The relative importance of demand and supply shocks some international evidence

In this paper the contribution of demand and supply shocks of the fluctuation of output and employment is analyzed using quarterly data for four countries (USA, UK, FRG and Switzerland) covering the period 1966 to 1988 in a long run restricted VAR framework for employment, output, the interest rate and inflation. For the USA output and employment fluctuations seem to be dominated by supply shocks in theshort and long run, whereas interest and price level variations are dominated by demand shocks. The result obtained with German and Swiss data are, however, different with two respects: The contribution of demand shocks to output and employment fluctuations are substantial up to a time horizon of eight quarters and price level variations, are at least in the short run, dominated by supply disturbances. Finally, the analysis of the UK data shows the US pattern of results for employment and the price level, but demand shocks are important for output up to four quarters and interest rate movements are dominated by supply shocks.     

Central Bank Independence and Sacrifice Ratios: Some Further Considerations

The existing literature reports a positive relationship between sacrifice ratios and central bank independence. This paper discusses two critical points related to the usual procedures employed by this literature. One concerns the issue of non-stationarity of the inflation rate, the other the problem of correlation between the error terms for different disinflation episodes in the same country. The way in which the sacrifice ratio-central bank independence relationship is tested is reconsidered taking into account these points. Our results shed considerable doubts on the nature and robustness of such a relationship and on the usual interpretation given to it in the literature.     

How the German crisis of 1931 swept across Europe: a comparative view from Stockholm†

According to conventional wisdom, the fall of the Swedish currency in September 1931 was caused by the sterling crisis. This article shows that the road towards devaluation began earlier and that financial linkages with Germany proved to be more important than Sweden's economic and monetary relations with Great Britain. It all started in late 1929 when the Swedish financier Ivar Kreuger gave a loan to the German government in exchange for the match monopoly, thus tying his business ventures to Germany's solvency. In addition, a part of this loan was financed by large US dollar credits from the two largest Swedish banks that, in turn, accumulated a sizeable foreign short‐term deficit. When in June 1931 the German fiscal crisis began to escalate, international investors ceased to consider Sweden a safe haven because they knew about the linkages between the German government, Kreuger, and the Swedish banking system. This downgrading, in combination with the foreign short‐term deficit of the banking sector, proved lethal for the reserve position of the Swedish central bank, once the international liquidity crisis in mid‐July 1931 erupted. The sterling crisis only put the final nail in the coffin.     

Effects of employment protection on worker and job flows: Evidence from the 1990 Italian reform

This paper uses the Italian Social Security employer-employee panel to study the effects of the Italian reform of 1990 on worker and job flows. We exploit the fact that this reform increased unjust dismissal costs for businesses below 15 employees, while leaving dismissal costs unchanged for bigger businesses, to set up a natural experiment research design. We find that the increase in dismissal costs decreased accessions and separations for workers in small relative to large firms, especially in sectors with higher employment volatility, with a negligible impact on net employment. We also find some evidence suggesting that the reform reduced firms' entry rates and employment adjustments, but had no effect on exit rates.     

Growth,exports and cointegration: An empirical investigation

Zusammenfassung Wachstum, Exporte und Ko-Integration. Eine empirische Untersuchung. — In diesem Aufsatz wird Johansens multivariate Ko-Integrationsanalyse auf viertelj?hrliche Daten für das BIP, den Konsum, die Investitionen und die Exporte von sechs L?ndern angewandt. Es zeigt sich, da\ in vier F?llen der Export keine ko-integrativen Beziehungen zu den anderen drei Variablen eingeht. Demgem?\ gibt es keine starke empirische Evidenz für die Hypothese vom exportinduzierten Wachstum.

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Resumen Crecimiento, exportaciones y cointegración: una investigatión empirica. — La aplicación del análisis de cointegración multivariado de Johansen al PBI trimestral, al consumo, a la inversión y a las exportaciones de seis paises industrializados indica que en cuatro casos las exportaciones no forman parte de las relaciones de cointegración entre las tres otras variables. Por ello, no se obtiene evidencia empírica importante en favor de la hipótesis del crecimiento dirigido por las exportaciones.

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Résumé Accroissement, exportation et co-intégration: une analyse empirique. — L’application de l’analyse de co-intégration multivariate de Johansen aux données trimestrielles du produit national brut, de la consommation, de l’investissement et de l’exportation de six pays industrialisés indique qu’en quatre cas l’exportation n’influence pas les relations de co-intégration entre les trois autres variables. Par conséquence, l’évidence empirique ne supporte pas fortement l’hypothèse que la croissance économique soit stimulée par l’exportation.

