Evo Morales and the MST in Bolivia: Continuities and Discontinuities in Agrarian Reform

There is a widespread understanding in critical scholarly literature that the government of Evo Morales is fundamentally challenging the neoliberal order in Bolivia. The empirical record of Morales' first five years in office, however, illustrates significant neoliberal continuities in the country's political economy. At the same time, the most important social movements that resisted neoliberalism prior to Morales' election have been considerably demobilized in its wake. This gives rise to the critique that the Morales government has merely implemented a more politically stable version of the model of accumulation it inherited. This paper draws on recent field research in Bolivia to make a contribution to this broader research agenda on reconstituted neoliberalism. Our focus is twofold. On the one hand, the paper examines the continuities of agrarian class relations from the INRA law at the height of neoliberalism in 1996 to the various agrarian reform initiatives introduced since Morales assumed office in 2006. On the other hand, the paper traces the mobilization of the Bolivian Landless Peasants' Movement (MST) in response to the failure of the 1996 neoliberal agrarian reform, followed by the movement's demobilization after Morales' 2006 agrarian reform initiative. The paper explores this demobilization in the context of agrarian relations that have remained largely unchanged in the same period. Finally, the paper draws on recent reflections by MST members who, to varying degrees, seem to be growing critical of Morales' failure to fundamentally alter rural class relations, and the difficulties of remobilizing their movement at the present time.     

Nonlinear models with panel data

Panel data play an important role in empirical economics. With panel data one can answer questions about microeconomic dynamic behavior that could not be answered with cross sectional data. Panel data techniques are also useful for analyzing cross sectional data with grouping. This paper discusses some issues related to specification and estimation of nonlinear models using panel data.JEL Classification: C230The research behind this paper was supported by the National Science Foundation, the Gregory C. Chow Econometric Research Program at Princeton University, and Danish National Research Foundation (through CAM at the University of Copenhagen). The author thanks Ekaterini Kyriazidou, Hong Li, Marina Sallustro, and the editors for helpful suggestions.     

The informativeness of estimation moments

This paper introduces measures for how each moment contributes to the precision of parameter estimates in generalized method of moments settings. For example, one of the measures asks what would happen to the variance of the parameter estimates if a particular moment was dropped from the estimation. The measures are all easy to compute. We illustrate the usefulness of the measures through two simple examples as well as an application to a model of joint retirement planning of couples. We estimate the model using the British Household Panel Survey, and we find evidence of complementarities in leisure. Our sensitivity measures illustrate that the estimate of the complementarity is primarily informed by the distribution of differences in planned retirement dates. The estimated econometric model can be interpreted as a bivariate ordered-choice model that allows for simultaneity. This makes the model potentially useful in other applications.     

Diffusion of mobile telephony: Analysis of determinants in Cameroon

This paper explores the diffusion of mobile telephone technology in Cameroon by identifying and analyzing the determinants of this diffusion. Studying the diffusion of mobile communications in African countries by integrating them into panels of developing countries is problematic. This approach is likely to mask the intrinsic differences as concerns the diffusion process. This survey shows, through the estimation of an S-shaped growth curve, that the Logistic model best describes the diffusion of mobile phone technology in Cameroon. Income, openness to competition and the use of SMS are key forces driving this diffusion. Forecasts indicate an increase of almost 70% in the demand by 2026 as far as mobile phone use in Cameroon is concerned. This implies not only an improvement in operators' and State's revenues, but also, the need to invest in infrastructures. Our recommendation therefore calls for a greater liberalization of the mobile phone market in Cameroon. In addition, given the complementary relationship between the core and the mobile networks, infrastructural investments are also needed in both sectors.