Modelling exchange of probabilistic opinions

Summary. This paper studies how communication or exchange of opinions influences correlation of beliefs. The paper focuses on a situation in which agents communicate with each other infinitely many times without observing data. It is an extension to the ‘Expert Problem’ in Bayesian theory, where the informational flow is asymmetric. Moreover, this paper generalizes the existing literature of communication that employs the common prior assumption (CPA) by allowing for heterogeneous beliefs. Some basic convergence results are shown in contrast with the results obtained under the CPA. Furthermore, several economic implications of the basic results are provided. Received: August 27, 2001; revised version: April 16, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" The results presented in this paper are taken from my Ph.D. thesis at Stanford University. I gratefully acknowledge the inspiration obtained from innumerable discussions with Mordecai Kurz about this subject. Also, I appreciate comments from Kenneth J. Arrow, Peter J. Hammond, Maurizio Motolese, Carsten K. Nielsen, Ho-Mou Wu and the anonymous referee.     

Pairs trading under transaction costs using model predictive control

Model predictive control with proportional transactions costs provides a good approximation to the optimal trading strategy     

Bridging the cultural divide: Trust formation in university–industry research collaborations in the US,Japan, and South Korea

Academia and industry increasingly work together, but this is not always an easy endeavor. In this article we investigate how relational mechanisms facilitate trust formation in university–industry research collaborations (UICs) in three countries and contribute to the understanding of international similarities and differences in UICs by considering institutional factors, specifically, the strength and maturity of UICs in each country. Analyzing survey data of 618 recent UICs in the US, Japan, and South Korea, we identify the activities of innovation champions as a critical trust building mechanism between firms and universities that complements initial trust formation through tie strength, partner reputation, and contractual safeguards. We find that partner reputation and champion behavior are more important for trust formation in South Korea than in the US and Japan, indicating that in ‘emerging UIC countries’ where most firms and universities have little collaboration experience, reputation and the leadership by innovation champions are more important for trust formation in UICs than in ‘advanced UIC countries’ with strong and mature UIC networks. From a public policy perspective, our findings suggest that networks between firms and universities should be generally strengthened and collaboration partners should be provided with effective contractual safeguards to enhance trust formation in UICs.     

Non‐compliance with the Minimum Wage Law when Completely New Minimum Wage Laws Are Established: The Case of South Africa

Abstract: Using the case of South Africa, we study compliance with the minimum wage law when completely new minimum wage levels are established. By even the best estimate, the compliance rate in South Africa would not exceed 40 per cent for the agricultural sector and 30 per cent for the domestic worker sector. The compliance rates by subpopulation groups reveal that the compliance rate is low where the cost to comply with the minimum wage law is high, implying that government inspections are not done where they are likely to have the highest payoff. However, if the government tries to enforce the policy more strictly, the poor/less skilled would be adversely affected.     

Factor-Market Distortions, Dynamic Stability, and Paradoxical Comparative Statics

In the late 1960s and early 1970s there was a strong revival of interest in the role of factor-market distortions in those branches of our subject which rely on the Lerner–Samuelson two-by-two model of production. Among the legacies from that period were several comparative statical propositions which seemed counterintuitive or paradoxical. However, the revival lost momentum when confronted with Neary's observation that the major paradoxes are associated with unstable equilibria and therefore rarely observed. On the other hand, there are now seen to be several errors in Neary's analysis. For example, in the important case of a closed economy (and, by interpretation, in the case of a large open economy) he overlooked the fact that paradoxes can be associated with stable equilibria.     

Spatial provision of local public goods with spillover effects

Most of the works dealing with local public goods are aspatial in their treatment since they consider only the case of a pure local public good; such works do not address the problem of where the good is to be supplied. In this paper, an initial attempt to treat the distribution of an impure local public good as a choice function is made within the framework of optimum urban land use. The distance-decay nature of spillover effects inherent in an impure local public good is explicitly considered by adopting a negative exponential function. To highlight the spatial aspect of an impure local public good, a two-supply-site problem with a log-linear utility function is formulated to determine the optimal supply sites. It is shown that if the weight of the utility function on the public service is greater than or equal to that on land, then the local public good is exclusively supplied at the center. Otherwise, separate supply sites can be optimal.     

The impacts of robotization on macro and sectoral economies within a world econometric model

A world model of industry and trade is developed to evaluate the probable global impact of robotization on the macro and sectoral economies. It is found that robotization in Japan and Korea has a positive impact on their economic growth, whereas robotization in the United States apparently has a negative impact on economic growth. It is also found that the international impacts of robotization in Japan are negative for the United States, but positive for the Korean economy.