A note on the independence of irrelevant alternatives in probabilistic choice models

The purpose of this note is to show that there is no necessary relationship between the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property and stochastic independence of the errors in probabilistic choice models.     

Influence of livelihoods on climate change adaptation for smallholder farmers in the Mekong Delta Vietnam

Farmers in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta face a wide range of climate-related and hydrological factors which threaten rice production. Smallholder farmers must adapt to climate change to sustain rice production as their central and most important livelihood activity. A sample was stratified across agro-ecological areas in the Delta affected by flooding, alluvial soils, acid sulphate soils, and saline water intrusion and by derived farmer typologies. A rural livelihoods approach was used in focus group discussions and in-depth interviews to identify and enumerate enabling and constraining adaptation factors. Smallholders experienced diverse natural hazards such as floods, abnormal rains, high temperatures, water scarcity, and salinity intrusion specific to the agro-ecological areas. Adaptation was constrained by labour shortages, water quality, topography, access to combine harvesters, transportation infrastructure, dryers and household savings. Adaptation was enabled by farming techniques and experience, cooperative groups, water quantity, access to information, and ability to purchase agro-chemicals through credit. Small farmers (< 1?ha) were more constrained than large farmers (> 1?ha) who had an expanded livelihood asset base. A range of policy implications are discussed, but adaptation is not just about technological fixes but requires overall improvements in a range of human, social and financial components.     

The contribution of Western fast food to fast-growing body mass in China

The westernization of Asian countries has led to the rapid expansion of Western-style fast-food restaurants, which are believed to be fueling an unprecedented rise in body mass in these countries. This study tests this belief using longitudinal data from China. Exploiting the opening of a Western-style fast-food restaurant in a particular community, we conduct a transition analysis to make a more convincing causal interpretation than the standard cross-sectional or fixed-effects approach. Considering several measures of fatness, we find no robust evidence of Western fast food having a substantial effect overall, but there is some indication of effect heterogeneity.     

The Plausibility of Agriculture-Led Development

Within the context of a simple dynamic general equilibrium framework, the model proposed in this paper formally characterizes the path in which a successful transformation in agriculture as a result of an improvement in agricultural technology can conceivably help some developing countries raise rural income, which in turn boosts effective demand for domestically produced, labor-intensive manufactured goods. Consequently, the price of nontraded manufactures goes up, leading to higher production in this sector, and subsequently higher wages. In the longer run, higher wage levels would result in larger aggregate savings, which in turn finances the economy's industrialization.     

FORECASTING STOCK INDEX VOLATILITY: COMPARING IMPLIED VOLATILITY AND THE INTRADAY HIGH–LOW PRICE RANGE

The intraday high–low price range offers volatility forecasts similarly efficient to high‐quality implied volatility indexes published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) for four stock market indexes: S&P 500, S&P 100, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrials. Examination of in‐sample and out‐of‐sample volatility forecasts reveals that neither implied volatility nor intraday high–low range volatility consistently outperforms the other.     

Assessing holiday satisfaction of Australian travellers in Vietnam: An application of the HOLSAT model

The hotel business model has been diversified in response to the various needs of consumers. Many previous studies focused on the alteration factors of the hotel business model from the consumer's point of view. Although it is one of the factors that affect alteration of the hotel business model, the manager's perspective is also an important alteration factor. This article emphasizes that it is necessary to consider not only the consumer side, but also the management side based on two approaches of the strategy theory: the positioning approach and the resource-based approach.

Surveys were conducted by mail in order to gather information regarding what managers in Japan consider to be important components of a hotel. As a result, “location” was found to be the most important component, followed by “annex facilities” and “deployment system”. Once the components were ordered according to their relative importance, a strong relationship was found between the managers' preferences and the characteristics of “syukuhakusyutai-type” hotels, which are ‘direct management’ (DM) hotels located usually in the city. In Japan, the number of “syukuhakusyutai-type” hotels has recently increased, therefore capturing the spotlight in the hotel industry. However, the results of this research are not compared with those of much previous research conducted on hotel choice attributes, because the measured variables differed significantly.     

Effects of aid for trade on extensive and intensive margins of greenfield FDI

Using a panel dataset of 105 developing countries for the period 2003–15, this paper assesses the effects of Aid for Trade (AfT) on greenfield FDI flows to the aid‐recipient countries. Particularly, this paper classifies the total dollar value of greenfield FDI flows to each recipient country in terms of four different layers: the extensive and intensive margins of projects as well as the extensive and intensive margins of source countries. Applying the system GMM estimator, this paper finds that AfT not only increases the dollar value of FDI flows to the recipient countries but also helps diversify the greenfield projects and source countries. In addition, this paper finds that AfT has a greater effect for greenfield FDI from donor (developed) countries than from non‐donor (developing) countries. Among the three components of AfT, aid for trade‐related infrastructure and aid for trade policy regulations are found to have positive links with greenfield FDI, irrespective of source‐country groups, yet their effects are larger for developed source countries. In contrast, aid for building productive capacity hinders greenfield FDI flows from non‐donor countries, while it promotes greenfield FDI from donor countries. We offer some explanations for this finding.     

Intermediate levels of property rights and the emerging housing market in Ho Chi Minh City,Vietnam

Vietnam introduced a Policy of Renovation (‘Doi Moi’ Policy) to restructure the economy in 1986. Under this policy, the Land Use Right Certificate was introduced as a form of tenure for agricultural land and urban land, according to the Land Laws of 1987 and 1993, respectively. However, by 2001, most properties and/or land in Vietnam still did not have a legal title. Although Vietnam's land reforms in the 1990s provided some of the weakest private rights among the transition countries, big cities like Ho Chi Minh City are presently homes to thriving housing markets. Transactions of ‘property without a physical entity and legal title’ in the real estate market show how property ownership can be formed in order to operate within different institutional contexts. This paper highlights that ‘intermediate levels of property rights’ are the driving forces behind the thriving housing market in Ho Chi Minh City.     

The Psychological Contract in Employment in Vietnam: Preliminary Empirical Evidence from an Economy in Transition

The psychological contract is defined as a set of mutual and promissory obligations perceived by employees and employers in their employment relationship. Although this concept had been extensively researched in the West, little empirical evidence in other contexts was available. This study operationalized the concept of psychological contract in Vietnam, an economy in transition. From a sample of 220 questionnaires of employees and their corresponding human resource managers, it found some distinct features of the psychological contract. Furthermore, this articles confirmed the congruence in the perceptions of employees and employers about contract obligations and fulfilments.     

Strategic timing of earnings announcements?

Using firm‐specific regressions, I show that earnings response coefficient differ across firms. However, there is no evidence of differential earnings response coefficient to a certain earnings announcement time. By switching to a different announcement time from its preferred time, a firm does not gain a softer market reaction. I compare research results from a firm‐specific method and from a pooled time‐series and cross‐sectional method and demonstrate that they differ significantly due to large heterogeneity across firms. I suggest that researchers should adopt a firm‐specific approach to avoid misleading results and to achieve improved estimations.