Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm‐level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing*

What happens to firms during periods of deep economic crisis? Depending on the nature of the crisis, the general effects are well known. However, owing to data availability, there are relatively few detailed firm‐level studies. With the aid of an unusually rich database, the present paper investigates the effects of Indonesia's 1997–1998 crisis on manufacturing establishments. Consistent with studies of other crisis episodes, foreign ownership and prior export orientation are found to be highly significant determinants of survival and recovery. The effects of firm size are ambiguous. The industry in which firms are located, in particular its factor proportions, is also found to be significant.     

Pandemic (COVID‐19) Policy,Regional Cooperation and the Emerging Global Production Network†

In this paper, we explore the possible policy responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic shock as well as the related economic (financial crisis) shocks on trade and global value chains (GVC) in East Asia. We find that regional policy coordination is critical to mitigate and isolate the pandemic shock. It is important to identify the pandemic events early to flatten the pandemic curve at the national and regional level. This supports a recent study by the World Bank (2020), which highlights the importance of early mitigation policies during the pandemic shock. The cost of the pandemic and economic shocks will increase significantly when several countries in the region experience the pandemic shock concurrently. In this case, flattening the regional pandemic curve becomes important. The results also indicate the need for greater coordination in East Asia to mitigate the pending economic shock in terms of unemployment, corporate bankruptcy and financial market fragility. The paper also highlights that the stability of the GVC network is critical during the pandemic in terms of hedging the risk of disruptions to the procurement of critical medical and health products as well as maintaining service linkages to manufacturing, such as the logistics sector. Regional policy coordination and the stability of GVC will be valuable in the post‐pandemic recovery of the region.     

Exporting and Upgrading of Product Portfolio: Evidence from Korea,Japan and Indonesia*

This paper examines the effect of exporting on ‘product portfolio upgrading’ in a plant, using plant–product matched datasets for Korea, Japan and Indonesia. First, we find that a substantial part of aggregate shipments growth is explained by net adding of products for all three countries. Second, export starters are more likely to add products and to change product shares in plants than never exporters. Third, added products tend to have higher product quality than dropped products. Therefore, our results imply that the entry to export markets plays an important role in product portfolio upgrading: the process of reallocation from lower‐attribute to higher‐attribute products.     

Did Better Firms Enter the Indonesian Manufacturing Sector after the 1997–98 Crisis?

Motivated by a concern that Indonesia is on the path to deindustrialisation, this article uses data from 1991 to 2009 to examine whether there were differences in the characteristics of entrants to the Indonesian manufacturing sector before and after the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis. It finds that entrants after the crisis were larger or less dependent on credit than their predecessors, suggesting that they were more resilient to economic shocks. Yet entrants after the crisis exported relatively less than their predecessors. Meanwhile, productivity levels were the same before and after the crisis, indicating that entrants were able to match the productivity level of incumbents. Contrary to the concerns about deindustrialisation, these characteristics may simply reflect a dynamic that resulted in better or more resilient firms entering the industry after the crisis.     

The Evolution of Competition Policy in Indonesia

This paper assesses the evolution of the new Indonesian competition law passed in 1999, and the creation of the Competition Commission. The first half of the paper traces the debate and process of deregulation and liberalization that preceded the introduction of the law. Whilst deregulation did lead to increased competition and efficiency, distortions to competition in the goods sector still persisted due to ad hoc and non transparent measures taken due to government interventions and vested interests. The services and infrastructure sectors were only partially liberalized. The second half of the paper evaluates the debate on competition law and assesses its introduction and implementation. In the brief period of implementation to date, the tension between a pro-competition and an anti-bigness interpretation of the Law is evident. The paper concludes that ambiguities in the law should be eliminated, that the competition agency focuses on advocacy and introducing transparent procedures rather than hastening towards concluding investigations, and that competition issues faced by independent regulatory agencies in the services and infrastructure sectors should be introduced carefully.     

Ownership and Energy Efficiency in Indonesian Manufacturing

Using 1996 and 2006 census data on medium-large plants in Indonesian manufacturing, we examine whether foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) and stateowned enterprises (SOEs) used purchased energy more efficiently than local, private plants, finding that the correlation between plant ownership and total energy intensity, gas intensity, and coal intensity was generally weak in both years. Second, we ask whether energy efficiency in private plants was affected by the presence of MNEs or SOEs in high-energy-consuming industries. In 1996, private energy intensities were often positively correlated with the presence of SOEs and majorityforeign MNEs and negatively correlated with the presence of wholly foreign or minority-foreign MNEs, but in 2006 the corresponding results differed substantially. This suggests that ownership-related differentials in energy intensity and intra-industry energy-intensity spillovers are not pronounced. If policymakers are concerned with improving energy efficiency in Indonesian manufacturing, plant ownership should not be a major consideration.     

Escaping the Middle‐Income Trap in Southeast Asia: Micro Evidence on Innovation,Productivity, and Globalization

Microdata studies on innovation, productivity, and globalization are relatively new to the Southeast Asian region. Evidence from microdata studies in middle‐income countries provide valuable evidence for policymaking aimed at graduating these countries to high‐income status. Globalization via trade and foreign direct investment should continue to be important development strategies. A more nuanced approach focusing on exporters and potential exporters, especially SMEs, are likely to be needed. The extent of foreign participation is also likely to have important implications for technological spillovers.     

SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Summary Political and economic stability prevailed in Indonesia to early June 2007. President Yudhoyono made some badly needed changes to his cabinet, but left the core economic team unchanged. This inspired further confidence in the government's economic policies, yet it still fails to satisfy public expectations. The Lapindo mudflow disaster continues to weigh on the government, with no clear strategy apparent.

The economy shows stable macroeconomic fundamentals. Growth remained at around 6% p.a., driven mainly by investment and exports. The exchange rate strengthened and the stock market continued its rise. The central bank lowered the policy interest rate further, but this is likely to have little effect on growth, and brings some macroeconomic risks. Increasing or even maintaining current growth rates could be a challenge, given that export growth depends strongly on the global commodity boom, and improvements in the investment climate remain uncertain.

The parliament passed the long-awaited new investment law, which promises a more open and friendly investment regime. Doubts surround the implementation of the law, however. There are concerns that the new negative list could be overly protective and that the continued role of the Investment Coordinating Board may cause coordination problems among agencies and with sub-national governments. Boosting growth in manufacturing could be the key to higher overall growth. Structural change in the manufacturing sector over recent years has seen labour-intensive industry decline in terms of both output and exports, mainly because of rigid labour policies.

Efforts to boost private sector investment in infrastructure still show limited success. Implementation of regulatory and bureaucratic reforms is ineffective, and domestic financing remains in short supply. Public provision of infrastructure needs to increase, but suffers from shortcomings in fiscal management and a mismatch between the often cross-district nature of infrastructure projects and the now strongly district-based budgetary authority. Electricity supply exemplifies how the lack of well-designed investment strategies limits Indonesia's growth potential. Power sector investment has stagnated despite strong growth in electricity demand, and current plans for coal-based capacity expansion lack thorough planning.

An emerging long-term challenge for policy makers is climate change. Ahead of the December UN climate change conference in Bali, recent reports have highlighted Indonesia's vulnerability to climate change and its contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, predominantly from deforestation. Slowing or halting of deforestation is unlikely to occur without large-scale international financial flows.