     

The Impact of Firing Costs on Turnover and Unemployment: Evidence from the Colombian Labour Market Reform

Reductions in firing costs are often advocated as a way of increasing the dynamism of labour markets in both developed and less developed countries. Evidence from Europe and the U.S. on the impact of firing costs has, however, been mixed. Moreover, legislative changes both in Europe and the U.S. have been limited. This paper, instead, examines the impact of the Colombian Labour Market Reform of 1990, which substantially reduced dismissal costs. I estimate the incidence of a reduction in firing costs on worker turnover by exploiting the temporal change in the Colombian labour legislation as well as the variability in coverage between formal and informal sector workers. Using a grouping estimator to control for common aggregate shocks and selection, I find that the exit hazard rates into and out of unemployment increased after the reform by over 1\% for formal workers (covered by the legislation) relative to informal workers (uncovered). The increase of the hazards implies a net decrease in unemployment of a third of a percentage point, which accounts for about one quarter of the fall in unemployment during the period of study.     

Intertemporal substitution and random changes in preferences: Time series evidence for four countries

This study attempts to estimate a model of intertemporal substitution taking into account serially correlated changes in preferences with quarterly aggregate time series data for the USA, Great Britain, West Germany and Switzerland. Thereby, necessary optimality conditions representing the trade-offs between present and future consumption, present and future leisure, as well as present consumption and leisure are estimated using the forward-filtered estimator of Hayashi and Sims. The estimation results obtained for the dynamic optimality conditions reject the model formulated. The analysis of the static optimality conditions gave more satisfactory results with respect to intertemporal substitution elasticity in consumption.     

Struktur der arbeitsnachfrage im technologischen Wandel — Eine empirische analyse für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Summary The Structure of Labour Demand and Technical Change: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany. - The estimation of translog models using German industry data for the period 1960–1981 indicates that technical progress is capital-using and at the same time saves blue-collar labour. For some industries, evidence for white-collar labour saving technical progress is found whilst for others white-collar labour using technical change is indicated. The analysis of more disaggregated labour data shows that for white-collar and blue-collar workers alike, technical change favours the higher-skilled performance groups. Furthermore, it is indicated that blue-collar labour is a substitute for white-collar labour and capital, whereas only a weak substitutive and sometimes even complementary relationship exists between white-collar labour and capital.

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Résumé La structure de la demande de main d’oeuvre et changement technique: une investigation empirique de la RFA. - L’estimation des modèles translog avec des données de l’industrie allemande pour la période 1960–1981 indique que le progrès technique use des capitaux et simultanément économise des ouvriers. Pour quelques industries, il y a l’évidence que le progrès technique est accompagné par une économie d’employées de bureau, pour d’autres qu’il est accompagné par une augmentation de la nombre des employées. L’analyse des données de la main d’∄uvre qui sont plus désagrégées démontre que pour les ouvriers aussi bien que les employées le changement technique favorise les groupes les plus qualifiés. De plus, il est indiqué que les ouvriers sont un substitut pour les employées et le capital pendant qu’une faible relation substitutive et parfois même complémentaire existe entre les employées de bureau et le capital.

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Resumen La estructura de la demanda de trabajo y el cambio tecnológico: una investigación empírica para la República Federal de Alemania. - La estimación de modelos ?translog? utilizando datos de la industria alemana para el período 1960–1981 indica que el cambio tecnológico insume capital y a la vez ahorra mano de obra obrera. Se encuentra evidencia en favor de un progreso técnico que en algunas industrias ahorra mientras que en otras insume mano de obra de oficina. El análisis de datos laborales más desagregados muestra que para ambas categorías de mano de obra el cambio technol?gico favorece a los grupos de mayor calificación. Además, la mano de obra obrera resulta ser sustituto de la mano de obra de oficina y del capital, mientras que la relatión entre la mano de obra de oficina y el capital resulta sólo moderadamente sustitutiva y en algunos casos hasta complementaria.

     

Trade and market selection: Evidence from manufacturing plants in Colombia

We examine the link between trade liberalization and aggregate productivity, with a focus on improved market selection resulting from a reduction in trade barriers and in the dispersion of these barriers across producers. Our analysis exploits tariff changes across sectors after the Colombian trade reform. An additional advantage of our analysis is that our TFP measure does not include demand and price effects. We find that reduced trade protection makes plant survival depend more closely on productivity. Using a dynamic simulation, we find that enhanced selection increases aggregate productivity substantially. Trade liberalization also increases productivity of incumbent plants and improves the allocation of activity. We find larger effects on allocative efficiency with our TFP measure than with a traditional measure including price effects.     

An empirical note on Euro market interest rates,domestic interest rates and the expectations theory of the term structure

An empirical analysis of recent monthly data for 8 currencies indicates that the performance of the expectations theory to explain the short term maturity spectrum of Euro interest rates is rather good in most cases and that it is not related to the degree of integration of Euro and domestic markets.