WORLD CUP 2010: SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES AND POLICY CHALLENGES INFORMED BY THE EXPERIENCE OF GERMANY 2006

The paper provides an ex post analysis of the financial burden and economic benefits of the World Cup (WC) in Germany 2006. Based on the usual cost-benefit measures, the experience of WC 2006 appears to be in line with existing empirical research on large sporting events and sports stadiums, which have rarely identified significant net economic benefits. The lessons from Germany 2006 provide a context for analyzing the potential risks and benefits for South Africa (SA), the WC hosts in 2010. For SA, a careful analysis might be even more urgent to assure the sustainability of investment in stadiums. The paper also argues that the "feel-good" and public image effects of sports events should no longer be neglected in cost-benefit studies of large sporting events, even though these effects have the character of experience goods, and their value are thus likely to be underestimated ex ante. ( JEL L83, R53, R58)     

Conditioning manager alphas on economic information: another look at the persistence of performance

This article presents evidence on persistence in the relativeinvestment performance of large, institutional equity managers.Similar to existing evidence for mutual funds, we find persistentperformance concentrated in the managers with poor prior-periodperformance measures. A conditional approach, using time-varyingmeasures of risk and abnormal performance, is better able todetect this persistence and to predict the future performanceof the funds than are traditional methods.     

US domestic airline alliances: does the national welfare impact turn on strategic international gains?

The six largest U.S. airlines announced in the beginning of 1998 the formation of three domestic alliances, but the size and scope of these alliances spurred significant public interest concerns. GAO analysis suggests a rough equivalence between the domestic costs and benefits of alliances, yet the international competitive effects have not been considered. I argue that the national welfare merits of domestic airline alliances turn on positive international competitive effects. Empirical tests - run on comprehensive panel data covering the international airline markets among 21 nations over the 1983–1992 period - support domestic market concentration resulting in strategic international gains; hence, domestic airline alliances likely improve national welfare.     

A Sticky Information Phillips Curve for South Africa

Mankiw and Reis propose the Sticky Information Phillips Curve (SIPC) as an alternative to the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve to address empirical shortcomings in the latter. A SIPC for South Africa is estimated, and we find estimates of information updating probability between 0.69 and 0.81, somewhat higher than suggested by methods using micro‐evidence. Because the estimation requires data on expectations of current period inflation and output gap conditional on sequences of earlier period information sets, we provide a detailed analysis of the impact on our estimates of alternative proxies available in South Africa.     

A macro-framework for successful development banks

The large-scale failures of development banks in the 1970s and 1980s meant that they all but disappeared from the development agenda. However, there are still a large number of development banks worldwide that operate with various degrees of success. Some governments are also looking to re-establish such banks to address the shortage of finance for higher-risk market segments. To avoid a repeat of the earlier failures, government policy needs to be informed by an objective framework for the success of these banks. This article, based on economic theory and informed by case studies, outlines such a framework. It addresses the following six dimensions of these banks: enabling environment, mandate, regulation and supervision, governance and management, financial sustainability and performance assessment. Development banking remains a risky initiative but, managed appropriately, and using this framework, it can help achieve development objectives.