Stability of stochastic optimal growth models: a new approach

The paper proposes an Euler equation technique for analyzing the stability of differentiable stochastic programs. The main innovation is to use marginal reward directly as a Foster-Lyapunov function. This allows us to extend known stability results for stochastic optimal growth models, both weakening hypotheses and strengthening conclusions.     

Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper introduces sector-specific externalities in the Heckscher-Ohlin two-country dynamic general equilibrium model to show that indeterminacy of the equilibrium path in the world market can occur. Under certain conditions in terms of factor intensities, there are multiple equilibrium paths from the same initial distribution of capital in the world market, and the distribution of capital in the limit differs among equilibrium paths. One equilibrium path converges to a long-run equilibrium in which the international ranking of factor endowment ratios differs from the initial ranking; another equilibrium path maintains the initial ranking and converges to another long-run equilibrium. Since the path realized is indeterminate, so is the long-run trade pattern. Therefore, the Long-Run Heckscher-Ohlin prediction is vulnerable to the introduction of externality. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E13, E32, F11, F43.     

Long-Run Effects of Monetary Expansion in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper explores the long-run effects of monetary expansion by introducing a cash-in-advance constraint into one of the basic models of endogenous growth. In our model, the real side of the economy consists of two production sectors, one of which produces a final good that can be used either for consumption or for investment and the other produces new human capital. Both sectors use physical and human capital under constant returns to scale technologies. We first characterize the balanced-growth equilibrium and then examine how a rise in money growth affects the relevant variables, such as the long-term growth rate and the relative prices.     

Event satisfaction,leisure involvement and life satisfaction at a walking event: the mediating role of life domain satisfaction

Given the rising popularity of mass-participant sport, such as walking and running events, research has started to address whether these types of events could promote life satisfaction for participants. Nevertheless, the theoretical link between event participation and life satisfaction has not been fully elaborated. Using bottom-up theory of life satisfaction, this study examined the role of event satisfaction and the three facets of leisure involvement – attraction, centrality and self-expression – in people’s life domain satisfaction and life satisfaction. Participants (N = 236) were recruited from a walking event held in western Japan. The results of the study revealed that event satisfaction had positive, indirect effects on life satisfaction through satisfaction with family life and personal achievement. Attraction in walking also had positive, indirect effects on life satisfaction through satisfaction with family life, personal achievement and social life. In contrast, centrality and self-expression in walking were not associated with satisfaction with any life domains and life satisfaction. Findings from this study highlight the importance of life domain satisfaction in the relationship between event satisfaction, leisure involvement and life satisfaction. These findings also suggest that walking events can promote life satisfaction by providing the enjoyment of walking as physically active leisure.     

A dynamic two country Heckscher–Ohlin model with non-homothetic preferences

We examine the properties of a two-country dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model that allows for preferences to be non-homothetic. We show that the model has a continuum of steady state equilibria under free trade, with the initial conditions determining which equilibrium will be attained. We establish conditions under which a static Heckscher–Ohlin theorem will hold in the steady state, and also conditions for a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin theorem to hold. If both goods are normal, each country will have a unique autarkic steady state, and all steady state equilibria are saddle points. We also consider the case in which one good is inferior, and show that this can lead to multiple autarkic steady states, violations of the static Heckscher–Ohlin theorem in the steady state. Furthermore, there may exist steady state equilibria that Pareto dominate other steady states. These steady states will be unstable if discount factors are the same in each country, although they may exhibit dynamic indeterminacy if discount factors differ.     

Who has benefited from the health services system for the elderly in Japan?

This paper examines the demand and supply of medical services for the elderly in the health services system characterized by per-month fixed copayment and selective capitation fee scheme for outpatients with chronic diseases. The results indicate that the beneficiary, in particular the household dependent, visits a physician more frequently because the actual copayment decreases for the household dependent, but is nearly the same for the head of the household. Physicians, however, provide more services to the beneficiary partly because of the lowered copayment and partly because of the capitation fee scheme, which they will select instead of the fee-for-service scheme only when capitation is more profitable than Fee-for-Service. As a result, physicians as well as the insured benefit from the health services system.     

An Empirical Examination of Export Variety: Regional Heterogeneity within a Nation

Recognising that similar goods are produced in different subregions within a country, we offer new evidence of variety expansion in a nation’s exports. We divide Japanese national exports into 41 prefectural subregions with over 7,000 product categories and construct subregional export margins for the years between 1988 and 2005. First, we find strong evidence of regional heterogeneity in terms of export product coverage, and the export variety of most regions expands in our sample period. Second, we find that the extensive margin accounts for over 60 per cent of the increase in exports of larger subregions, similar to the findings in the international cross‐country study. These findings imply that accounting for export variety in terms of new exports from subregions within a country strengthens the contribution of extensive margin in the growth of exports.     

Expectation-driven fluctuations and welfare loss under free trade in two-country models

This paper investigates the interlinkage in the business cycles based on expectation-driven fluctuations of large-country economies in a free-trade equilibrium. We consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with sector-specific externalities. We show that some country's expectation-driven fluctuations can spread throughout the world once trade opens even if the other country has determinacy under autarky. We thus prove that under free trade, globalization and market integration can have destabilizing effects on a country's competitive equilibrium. Finally, we characterize a configuration in which opening to international trade improves the stationary welfare at the world level but deteriorates the stationary welfare of the country that imports investment goods and exports consumption goods. We conclude that in opposition to the standard belief, international trade might not be beneficial to all trading partners in the long run.     

Spotting patterns on the fly

Recognizing and anticipating change in industry patterns is a core competence for companies today, allowing managers to capitalize on opportunities before they are apparent to others. Yet despite the growing realization that recognizing patterns is important, companies are far from mastering how to do it, especially at the strategic level, where information is usually less profuse and much less precise. Pattern recognition is not a new skill, though, at least not to people outside the business world. Since antiquity, naturalists have relied on their ability to spot patterns to make sense of their surroundings. And surprisingly, there is much businesspeople can learn from bird-watching--as removed as it may seem from the fast-paced, bruising world of business--in terms of the cognitive demands pattern recognition requires. To learn more, HBR spoke with David Sibley, perhaps the nation's foremost birdwatcher and illustrator, and Julia Yoshida, a birder since 1965 and a physician at the Lahey Clinic in Burlington, Massachusetts. Sibley explains how expert birders draw on a wealth of tacit knowledge built up over the years to make identifications in a matter of seconds: "Once you've mastered common patterns, the real trick is to educate yourself about where discrepancies are most likely to appear--and to concentrate your attention on those areas." Although so fast as to be almost unconscious, the process he describes seems to be as methodical as one of Yoshida's medical diagnoses. "Recognizing a pattern involves knowing what to look for, what the possibilities are, and then sorting out those patterns when you are actually confronted with the patient," Yoshida says. "I don't think it's a eureka moment at all. It's a methodical process."