The Usefulness of Book-to-Market and ROE Expectations for Explaining UK Stock Returns

Abstract:  The fundamental valuation perspective on stock returns suggests that book-to-market will be positively related to returns if market value of equity equals future expected cash flows discounted at the expected return and book value proxies for future cash flows. Building on this perspective, we develop a log linear model which includes expectations of future BM and ROE in addition to current BM as explanatory variables for future stock returns. We show that these three variables explain a significant part of UK cross-sectional stock returns and that they remain highly statistically significant after including additional risk proxy variables. This supports relevance of fundamental valuation based firm characteristics for explaining stock returns and indicates their potential usefulness for predicting future stock returns.     

Possible Applications of Survival Analysis in Franchising Research

Time is an important variable for retailers. The concepts of survival and duration, linked to this time variable, can be very interesting in franchising research. For instance, what are the determinants of the survival of a network or a store? Which elements decrease the period before franchising or internationalising a network? There is a well adapted but little-exploited methodology in this research area: survival analysis. Consequently, this methodological paper presents in detail survival analysis methodology before giving relevant examples of applications in the franchising field. Managerial implications of these kinds of research are given before the conclusion.     

Economic burden of thromboembolic and hemorrhagic complications in non-valvular atrial fibrillation in Algeria (the ELRAGFA study)

Abstract

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, with substantial public health and economic impact on healthcare systems due to the prevention and management of thromboembolic and hemorrhagic complications. In Algeria, stroke is a leading cause of death, representing 15.6% of all deaths in 2012. Current data on the epidemiology and costs associated with non-valvular AF (NVAF) in Algeria are not available.

Methods: A three-step approach was undertaken to estimate the economic burden of NVAF in Algeria. First, a literature review identified the epidemiological burden of the disease. Second, expert clinicians practicing in Algerian hospitals were surveyed on consumed resources and unit costs of treatment and management of complications and prevention. Finally, these data were combined with event probabilities in an economic model to estimate the annual cost of NVAF prevention and complications for the Algerian healthcare system.

Results: Based on literature and demographics data, it was estimated that there are currently 187,686 subjects with NVAF in Algeria. Seventy per cent of this population was treated for prevention, half of which were controlled. Cost of prevention was estimated at 203 million DZD (€1.5 million) for drugs and 349 million DZD (€2.6 million) for examinations. Mean hospitalization costs for complications ranged between 123,500 and 435,500 DZD (€910–3,209), according to the type and severity of complications. Hospitalization costs for thromboembolic and hemorrhagic complications were estimated at 8,313 million DZD (€62 million), half of which was for untreated patients. Finally, the economic burden of NVAF was estimated at 8,865 million DZD (>€65 million) annually.

Conclusion: The economic burden of NVAF is important in Algeria, largely driven by untreated and INR-uncontrolled patients. There is a lack of information on the Algerian healthcare system that could increase uncertainty around this assessment, but it clearly establishes the importance of NVAF as a public health concern.     

Development and validation of a multidimensional scale measuring free time boredom

A test was developed to assess free time boredom (the FTB scale). FTB components suggested by the literature were utilized to extract indicators, then developed into items. Three preliminary trials were used on separate samples of 109, 152 and 163 persons, to add, delete and modify items. Factor analysis in a final field test (347 subjects) produced four factors, accounting for 45% of the variance. Based upon the resulting factor structure, four subscales were developed and labelled as ‘lack of meaningful involvement’, ‘lack of mental involvement’, ‘slowness of time’ and ‘lack of physical involvement’. Internal consistency coefficients for the subscales ranged from 0.91 to 0.78 while inter-subscale correlations ranged from r = 0.62 to 0.23. The moderate relationships of the FTB scale with the Boredom Proneness Scale and two items on boredom demonstrated acceptable concurrent validity. The FTB scale suggests a concise, valid and reliable test of individuals’ boredom in their free hours, which may be applied to practical settings and research studies. Discussion and limitations are provided.     

Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption,environmental degradation and economic growth in Tunisia

The aim of this document is to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in Tunisia over the period 1990–2015. Unit root tests and co-integration test was used in order to detect the order of stationary and to test the existence long run links between the used variables. We apply the Granger causality test and VECM model to discover the short and long run links between the variables. Results have shown a bidirectional causal relationship between energy use and CO₂ emissions. Economic growth affects CO₂ emission in the short and long run. While there is a unidirectional links running from energy use to economic growth at short run. The paper shares best practices from Tunisia in terms of efficient use of renewable energy policy enablers, which may be contextualized in other emerging economies in order to keep sustainability and to achieve the green economy.     

DO CRISES INDUCE REFORM? A CRITICAL REVIEW OF CONCEPTION,METHODOLOGY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE ‘CRISIS HYPOTHESIS’

The notion that economic crises induce the adoption of reform ranks among the most widely accepted concepts in the political economics literature. However, the underlying mechanism of the so‐called ‘crisis hypothesis’ has yet to be fully understood. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the relevant empirical evidence to date, and scrutinizes the operationalization of the hypothesis’ key concepts: crisis, reform and the political mediation of reform during crises. We argue that the social perception of both crises and the subsequent cost of reform requires consideration of how these concepts are operationalized. As a product of the broader economic and institutional environment, social perceptions largely determine the manner in which the political mediation of reform during crises works. Present‐day methodological approaches fail to adequately reflect social perceptions and consequently compromise the determination of what constitutes both crisis and the cost of reform in the context of the crisis hypothesis. Most notably, the identification of crises by fixed thresholds constructed around macroeconomic variables impedes the interpretation of the hypothesis’ underlying mechanism. A fuller treatment of social perception within the operationalization of the hypothesis’ key concepts can enhance our understanding of how economic crises influence political dynamics in bringing about reform.     

The relationship between tourism receipts,real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Tunisia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of tourism in the Tunisian economic growth. We used a trivariate model of real gross domestic product (GDP), real international tourism receipts and real effective exchange rate to discuss the relationship between tourism and economic growth. By using annual data for Tunisia for the period of 1970–2007, our results reveal that there is a cointegrating relationship between tourism and economic growth. In addition, our results for the Granger causality test indicate that tourism has a positive impact on GDP growth unidirectionally. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intermittent exporting: unusual business or business as usual?

Review of World Economics - We construct an empirically supported definition of incidental and perennial exporting and investigate to what extent incidental exporting is a steady-state of firms, to...