food security and for combating land degradation in the Sahel. A participatory land use planning workshop was organised in a village in the eastern region of Burkina Faso to investigate land use problems, their causes, effects and possible solutions. Participatory research tools and GIS were combined to get insight into possible conflicts or synergies between different land use options as mapped by different ethnic groups. Pictograms were used to locate alternative land use options on the map, after which they were digitised for analysis with GIS. The workshop confirms the importance of integrating scientific and local knowledge to develop concrete options for sustainable land use that fit to local realities and aspirations. Local people are knowledgeable about the driving forces behind land degradation, they take actions to combat the effects of degradation, and they have concrete ideas about alternative land use options. The use of GIS proved its added value in the participatory process of integrated land use planning. The maps that were produced also facilitate discussions between community members, researchers and government representatives at the regional level, both regarding current land use problems and regarding alternative options as perceived by the local population.     

The limits to IPR standardization policies as evidenced by strategic patenting in UMTS

The impact of patents and patent royalties are a major concern of standards setting organizations. This study examines the patents filed in the standardization of UMTS, the third-generation mobile phone technology developed under sponsorship of the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) and others, using a patent policy developed in response to issues faced in the earlier GSM (née Group Special Mobile) standardization. After contrasting firm strategies and policy effectiveness between the GSM and UMTS efforts, the paper reviews the potential impact of potential changes to the ETSI IPR (intellectual property rights) policy.     

Enrolment in higher education in The Netherlands

Summary In this paper we investigate the determinants of higher education enrolment in The Netherlands and estimate three different economic models referring to investment motives, consumption motives, and a combination of these two. By estimating these models for different years (1982 and 1991) we identify changes over time. The importance of financial variables appears to be vanishing. Moreover, we find that enrolment is no longer related to ability variables. We offer explanations for these findings. Finally, we employ the results to simulate some policy measures.