Trade liberalization and industrial structure in Spain: An applied general equilibrium analysis

We empirically evaluate the aggregate welfare effects and structural adjustment for the Spanish economy that would follow from trade liberalization with the European Economic Community. Recent theory suggests that the classical gains form more liberal trade relations could be amplified substantially if EEC liberalization permits Spanish industries to realize economies of scale. These effects depend upon the extent of trade creation and trade diversion resulting from preferential liberalization, which in turn depend on the existing patterns of Spanish resource allocation, trade, and comparative advantage. The estimated results are derived from disaggregated microeconomic model of the Spanish economy. We find that increasing returns can actually be beneficial or detrimental, depending upon the interactions between trade and policy toward domestic industry.     

Fiscal transfers for biodiversity conservation: The Portuguese Local Finances Law

Biodiversity loss is a serious and ongoing global environmental problem. Economic instruments in biodiversity policies can contribute towards reconciling the conservation costs encountered at local level with the benefits of biodiversity conservation at higher levels of governance, from regional and national levels up to the global level. This paper outlines the theoretical foundations of fiscal transfers in conservation policies and also offers a concise account of existing international experience and future prospects. The recently amended Portuguese Local Finances Law (LFL) of 2007, with its groundbreaking new article on the promotion of local sustainability, is analysed in terms of the significance of fiscal transfers for municipal budgets. It is compared with its predecessor law, highlighting changes in fiscal revenues for selected municipalities in the country in relation to their designated conservation areas. The analysis shows that these ecological fiscal transfers can be significant for those municipalities with a large proportion of land under protected status. However, because it also introduces a considerable number of changes to the Portuguese fiscal transfer scheme, the ecological impact of the new LFL is difficult to grasp due to the presence of several crossover effects. The results obtained offer significant insights both for improving the Portuguese LFL and for designing new ecological fiscal transfer schemes.     

Structural comparisons of networks and model-based detection of small-worldness

In this paper, we consider the problem of assessing the “level of small-worldness” of a graph and of detecting small-worldness features in real networks. After discussing the limitations of classical approaches, based on the computation of network indicators, we propose a new procedure, which involves the comparison of network structures at different “observation scales”. This allows small-world features to be caught, even if “hidden” deeply into the network structure. Applications of the procedure to both simulated and real data show the effectiveness of the proposal, also in distinguishing between different small-world models and in detecting emerging small-worldness in dynamical networks.     

Community structure in the World Trade Network based on communicability distances

In this paper, we investigate the mesoscale structure of the World Trade Network. In this framework, a specific role is assumed by short- and long-range interactions, and hence by any suitably defined network-based distance between countries. Therefore, we identify clusters through a new procedure that exploits Estrada communicability distance and the vibrational communicability distance, which turn out to be particularly suitable for catching the inner structure of the economic network. The proposed methodology aims at finding the distance threshold that maximizes a specific quality function defined for general metric spaces. Main advantages regard the computational efficiency of the procedure as well as the possibility to inspect intercluster and intracluster properties of the resulting communities. The numerical analysis highlights peculiar relationships between countries and provides a rich set of information that can hardly be achieved within alternative clustering approaches.

     

Estudio de los factores de compra de productos retro y segmentación del mercado potencial retro

This paper aims to analyze the behavior of potential retro products buyers. A bibliographical review has allowed defining the motives to buy this type of products. However, it should be emphasized that there is scarcely any quantitative information on the reasons to purchase and the segmentation of the potential retro product market. Using the data collected by means of a survey, a factor analysis and a cluster analysis have been performed. As a result, there are three factors of retro product purchase: characteristics of product, present differentiation feelings and past feelings. Furthermore, the existence of two differentiated segments has been detected: emotive consumer and commercial consumer.     

Hierarchical structures in the aggregation of premium risk for insurance underwriting

In the valuation of the Solvency II capital requirement, the correct appraisal of risk dependencies acquires particular relevance. These dependencies refer to the recognition of risk diversification in the aggregation process and there are different levels of aggregation and hence different types of diversification. For instance, for a non-life company at the first level the risk components of each single line of business (e.g. premium, reserve, and CAT risks) need to be combined in the overall portfolio, the second level regards the aggregation of different kind of risks as, for example, market and underwriting risk, and finally various solo legal entities could be joined together in a group.

Solvency II allows companies to capture these diversification effects in capital requirement assessment, but the identification of a proper methodology can represent a delicate issue. Indeed, while internal models by simulation approaches permit usually to obtain the portfolio multivariate distribution only in the independence case, generally the use of copula functions can consent to have the multivariate distribution under dependence assumptions too.

However, the choice of the copula and the parameter estimation could be very problematic when only few data are available. So it could be useful to find a closed formula based on Internal Models independence results with the aim to obtain the capital requirement under dependence assumption.

A simple technique, to measure the diversification effect in capital requirement assessment, is the formula, proposed by Solvency II quantitative impact studies, focused on the aggregation of capital charges, the latter equal to percentile minus average of total claims amount distribution of single line of business (LoB), using a linear correlation matrix.

On the other hand, this formula produces the correct result only for a restricted class of distributions, while it may underestimate the diversification effect.

In this paper we present an alternative method, based on the idea to adjust that formula with proper calibration factors (proposed by Sandström (2007)) and appropriately extended with the aim to consider very skewed distribution too.

In the last part considering different non-life multi-line insurers, we compare the capital requirements obtained, for only premium risk, applying the aggregation formula to the results derived by elliptical copulas and hierarchical Archimedean copulas.     

Estimating the Marginal Contribution to Systemic Risk by A CoVaR‐model Based on Copula Functions and Extreme Value Theory

In this paper, we quantify the contribution to systemic risk of a single financial institution by utilizing a analytical framework based on the principles of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for modelling the marginal distributions and on the properties of copula functions for describing the dependence structure between the financial system and the single financial institution. Among the several systemic risk measures proposed nowadays by academics and estimated by public data, we choose to adopt as systemic risk metric the Conditional Value‐at‐Risk (CoVaR). We select a co‐risk measure like the CoVaR because of its macro‐dimension that allows us to integrate the dependence structure of the single financial institution and of the whole financial system in the systemic risk measurement. While the copula functions have been utilized in some pioneer studies on this area, the EVT principles have not yet been implemented in such a context of systemic risk contribution measurement.     

Interregional Migration and Thresholds: Evidence from Spain

We analyse the effects of labour market factors on interregional migration in Spain for the period 1988–2010. A basic theoretical framework is developed, suggesting that the effect of labour market variables on migration varies, depending on a certain threshold. The model implications are tested using a new approach based on the presence of endogenous thresholds. We show that Spanish interregional migration can be explained by labour market variables when the labour market conditions at the source region are unfavourable relative to those of the host region. We test the results for several migrant characteristics, such as citizenship, the age range, and return migration.

Migration inter-régionale et seuils - résultats de la recherche en Espagne     

Networks and market-based measures of systemic risk: the European banking system in the aftermath of the financial crisis

This article investigates the behaviour of the European banking system during the financial crises that occurred in the last decades. Among the various approaches for measuring systemic risk, we consider network analysis, which describes the linkages among financial institutions and their whole structure. We construct a time-varying network of the European banking system. Banks are linked to form a global interconnected system and they mutually influence one another in terms of risk. We model their reciprocal influence via a weighted and directed network, in which weights are related to risk measures that are based on equity returns. Then, we apply two network indicators to investigate the prominence of a bank in spreading and receiving risk from the others. The results enable us to capture many features of the banking system while identifying the global systemically important banks. Moreover, the results of the analysis over time show how interconnections change over periods that are characterized by various economic scenarios.