Classificatory income smoothing: The impact of a change in regime of reporting financial performance

Financial Reporting Standard No. 3 (FRS3) regulated the reporting of financial performance by UK firms from 1993 until the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards in 2005. FRS3 outlawed extraordinary items, but allowed a clearer distinction between recurring and transitory income by giving firms discretion over the classifications of unusual (i.e. exceptional) items and the option to disclose alternative EPS. Through these provisions FRS3 increased the scope for classificatory choices as a means to highlight persistent profitability. We examine the impact of FRS3 on classificatory smoothing by UK firms and document a significant rise in this practice post-FRS3. We find that this increase is due mainly to deviations of net income from expected earnings inducing a significantly higher level of classificatory smoothing post-FRS3. Additional analysis shows that earnings are substantially more persistent at the pre-exceptional level post-FRS3. Overall, our results suggest greater use of classificatory choices to highlight sustainable profitability after the change in performance reporting regime.     

In search of meaning: Lessons,resources and next steps for computational analysis of financial discourse

We critically assess mainstream accounting and finance research applying methods from computational linguistics (CL) to study financial discourse. We also review common themes and innovations in the literature and assess the incremental contributions of studies applying CL methods over manual content analysis. Key conclusions emerging from our analysis are: (a) accounting and finance research is behind the curve in terms of CL methods generally and word sense disambiguation in particular; (b) implementation issues mean the proposed benefits of CL are often less pronounced than proponents suggest; (c) structural issues limit practical relevance; and (d) CL methods and high quality manual analysis represent complementary approaches to analyzing financial discourse. We describe four CL tools that have yet to gain traction in mainstream AF research but which we believe offer promising ways to enhance the study of meaning in financial discourse. The four tools are named entity recognition (NER), summarization, semantics and corpus linguistics.     

Decision tree analysis and real options: a reconciliation

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate in a simple framework how decision tree analysis (DTA) and real options approach (ROA) yield the same results when markets are complete. The common scepticism regarding DTA has its roots in the incorrect assumption that one can apply the same discount rate to the project cash flows and the value of the investment opportunity when the decision maker has the option to defer investment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implied correlation index: A new measure of diversification

Most approaches in forecasting future correlation depend on the use of historical information as their basic information set. Recently, there have been some attempts to use the notion of “implied” correlation as a more accurate measure of future correlation. This study proposes an innovative methodology for backing‐out implied correlation measures from index options. This new measure called implied correlation index reflects the market view of the future level of the diversification in the market portfolio represented by the index. The methodology is applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and the statistical properties and the dynamics of the proposed implied correlation measure are examined. The evidence of this study indicates that the implied correlation index fluctuates substantially over time and displays strong dynamic dependence. Moreover, there is a systematic tendency for the implied correlation index to increase when the market index returns decrease and/or the market volatility increases, indicating limited diversification when it is needed most. Finally, the forecast performance of the implied correlation index is assessed. Although the implied correlation index is a biased forecast of realized correlation, it has a high explanatory power, and it is orthogonal to the information set compared to a historical forecast. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:171–197, 2005     

The role of optimal threats in auction design

This paper studies revenue-maximizing auctions when buyers' outside options depend on their private information and are endogenously chosen by the seller. We show that the revenue-maximizing assignment of the object can depend crucially on the outside options that the seller can choose as threats. Depending on the shape of outside options, sometimes an optimal mechanism allocates the object in an ex-post efficient way, and, other times, buyers obtain the object more often than is efficient.     

IMMUNITY

Legal provisions that protect elected politicians from prosecution have been common throughout history and still exist in most democracies. We provide the first systematic measurement of immunity and study, theoretically and empirically, its relation to corruption. Theory predicts that immunity is a double-edged sword. To test whether immunity is a vice or a virtue, we quantify immunity enjoyed by heads of government, ministers, and legislators in 90 countries. Controlling for standard determinants of corruption, we find that stronger immunity is associated with greater corruption. Instrumental variable estimations using immunity at the first democratic constitution suggest the effect could be causal.     

On the informed seller problem: optimal information disclosure

We consider a revenue-maximizing seller who, before proposing a mechanism to sell her object(s), observes a vector of signals correlated with buyers’ valuations. Each buyer knows only the signal that the seller observes about him, but not the signals she observes about other buyers. The seller first chooses how to disclose her information and then chooses a revenue-maximizing mechanism. We allow for very general disclosure policies, that can be random, public, private, or any mixture of these possibilities. Through the disclosure of information privately, the seller can create correlation in buyers’ private information, which then consist of valuations plus beliefs. For the standard independent private values model, we show that information revelation is irrelevant: irrespective of the disclosure policy an optimal mechanism for this informed seller generates expected revenue that is equal to her maximal revenue under full information disclosure. For more general allocation environments that allow also for interdependent, for common values, and for multiple items, disclosure policies may matter, and the best the seller can do is to disclose no information at all.     

The Demand for Organic and Conventional Produce in London,UK: A System Approach

The majority of studies on consumer demand for organic products neglect the presence of non‐organic competitors, ignoring their effect on consumer demand for organics. This article uses a demand system which includes both organic and non‐organic fruits and vegetables, with actual (as opposed to stated) data for household purchases. Estimation of our model provides empirical evidence on the interrelationships between organic and non‐organic products, as the relevant cross‐price elasticities. Own‐price elasticities indicate that organic fruits and vegetables are more price elastic than their non‐organic counterparts, and that lower social class households with children have the most own‐price elastic demand. Cross‐price elasticities indicate relatively strong loyalty to organic products.     

Ratings shopping and asset complexity: A theory of ratings inflation

Many identify inflated credit ratings as one contributor to the recent financial-market turmoil. We develop an equilibrium model of the market for ratings and use it to examine possible origins of and cures for ratings inflation. In the model, asset issuers can shop for ratings—observe multiple ratings and disclose only the most favorable—before auctioning their assets. When assets are simple, agencies’ ratings are similar and the incentive to ratings shop is low. When assets are sufficiently complex, ratings differ enough that an incentive to shop emerges. Thus, an increase in the complexity of recently issued securities could create a systematic bias in disclosed ratings, despite the fact that each ratings agency produces an unbiased estimate of the asset's true quality. Increasing competition among agencies would only worsen this problem. Switching to an investor-initiated ratings system alleviates the bias, but could collapse the market for information.