The historian and the future

Historians had to come to terms with the fact that there is no ‘absolute’ past, long before forecasters were pondering the benefits of the ‘absolute’ future. They have also had to come to terms with their style of presentation, their personal biases, and the fact that they are grounded in the present and are therefore influenced by present preoccupations. Historians and futures researchers have much in common. This article explores the extent of their common ground and how it might be extended.     

The Hero as Traveler,The Traveler as Hero

This article uses an insight from the French scholar Michel de Certeau to the effect that all stories are travel stories involving spatial transference and the theories of the Russian folklorist Vladimir Propp, as elaborated in his classic work Morphology of the Folktale, to argue all heroes are travelers of one sort or another. It suggests, that in addition to the fact that all heroes are travelers, all travelers are—broadly speaking—heroes and heroines.     

Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents

Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of \(1/2\), and (ii) for moderate beliefs agents simply report \(1/2\). Applying a prospect theory model of risk preferences, we show that loss aversion can explain both of these behavioral phenomena. Using the insights of this model, we develop a simple off-the-shelf probability assessment mechanism that encourages loss-averse agents to report true beliefs. In an experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this modification in both eliminating uninformative reports and eliciting true probabilistic beliefs.     

Public evaluation of landscape content and change: Several examples from Europe

This paper considers rural land use by analysing stakeholder values and perceptions concerning various landscape components. The purpose is to show that landscape content and land cover interactions with societal connections should be a base for land use development. The practical goal is to deliberate research tools to quantify public opinions and attitudes, which could form bases for developing of decision support tools. The main research objectives are: (1) to assess existing opinions concerning land use changes and provide a clearer insight into public attitudes to the role of woodlands for an integrated development of the countryside; (2) to place ecological and socio-economic values on inanimate natural components of landscapes; and (3) to assess values and preferences held by land use policy and management experts regarding multiple landscape components and features to assist in decision-making. Through the different levels of importance (values) accorded by the respondents to the integration of nature components in rural landscapes public priorities were identified. The paper develops an understanding of why certain aspects of land use changes are unfavourably viewed by some people and favourably received by others. It suggests some innovative perspectives on the areas of consensus and conflict between people, providing initial information for the selection and evaluation of land use management decisions.     

One country,two currencies: The adoption of the Hong Kong currency board, 1983

Currency boards have had an enduring attraction as a solution to exchange rate and monetary credibility for small open economies, despite few successful examples. In this context, the case of Hong Kong stands out for its longevity; it survived the handover to China, the Asian financial crises in 1997, and the global crises in 2007–8 and 2020. The 1983 currency crisis and the decision to link the exchange rate to the US$ is usually treated as an outcome of local political uncertainty due to the Sino-British negotiations which set the framework for how Hong Kong would fit with the rest of China after 1997. We present fresh archival evidence from Hong Kong and London to reveal the year-long debates over Hong Kong's monetary system after a drop in the exchange rate in September 1982 and to demonstrate how most of the protagonists in Hong Kong and London came only reluctantly to accept the idea of re-pegging the dollar once public expectations had been raised. We also show how the mixture of currency and banking instability affected the terms of the negotiations in 1982 and 1983 and set the framework for the one country, two currencies system that prevails today.