中国的设备投资与经济开放

从传统的Solow增长模型的视角看,资本积累与政府政策对于经济的长期增长都是无效的.但是从内生增长理论的视角看,资本积累(特别是设备投资)和经济开放程度都是长期经济增长最重要的决定因素.长期以来,中国保持高速持续发展的策略主要集中于在市场化进程和贸易开放进程中鼓励投资,以及最近实行的鼓励出口,这一策略允许从更为发达的国家进口研发密集型的机器设备.在这个背景下,本文的目的在于探讨设备投资与出口是否如内生增长理论模型所言对经济增长具有长期的效应,或者相反,如传统的增长模型所言对中国的经济增长没有解释力.除此之外,我们还检验了设备投资、出口和产出在长期和短期的本质联系.在方法上,我们采用了协整VAR模型.我们的发现为设备投资和出口都是导致中国过去数十年中高速发展的重要因素这一观点提供了证据.     

A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward foreign investment: the Spanish case

Historically, outward foreign direct investment has been contemplated as an alternative way of firms' internationalization. In this line, a relational substitution between exports and foreign direct investment would be expected. However, this seems to contrast with recent developments in the ‘new trade theory’ which show that the volume of trade and the emergence of multinational firms may be positively related one to the other. This paper investigates if some empirical evidence exists either supporting a substitution or a complementary relationship between both forms of internationalization. With this aim, an aggregate time series approach was adopted using quarterly aggregate data (seasonal adjusted) from the Spanish economy covering the period 1970.I–1992.III. A vector autoregressive model was employed for both multivariate cointegration analysis and Granger temporal causality testing. The strength and direction of causal relationships are shown through the dynamic variance decomposition and the impulse response technique. Once controlling for relative market size and prices, the results provide evidence of a positive long-term Granger causality going from foreign direct investment to exports, although not in the opposite direction.     

EU Enlargement and Inward FDI

The authors attempt to highlight the effects of the recent surge of FDI in the enlargement states on domestic investment and growth. A similar analysis is carried out for the EU-15 in order to ascertain whether this type of capital inflow has a differential impact in these two regions of the European Union. Empirical analysis, based on dynamic panel data models, suggests the existence of a positive contribution of FDI to greater domestic investment and economic growth in the new member states. The evidence obtained for the EU-15 old member countries confirms the FDI-growth nexus but does not suggest a positive impact of FDI on domestic investment, which would be consistent with these capital inflows being of a different nature for these more advanced economies.     

Asymmetric Demand Information and Foreign Direct Investment*

We examine the FDI versus exports decision of firms competing in an oligopolistic (quantity‐setting) market under demand uncertainty and asymmetric information. Compared to a firm that chooses to export, a firm that chooses to set up a plant in the host market has superior information about local market demand. In addition to the well‐known tension between the fixed set‐up costs of investment, the additional variable costs of exports and oligopoly sizes, the incentive to invest abroad is explained by the strategic learning effect. FDI may be observed even if trade costs are zero. The analysis is robust to price competition and to the possibility that a foreign firm can engage in both FDI and exports.     

The driving forces behind China’s growth1

The main objective of this article is to disentangle the determinants of the Chinese economic growth that occurred from 1965 to 2000. We have explored, first, the time series properties of the growth rates of gross domestic product and labour productivity with an extended battery of unit‐root tests. Then, in a multivariate setting, we use the VAR model methodology to provide evidence that physical and human capital accumulation, R&D expenditure, openness and competitiveness are the main drivers of output, labour productivity and total factor productivity growth in the long run. Additionally, we also show that although China has not yet converged to its long‐run equilibrium, it is in the process of catching up. These results are more consistent with some versions of the endogenous growth models than with Solow‐type models of growth, since they support active strategies of economic policy to stimulate economic growth and catching up with more advanced economies.     

Entry in Foreign Markets under Asymmetric Information and Demand Uncertainty

This paper examines the mode of entry of a multinational firm that has less information about the host market stochastic demand than the local firm. The foreign firm can enter the market either through direct investment or exports. Each entry mode entails different costs and has different informational implications. Entry through foreign direct investment (FDI) is favored by greater variability in demand. Interestingly enough, strategic behavior by the incumbent firm, which deviates from its first period monopoly output, might be aimed at increasing the probability of foreign entry through FDI despite having to compete against an equally informed and efficient entrant; this never happens in a symmetric information environment. Such host firm behavior is aimed at reducing the strategic uncertainty derived from the foreign firm's beliefs. Compared with the symmetric information setting, entry via direct investment may occur in more cases.     

Measuring Pricing to Market in the Eurozone: The Case of the Automobile Industry

In this paper we measure the pricing to market for the main export products in the Eurozone automobile industry. Results reveal that significant markup adjustments exist following exchange rate variations. In general, these adjustments allow a strong stabilization of prices in buyer's currency terms. Nevertheless, the degree of pricing to market is quite heterogeneous and differs highly across both product categories and destination markets.