Bifurcation analysis of Zellner's Marshallian Macroeconomic Model

The Marshallian Macroeconomic Model in Zellner and Israilevich (2005) provides a novel way to examine sectoral dynamics through the introduction of a dynamic entry/exit equation in addition to the usual demand and supply functions found in models of this class. In this paper we examine the possibility of cyclical behavior in the Marshallian Macroeconomic Model and investigate the existence of a Hopf bifurcation with respect to the parameter in the entry/exit equation.     

Impact of ICT on trade in different technology groups: analysis and implications

The link between ICT use and trade flows has been widely discussed in the literature. It has been argued that the use of ICT contributes to the fall of trade costs. The analysis presented identifies the role of a specific ICT variable, namely the extent of use of Internet by the business community, in international trade. The export flows between 40 countries (OECD countries plus Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa) are analyzed. The results are presented for different technology groups of products, from high-tech to low-tech. The relationship between the use of Internet and trade in ICT goods is also considered.     

What explains the intention to bring mobile phones for recycling? A study on university students in China and Germany

The analysis investigates the determinants of the intention to bring mobile phones for recycling. The paper is based on data regarding the determinants of bringing mobile phones for recycling collected from university students in Autumn 2016 (N = 1013) in both the Chinese and German academia. Using structural equation modeling, we examine the direct and indirect effects of social norms, knowledge about the environmental benefits of recycling and a pro-environmental attitude on the intention to recycle mobile phones. We find confirmation that attitude, social norms, and knowledge contribute positively and significantly to the intention to bring phones for recycling. As for three mediating effects tested, attitude mediates the relationship between knowledge and intention, as well as between social norms and intention. Knowledge as a mediator between social norms and attitude does not have a highly significant effect. Looking at the results of the Chinese and German sub-samples, we find that social norms have no direct effect on intention for the German sub-sample, but an indirect one through attitude. Knowledge has no significant effect for the German sub-sample. Results for the Chinese sub-sample indicate an indirect effect of social norms on attitude via knowledge, while knowledge itself has an indirect effect on intention through attitude.     

Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within New Keynesian models

As is well known in systems theory, the parameter space of most dynamic models is stratified into subsets, each of which supports a different kind of dynamic solution. Since we do not know the parameters with certainty, knowledge of the location of the bifurcation boundaries is of fundamental importance. Without knowledge of the location of such boundaries, there is no way to know whether the confidence region about the parameters’ point estimates might be crossed by one or more such boundaries. If there are intersections between bifurcation boundaries and a confidence region, the resulting stratification of the confidence region damages inference robustness about dynamics, when such dynamical inferences are produced by the usual simulations at the point estimates only. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New Keynesian models, which have become common in monetary policy formulations. As a result, we explore bifurcations within the class of New Keynesian models. We study different specifications of monetary policy rules within the New Keynesian functional structure. In initial research in this area, Barnett and Duzhak (Physica A 387(15):3817–3825, 2008) found a New Keynesian Hopf bifurcation boundary, with the setting of the policy parameters influencing the existence and location of the bifurcation boundary. Hopf bifurcation is the most commonly encountered type of bifurcation boundary found among economic models, since the existence of a Hopf bifurcation boundary is accompanied by regular oscillations within a neighborhood of the bifurcation boundary. Now, following a more extensive and systematic search of the parameter space, we also find the existence of Period Doubling (flip) bifurcation boundaries in the class of models. Central results in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the considered cases. We also solve numerically for the location and properties of the Period Doubling bifurcation boundaries and their dependence upon policy-rule parameter settings.