国际信用评级体系改革与中国评级业发展展望

国际金融危机和欧洲主权债务危机的爆发,凸显出现行国际信用评级体系存在的种种弊端。该文指出,现行国际信用评级体系的根本缺陷在于高度垄断,为此应通过加强内部治理和外部监管推动现有评级行业的改革,并推动国际信用评级行业新秩序的建立。中国应从宏观政策层面出台措施,扶持和推动本国自主信用评级体系的做大做强,并参与到国际信用评级体系的重建中。     

国际债券二级市场监管框架比较研究

在债券二级市场中,政府监管和行业自律监管缺一不可,却又扮演着不同的角色。文章从政府监管和行业自律监管两个角度,对美、英、日、印等国家债券二级市场的监管框架进行了总结分析,为国内债券市场的监管提供了借鉴。     

An Option-Based Operational Risk Management Model for Pandemics

Abstract

In this paper we employ the theory of real option pricing to address problems in the area of operational risk management. We develop a two-stage model to help firms determine the optimal suspension-reactivation triggers in the events of pandemics. In the first stage, we propose a regime-dependent epidemic model to simulate the spread of the virus, depending on whether the firm is active or inactive. In the second stage, we view the reactivation decision as a call option and the suspension decision as a put option, and use dynamic programming methods to obtain the optimal switching thresholds. Our method can be regarded as a quantitative implementation of the CDC’s instructions for pandemic preparation. We find that when they take the uncertainty of disease transmission into consideration, firms are more conservative about the decisions of suspension and reactivation. We also find that when firms incur switching costs, the suspension threshold increases with costs, whereas the reactivation threshold decreases with costs. By adopting disease control policies, firms can increase their values in both regimes.     

人民币信用风险缓释工具市场应用分析与展望

2010年11月,银行间市场推出人民币信用风险缓释工具,为丰富市场信用风险管理工具、完善市场信用风险分担机制开创新途径。文章基于信用衍生品市场的国际经验,从信用风险缓释工具与经济周期,信用风险缓释工具与信用债券、利率掉期套利等角度,探讨了人民币信用风险缓释工具的市场应用策略,并展望了其市场发展前景。     

关于Shibor基准性建设及其浮息债价值的探讨

自2010年底以来，Shibor利率持续走高，国内Shibor—OiS差水平显著放大，文章从多个角度分析了引起Shibor利率走高的因素，探讨了当前Shibor浮息债价值水平与配置机会，并以3个月Shibor为考察指标实证分析了Shibor定价的参考因素。针对Shibor基准利率建设中存在的不足，从增强Shibor利率可交易性、逐步建立基于Shibor基准的统一定价体系等方面提出了发展建议。     

Multivariate Models of Equity Returns for Investment Guarantees Valuation

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the valuation of investment guarantees in a multivariate (discrete-time) framework. We present how to build multivariate models in general, and we survey the most important multivariate GARCH models. A direct multivariate application of regime-switching models is also discussed, as is the estimation of these models using maximum likelihood and their comparison in a multivariate setting. The computation of the CTE provision is further presented. We have estimated the models with a multivariate dataset (Canada, United States, United Kingdom, and Japan), and we compared the quality of their fit using multiple criteria and tests. We observe that multivariate GARCH models provide a better overall fit than regime-switching models. However, regime-switching models appropriately represent the fat tails of the returns distribution, which is where most GARCH models fail. This leads to significant differences in the value of the CTE provisions, and, in general, provisions computed with regime-switching models are higher. Thus, the results from this multivariate analysis are in line with what was obtained in the literature of univariate models.