High-Frequency Trading and Market Performance

We study the consequences of, and potential policy responses to, high-frequency trading (HFT) via the tradeoff between liquidity and information production. Faster speeds facilitate HFT, with consequences for this tradeoff: Information production decreases because informed traders have less time to trade before HFTs react, but liquidity (measured by the bid-ask spread) improves because informational asymmetries decline. HFT also pushes outcomes inside the frontier of this tradeoff. However, outcomes can be restored to the frontier by replacing the limit order book with one of two alternative mechanisms: delaying all orders except cancellations or implementing frequent batch auctions.     

Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability

We examine whether the U.S. and German state governments pursue sustainable fiscal policies taking into account fiscal transfers. Using panel data techniques we investigate whether the debt‐to‐GDP ratio had a positive influence on the primary surplus (Bohn model). We show that including/excluding fiscal transfers changes the results. If fiscal transfers are not included in the primary surplus, the test results do not indicate that the U.S. and German state governments pursued sustainable fiscal policies. Our results also suggest that fiscal transfers were positively related to debt. These findings indicate that intergovernmental transfers have implicitly subsidized debts.     

NARRATIVE CORPORATE SOCIAL DISCLOSURES: HOW MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE DO THEY MAKE TO INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING?

This paper reports the results of a study on the usefulness of typical social disclosures from corporate annual reports for investment decision-making. Rather than seek to solely survey respondents about their stated behaviour, the present study also seeks to examine if narrative social disclosures in the annual report actually impact on the behaviour of how investors allocate their investment funds. The experiment provides a basis for assessing the magnitude of any decision impacts. The results indicate that from a sample of sophisticated users (accountants and investment analysts) social disclosures from annual reports do not elicit any more than a 15% switch in investment funds. Furthermore, the switch in funds is not always in favour of the company providing the information. Consistent with these behavioural reactions the survey evidence also reveals moderate attitudes to the decision usefulness of narrative social disclosures for investment decision making.     

On the Relationship between Domestic Saving and the Current Account: Evidence and Theory for Developing Countries

We examine the relationship between domestic saving and the current account in developing countries. Our three main findings are that: (i) domestic saving has a small effect on the current account; (ii) domestic saving has a significant positive effect on the trade balance—this effect is much larger than the effect that domestic saving has on the current account; and (iii) domestic saving has a significant negative effect on net-current transfers. We use countries in the SSA region during the period 1980-2009 as a laboratory for an instrumental variables (IV) approach. The IV approach enables to obtain estimates of causal effects. Underlying the IV approach is the significant positive first-stage response of domestic saving to plausibly exogenous annual rainfall: an unanticipated, transitory supply-side shock. We construct a small open-economy DSGE model with debt adjustment costs and endogenous current transfers to match the empirical findings. The model enables to examine the relationship between domestic saving and the current account for different types of shocks. An important message of our paper is that, for developing countries, estimates of the relationship between domestic saving and domestic investment are not informative for answering the question how domestic saving affects a country's accumulation of net foreign assets.     

Interindustry Wage Differentials and Unobserved Ability: Siblings Evidence from Five Countries

We examine the role of unobserved ability in explaining interindustry wage differentials. By using data on brothers, we account for unmeasured abilities shared by siblings. The data came from four Nordic countries and the United States. In the Nordic countries, only a moderate proportion of the variability in industry wages can be attributed to unobserved ability, while unmeasured factors explain as much as half of the U.S. industry‐wage variation. Accounting for such differences, we show that the U.S. interindustry wage dispersion is similar with that in the Nordic countries.     

SALARY CAP REGULATION IN PROFESSIONAL TEAM SPORTS

This paper analyzes the effects of a percentage‐of‐revenue salary cap in a team sports league with win‐maximizing clubs and flexible talent supply. It shows that a percentage‐of‐revenue cap produces a more balanced league and decreases aggregate salary payments. Taking into account the idiosyncrasies of European football, our paper further highlights the potential conflicts between the league and society. From the perspective of a league governing body, a percentage‐of‐revenue cap always enhances financial stability of win‐maximizing clubs. A social planner, however, will not permit the introduction of such a cap if fans and players unduly suffer. This paper shows under which conditions the social planner accepts (rejects) a salary cap proposed by the league regulator. (JEL D02, D60, L83)     

贷款难求

尽管经济学家和政治家们反复告诉我们，中小企业在经济发展中发挥着十分重要的作用，然而，在最近20年里，相当多的中小企业却—直面临着管理现金流和满足最苛刻贷款条件的严峻挑战。     

On the Credibility of the Euro/Swiss Franc Floor: A Financial Market Perspective

We estimate the risk‐neutral break probabilities of a realignment of the EUR/CHF 1.20 floor, maintained by the SNB from September 6, 2011, to January 15, 2015, using put options and an option pricing model, which assumes a lower barrier for the exchange rate. We estimate probabilities considerably different from zero, even when the exchange rate traded far above the floor. We observe a drastic increase in the break probabilities up to approximately 50% shortly before the floor was abandoned. From an option market perspective, the credibility of the SNB in maintaining the floor was, thus, substantially lower than publicly claimed.     

The strange birth of liberal Denmark: Danish trade protection and the growth of the dairy industry since the mid‐nineteenth century1

The usual story of the ‘first era of globalization’ at the end of the nineteenth century sees Denmark as something of an outlier: a country which, like the UK, resisted the globalization backlash in the wake of the inflow of cheap grain from the New World, but where agriculture, rather than going into decline, in fact flourished. Key to the success of Danish agriculture was an early diversification towards dairy production. This article challenges this simple story which sees Denmark as something of a liberal paragon. Denmark's success owed much to a prudent use of trade policy which favoured dairy production. Moreover, this favouritism continued even after a more general movement to free trade in the 1860s. Using micro‐level data from individual dairies, we quantify the implied subsidy to dairy production from the tariffs, and demonstrate that in many cases this ensured the profitability of individual dairies.