Self‐Fulfilling Early‐Contracting Rush*

In markets for entry‐level professionals, the insurance motive drives some participants to sign early contracts. The rush to early contracting can be self‐fulfilling, as both its effect on expectations about demand–supply balance in the subsequent spot market and the effect on it from changes in the demand–supply balance can be nonmonotone. Matching markets with more risk‐averse participants, a greater uncertainty regarding relative supply of positions, or a more polarized distribution of applicant qualities are more vulnerable to self‐fulfilling early‐contracting rushes. Employers can have a collective interest in preventing early offers to a few promising applicants from starting the rushes.     

Nonlinearity between Trade Openness and Economic Development

This paper utilizes the instrumental variable threshold regressions approach to reassess the trade–development link. It finds evidence that trade openness contributes to uneven development. Greater trade openness tends to have beneficial effects on real development of high‐income countries. For low‐income ones, however, trade openness appears to influence real income in a significant and negative way. The data also reveal that greater trade openness has a positive effect on capital accumulation, productivity growth, and financial development in high‐income countries, but a negative impact in low‐income ones.     

Finite state Markov-chain approximations to highly persistent processes

The Rouwenhorst method of approximating stationary AR(1) processes has been overlooked by much of the literature despite having many desirable properties unmatched by other methods. In particular, we prove that it can match the conditional and unconditional mean and variance, and the first-order autocorrelation of any stationary AR(1) process. These properties make the Rouwenhorst method more reliable than others in approximating highly persistent processes and generating accurate model solutions. To illustrate this, we compare the performances of the Rouwenhorst method and four others in solving the stochastic growth model and an income fluctuation problem. We find that (i) the choice of approximation method can have a large impact on the computed model solutions, and (ii) the Rouwenhorst method is more robust than others with respect to variation in the persistence of the process, the number of points used in the discrete approximation and the procedure used to generate model statistics.     

组织变革认知、转业辅导、生涯发展与人力运用关系之研究——以台糖公司为例

为适应多元环境的变化，公营事业转民营已成为一种市场趋势，而变革亦成为公营企业面对民营化情势的一种手段。当组织进行变革时，除应顾及组织业务发展外，亦应提供转业辅导，协助员工重新规划生涯发展方向，以期能有效运用或开发现有人力素质。本研究以台糖公司参加第二专长转业进修班的员工为研究对象，探讨组织变革认知、转业辅导、员工生涯发展与人力运用之间的关系。共回收有效问卷93份，研究结果发现：1．组织变革认知之“改隶成效”对转业辅导之“新知能学习”有显著影响；组织变革认知之“裁撤标准建立”对转业辅导之“训练课程设计”有显著影响。2．转业辅导之“新知能学习”对员工生涯发展之“生涯路径规划”和“生涯信息提供”有显著影响。3．转业辅导之“新知能学习”对人力运用之“人力重置与报偿”有显著影响；转业辅导之“参训动机”对人力运用之“修正绩效评估方案”有显著影响。4．组织变革认知之“裁撤标准建立”对员工生涯发展之“生涯路径规划”与“生涯信息提供”有显著影响。5．组织变革认知之“改隶成效”对人力运用之“人力重置与报偿”有显著影响；组织变革认知之“裁撤标准建立”对人力运用之“修正绩效评估方案”有显著影响。     

The Ddeterminants of Individual Wages in Australia: Competitive and Non-Competitive Influences

This work provides a test of competitive theories of wage determination by examining the wages of identical workers across industry classifications. The finding that a set of significant industry wage differentials exists would seem to contradict a purely competitive theory of wage determination. However, the apparent presence of unmeasured human capital that is correlated with industry status does provide one potential competitive explanation for the industry wage effects. Moreover, non-competitive explanations for the differences in industry wages, such as efficiency wage theory or institutional factors, appear to be inconsistent with the nature of the wage differentials.     

Superneutrality, indeterminacy and endogenous growth

In this paper, we explore the possibility of having money as a source of indeterminacy in endogenous growth models. We adopt the simple Ak model of endogenous growth to be the main analytical vehicle whose balanced growth paths do not display local indeterminacy. Money is introduced via either a general cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint or a pecuniary transactions costs (PTC) technology. It is shown that local indeterminacy of the dynamics is due to the presence of an intertemporal substitution effect on capital accumulation that works against and dominates the conventional inflation effect of Tobin [1965, Money and economical growth. Econometrica 33(4), Part 2, 671]. If money is growth-rate superneutral, then the intertemporal substitution effect is absent so that local indeterminacy cannot occur. Finally, the strength of the intertemporal substitution effect depends positively on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption.     

Government size,government debt and globalization

This article empirically investigates the effect of globalization on government size and debt. Using panel heterogeneous cointegration techniques to a panel of developing and developed countries, it finds that globalization reduces government size and debt. In terms of components of globalization, government size is found to increase with trade openness but decreases with financial, social and political globalization. On the other hand, government debt increases with financial and trade openness but decreases with social and political globalization. The evidence is robust to different estimation methods and different samples. Our data also indicate unidirectional causality running from globalization measures to government size and debt.     

Dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development

This paper employs the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach of Pesaran et al. (1999) to study the dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development. The advantage of the PMG estimator over other dynamic panel econometric techniques is that it allows short-run coefficients, speeds of adjustment and error variances to vary across countries, with cross-country homogeneity restrictions only on long-run parameters. Our results spanning 88 countries over 1960–2005 show that a positive long-run relationship between trade openness and financial development coexists with a negative short-run relationship. But when splitting the data into different income or inflation groups, this finding is observed only in relatively low-income countries or high-inflation economies.     

Media as watchdogs: The role of news media in electoral competition

We develop an equilibrium model to analyze the role of the media in electoral competition. When policy payoffs are state-dependent, party policies do not converge to the median voter's ideal policy if the media report only party policies. News analysis about the state, though possibly biased, can discipline off-equilibrium deviations and make the parties adopt more centrist policies. Since voters are rational, the party favored by the media need not win with a higher probability. Instead, media bias may reduce the effectiveness of electoral competition and lead to more polarized policies.