The link between inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from G7 countries

In this paper we adopt the Markov-switching heteroscedasticity model to analyse the inflation series for G7 countries and examine the interaction between inflation rate and its uncertainty over both the short- and long-run. It is found that the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty depends on whether the shock is permanent or transitory. The relationship also differs from country to country. High uncertainty about long-run inflation is associated with a significant positive shift in inflation for Canada, Germany, and Japan. High uncertainty about short-run inflation is associated with a significant positive shift in inflation for Germany and USA, and a significant negative shift in inflation for Canada. The modelling approach employed in this paper is empirically supported by various diagnostics including the Vuong test. We also derive the two components of the variance of inflation forecast for a particular forecast horizon. It is found that the inflation uncertainty increases at all horizons in the middle of 1970s and return to the low level in the middle of 1980s.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: October 2003We would like to thank three anonymous referees for many helpful comments and suggestions.     

Experience Matters? The Impact of Prior CEO Experience on Firm Performance

We sample CEOs of the 2005 S&P 500 corporations to look at the relationship between experience in the CEO position of a different firm and the post‐succession financial performance of the firm that they currently lead. We find that experience in the CEO position is negatively related to firm performance. CEOs who directly move to their current CEO position from the previous one and those with job‐specific experience in the same or related industry or at the helm of a previous company similar in size to the current one are associated with significantly lower post‐succession performance than those without prior CEO experience. The results contribute to the literatures on CEO succession, the performance effect of job‐specific experience, and the transferability of human capital. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The transmission mechanism of business cycles among Germany,Japan, the UK and the USA

The study analyses the interdependent relationships of business cycles among four major countries using LA-VAR methods. The results are compared with results obtained using a standard VAR model. For the total sample (1962–1995), it is found that the economies of individual countries move independently and that inter-dependence is weak. However, causality from the USA to Japan, and from Japan to Germany can be observed. It is also found that the ripple effect differs in the first (1962–1973) and second (1973–1995) sample periods. A change in the international ripple effect on the business cycle may have occurred at the time of the first oil crisis. These results are almost robust to the empirical techniques employed in the analysis.     

External labor market strategy and career success: CEO careers in Europe and the United States

In this paper, we examine the career histories of the chief executive officers (CEOs) affiliated with the 500 largest organizations in Europe and the 500 largest in the United States. Our purpose is to determine whether frequent career moves across employers, a phenomenon we label an “external labor market strategy,” brings greater career rewards than moves inside the same organization. The results reveal that an external labor market strategy is negatively related to career success. On both continents, CEOs who have spent a smaller fraction of their career in their current organization or have changed employers more often have taken a longer time from the start of their career to be promoted to the most influential corporate positions. The labor market institutions in the 22 countries sampled do not influence the relationship between an external labor market strategy and career success, while the specific geographic region in which the employers are located has a limited impact on this relationship. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance among electricity prices,crude oil prices,and yen–US dollar exchange rates in Japan

In this study, we test the Granger-causality-in-mean and Granger-causality-in-variance among electricity prices, crude oil prices, and yen-to-US-dollar exchange rates in Japan using a cross-correlation function approach. We find Granger-causality-in-mean from neither the exchange market nor the oil market to the power market; the same was true of Granger-causality-in-variance, although both the exchange rates and oil prices greatly influence power generation costs in Japan. We suspect the efficiency of this market is at play.     

The effects of oil price shocks on expenditure category CPI

In this study, we apply a two-block structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model proposed by Kilian and Park (2009) in order to investigate the dynamic effects of changes in oil price on the expenditure category consumer price index (CPI) in the United States and Japan. Our results confirm that each expenditure category price index responded very differently to the same structural shock, and that whether changes in oil price function as a positive stimulus or a negative shock for the individual expenditure category prices also depends on the kind of underlying shock that drives the changes in oil price. Finally, our results also reveal that the manner in which changes in oil price affect each expenditure category price differs between the United States and Japan and these detailed-level differences may lead to aggregate-level differences in the price response of both countries to changes in oil price.     

Empirical research on monetary policy,asset prices and inflation: an analysis based on provincial panel data in China

In this article, we investigate the dynamic correlations among monetary policy, asset prices and inflation and assess the regional effects of monetary policy in China for the period October 2007 to July 2013. We focus on the interdependencies among monetary policy and asset price fluctuations by using the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate as the preferred variable for analysing monetary policy movement. In particular, we apply a vector autoregressive model in a panel setting, which allows researchers to examine variations over time or across individual regions. The empirical results presented herein indicate that monetary policy reacts actively to asset prices, although it is still shown to be ineffective. In addition, we find that asset prices display some regional differences in their response to an unexpected monetary policy shock.     

Causality-in-variance and causality-in-mean between the Greek sovereign bond yields and Southern European banking sector equity returns

This paper adopts the robust cross-correlation function methodology developed by Hong (J Econom 103:183–224, 2001) in order to test for volatility and mean spillovers between Greek long-term government bond yields and the banking sector stock returns of four Southern European countries, namely Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain. Its primary focus is on investigating the potential impacts of the recent European sovereign debt crisis. While most previous studies have focused on within-country causalities, we rather assess cross-country transmission effects. The presented results provide evidence of bidirectional volatility spillovers between Greek long-term interest rates and the banking sector equities of Portugal, Italy, and Spain that emerged during the European sovereign debt crisis. We also find significant unidirectional causality-in-mean from bank stock returns in Greece to Greek long-term bond yields during the crisis period as well as significant causality at the mean level from the bank equity returns in Portugal, Italy, and Spain to Greek bond yields.     

Executive career advancement in career moves across employers: the role of organization-level predictors

This paper examines the career moves of executives between different organizations and looks at the characteristics of executives employing organizations as a predictor of the outcome of the moves. The paper uses a retained executive search firm's proprietary data set that contains information on the career paths of executives in the financial services industry. The results show that the perceived operational excellence of executives employing organization has a significant signalling power for other employers and strongly impacts the success of executives' moves across different organizations. The data also reveal that executives may use their employment spell at large-sized organizations that are perceived as excellent as a conscious career-building mechanism and accept smaller promotions to join such organizations.