Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process

This article formulates a bivariate point process to jointlyanalyze trade and quote arrivals. In microstructure models,trades may reveal private information that is then incorporatedinto new price quotes. This article examines the speed of thisinformation flow and the circumstances that govern it. A jointlikelihood function for trade and quote arrivals is specifiedin a way that recognizes that an intervening trade sometimescensors the time between a trade and the subsequent quote. Modelsof trades and quotes are estimated for eight stocks using Tradeand Quote database (TAQ) data. The essential finding for thearrival of price quotes is that information flow variables,such as high trade arrival rates, large volume per trade, andwide bid–ask spreads, all predict more rapid price revisions.This means prices respond more quickly to trades when informationis flowing so that the price impacts of trades and ultimatelythe volatility of prices are high in such circumstances.     

SEMIPARAMETRIC VECTOR MEM

Financial time series are often non‐negative‐valued (volumes, trades, durations, realized volatility, daily range) and exhibit clustering. When joint dynamics is of interest, the vector multiplicative error model (vMEM; the element‐by‐element product of a vector of conditionally autoregressive scale factors and a multivariate i.i.d. innovation process) is a suitable strategy. Its parameters can be estimated by generalized method of moments, bypassing the problem of specifying a multivariate distribution for the errors. Simulated results show the gains in efficiency relative to an equation‐by‐equation approach. A vMEM on several measures of volatility justifies a joint approach revealing full interdependence. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Priced risk and asymmetric volatility in the cross section of skewness

We investigate the sources of skewness in aggregate risk factors and the cross section of stock returns. In an ICAPM setting with conditional volatility, we find theoretical time series predictions on the relationships among volatility, returns, and skewness for priced risk factors. Market returns resemble these predictions; however, size, book-to-market, and momentum factor returns are not always consistent with our predictions. We find evidence that size and book-to-market may be priced post-crisis but not in the decade before. Momentum does not appear priced by our test. We link aggregate risk and skewness to individual stocks and find empirically that the risk aversion effect manifests in individual stock skewness. Additionally, we find several firm characteristics that explain stock skewness. Smaller firms, value firms, highly levered firms, and firms with poor credit ratings have more positive skewness.     

Index-option pricing with stochastic volatility and the value of accurate variance forecasts

In pricing primary-market options and in making secondary markets, financial intermediaries depend on the quality of forecasts of the variance of the underlying assets. Hence, pricing of options provides the appropriate test of forecasts of asset volatility. NYSE index returns over the period of 1968–1991 suggest that pricing index options of up to 90-days maturity would be more accurate when: (1) using ARCH specifications in place of a moving average of squared returns; (2) using Hull and White's (1987) adjustment for stochastic variance in the Black and Scholes formula; (3) accounting explicitly for weekends and the slowdown of variance whenever the market is closed. (JEL C22, C53, C10, G11, G12)     

Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades

We propose a dynamic econometric microstructure model of trading,and we investigate how the dynamics of trades and trade compositioninteract with the evolution of market liquidity, market depth,and order flow. We estimate a bivariate generalized autoregressiveintensity process for the arrival rates of informed and uninformedtrades for 16 actively traded stocks over 15 years of transactiondata. Our results show that both informed and uninformed tradesare highly persistent, but that the uninformed arrival forecastsrespond negatively to past forecasts of the informed intensity.Our estimation generates daily conditional arrival rates ofinformed and uninformed trades, which we use to construct forecastsof the probability of information-based trade (PIN). These forecastsare used in turn to forecast market liquidity as measured bybid-ask spreads and the price impact of orders. We observe thatPINs vary across assets and over time, and most importantlythat they are correlated across assets. Our analysis shows thatone principal component explains much of the daily variationin PINs and that this systemic liquidity factor may be importantfor asset pricing. We also find that PINs tend to rise beforeearnings announcement days and decline afterwards.     

Why computer-mediated communication improves the effectiveness of fraud brainstorming

Current auditing standards require auditors to conduct a fraud brainstorming session aimed at considering ways in which the audit client's financial statements might be fraudulently misstated. Lynch et al. (2009) document that computer-mediated fraud brainstorming is significantly more effective than face-to-face brainstorming for generating relevant fraud risks. In this study, we code and analyze process-level data from the Lynch et al. (2009) study to understand the factors contributing to the greater effectiveness of electronic fraud brainstorming. Specifically, we conduct mediation analysis to discern the degree to which equality of participation and two measures of task focus contribute to greater fraud brainstorming effectiveness when using a computer-mediated communication system compared to traditional face-to-face brainstorming. We also examine participants' perceptions of ease of system use, satisfaction with the process, and satisfaction with the outcome. Overall, the results indicate that the primary reason for the greater effectiveness of electronic fraud brainstorming is the greater degree of task focus as revealed through the length of comments made when using computer-mediated fraud brainstorming. In an absolute sense, participants using electronic brainstorming felt that their brainstorming mode was easy to use and they were satisfied with the process and outcome. The primary contribution of this study is in enhancing our understanding of precisely why computer-mediated fraud brainstorming outperforms face-to-face fraud brainstorming.     

Time and the Price Impact of a Trade

We use Hasbrouck's (1991) vector autoregressive model for prices and trades to empirically test and assess the role played by the waiting time between consecutive transactions in the process of price formation. We find that as the time duration between transactions decreases, the price impact of trades, the speed of price adjustment to trade-related information, and the positive autocorrelation of signed trades all increase. This suggests that times when markets are most active are times when there is an increased presence of informed traders; we interpret such markets as having reduced liquidity.     

Advertising and the Consumer

Abstract

This article is a re-evaluation of advertising as a method of mass communication of ideas and information to attempt to influence opinions and attitudes. Advertising used for these purposes has certain advantages compared with other means of mass communications. There are. however, disadvantages and limitations which should be recognized if the effectiveness of this use of advertising is to be improved.     

Actors-in-Time: A Proposed Real Time,Decisional Model for Evaluating the Ethical Content of Decisions in the Financial Services Industry

A number of theoretical approaches to ethicaldecision making in the business context arecriticized as being too complex and cumbersometo be useful in day to day decision making. Byway of a potential solution, the authorspresent a universalistic, real-time model forassessing and resolving ethical decisions. Utilizing this model requires students andpractitioners to evaluate their decisionsaccording to two dimensions. In the firstdimension, stakeholders are identified aseither ``insiders' or ``outsiders' relating tothe differential advantages and/ordisadvantages a decision has on these twogroups. With the second dimension, consequences for the short term and long termfor these two stakeholder groups are assessed. The paper concludes with an illustration fromreal financial services business decisions asviewed through the model. These examplesprovide readers a sense of the model'spotential for consulting and pedagogicalpurposes.