Exchange rate and interest rate polarization

Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Polarization. - The relationship between the polarization phenomenon in foreign exhange markets and a similar regu-larity in interest rate differentials is considered. In the case of perfect substitutability and of perfect foresight, both polarizations would be perfectly complementary. Risk premia and forecast errors, however, might induce some degree of substitutability between the two concepts. Throughout almost the entire EMS experience, in France and Italy both phenomena appear to be equivalent. At the end of the 80s, however, interest rate polarization has surged at the expense of exchange rate polarization. In fact, a bias in estimates was found to explain this recent behaviour.     

Sophisticated voting with information for two voting functions

The necessary and sufficient conditions for a single rational voter to reveal a sophisticated preference ordering under the Borda and Kemeny voting functions are presented. Algorithms for determining the dominant strategic ballot are given for a key voter having perfect information regarding the true preference orderings of the other voters. An example illustrating the stated concepts is provided.     

A Note on Asymmetry in Commodity Futures Markets

This study tests for asymmetry in futures price changes using commodities from a variety of groups such as agricultural, metals, and financials. Tests are used to determine whether or not prices move up in the same fashion as they move down, over varying data frequencies. The results indicate that every commodity analyzed shows at least some degree of asymmetry.
Nous avons scruté les signes éventuels d'asymétrie dans l'évolution des prix à terme de certaines catégories de produits agricoles, industriels (pétrole et métaux) et boursiers. Des tests ont été utilisés pour déterminer si les prix moment de la même façon qu'ils descendent pour diverses fréquences d'établissement des prix (quotidien, hebdomadaire, mensuel). Il ressort de ces analyses que chaque type de produit comportait au mains un certain degré d'asymétrie.     

The Choice Among Interbank Settlement Systems: The European Experience

This paper addresses the choice of banks between alternative channels for interbank payments. The conventional view assumes a tradeoff between the safety of real-time gross settlement (RTGS) and the liquidity savings of multilateral netting. Moreover, correspondent banking is believed to be inefficient, both in terms of liquidity and of administrative costs. In the last decade, however, the impulse of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems, technological changes and the management of RTGS systems by central banks have reduced the difference between the various systems. This is especially true for risk, whereas liquidity cost crucially depends on the refinancing policy adopted by the central bank and the co-ordination among the participants. On the basis of the recent evolution of payment systems in Europe, we verify the importance of liquidity, as well as other variables like transaction costs, for the choice of banks among different settlement systems. Cost factors imply that the nature of payments flows (value, commercial versus financial) and some structural features of the banking systems (dimension of the intermediaries, concentration of the banking sector) become important. The analysis is carried out both through a theoretical model and a cross-country comparison based on three data sources: ECB (European Central Bank, EBA (Euro Banking Association) and SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication).     

Foreign exchange market liberalization and the international diversification of borrowing by Italian firms

In this article we try to assess the relative importance of real and financial determinants in firm's foreign currency borrowing by extending a model earlier developed by Kawai. We use this framework to examine the behavior of Italian firms during the 1980s. The financial components of firm's decisions are studied by means of a repeated mean-variance portfolio model based on ex ante expectation. We show that (a) the invoice currencies seem to be a good indicator of firm's real exchange risk; and (b) even at times of capital controls, corporate debt policy was affected by financial variables. The latter will become increasingly important as European financial integration moves on.