VARIANCE BOUND TESTS OF BOND MARKET EFFICIENCY

In this paper we examine variance bound tests of the joint hypothesis that (1) bond markets are efficient and (2) the term structure is determined by the expectations hypothesis. Both the Singleton and Shiller tests are shown to be seriously biased toward rejecting the joint hypothesis in finite samples. Flavin's test is unbiased but has a very high variance leading to many false rejections of the joint hypothesis. When corrected as suggested by Flavin, Shiller's test is unbiased and has a relatively low variance. Unfortunately, it is also sensitive to measurement error.     

Trade and Domestic Policy Linkage in International Agreements*

A central question in discussions of integrating negotiations over domestic policy (e.g., environmental policy or labor standards) into traditional trade agreements is the degree to which the trade policy and domestic policy provisions of an agreement should be explicitly linked. For example, should the World Trade Organization enforce domestic policy obligations with the threat of the suspension of trade concessions? This article considers the conditions under which linking trade and domestic policy agreements within a self‐enforcing agreement is beneficial, and argues that the benefits of such policy linkage may be lower than is commonly thought.     

Intraday Volatility in Interest‐Rate and Foreign‐Exchange Markets: ARCH,Announcement, and Seasonality Effects

We explore the determinants of intraday volatility in interest‐rate and foreign‐exchange markets, focusing on the importance and interaction of three types of information in predicting intraday volatility: (a) knowledge of recent past volatilities (i.e., ARCH or Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity effects); (b) prior knowledge of when major scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as the employment report or Producer Price Index, will be released; and (c) knowledge of seasonality patterns. We find that all three information sets have significant incremental predictive power, but macroeconomic announcements are the most important determinants of periods of very high intraday volatility (particularly in the interest‐rate markets). We show that because the three information sets are not independent, it is necessary to simultaneously consider all three to accurately measure intraday volatility patterns. For instance, we find that most of the previously documented time‐of‐day and day‐of‐the‐week volatility patterns in these markets are due to the tendency for macroeconomic announcements to occur on particular days and at particular times. Indeed, the familiar U‐shape completely disappears in the foreign‐exchange market. We also find that estimates of ARCH effects are considerably altered when we account for announcement effects and return periodicity; specifically, estimates of volatility persistence are sharply reduced. Separately, our results show that high volatility persists longer after shocks due to unscheduled announcements than after equivalent shocks due to scheduled announcements, indicating that market participants digest information much more quickly if they are prepared to receive it. However, contrary to results from equity markets, we find no evidence of a meaningful difference in volatility persistence after positive or negative price shocks. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21: 517–552, 2001     

The new new financial thing: The origins of financial innovations

The origins of financial innovations have attracted little empirical scrutiny. Using Wall Street Journal articles as an indicator, this paper examines which institutions were the key financial innovators between 1990 and 2002. The evidence suggests that smaller firms account for a disproportionate share of the innovations. Less profitable firms innovate more, though in the years subsequent to the introduction of the innovation, the profitability of the innovators increases significantly. Finally, older, less leveraged firms located in regions with more financial innovations innovate more. While several of the determinants of patenting are similar, small and unprofitable firms do not patent disproportionately.     

Uncertainty,competition, and costs in corporate bond underwriting

The effect of a syndicate's uncertainty regarding the demand for a new bond issue on the syndicate's choice of an offer and bid price, and on the spread between those two prices, is analyzed. Then, the impact of uncertainty on the spread is empirically tested. The hypothesis that the spread varies inversely with the number of bidders for an issue is also developed and tested, and several other hypothesized determinants of the spread are examined.     

Nicaragua's Buen Vivir: a strategy for tourism development?

ABSTRACT

Although often framed as an emerging anthropocenic socio-ecological imaginary, the Latin American paradigm of Buen Vivir has provided a broad base of support for tourism development in the region. This article focuses on Nicaragua's Buen Vivir, a national development campaign entitled “Live Clean, Live Healthy, Live Beautiful, Live Well” (called Vivir Bonito, Vivir Bien) The campaign was launched in 2013 as a multi-pronged approach to integrated development in distinct areas including employment, public health, waste management, education, urban aesthetics and national pride. However, it has also had the effect of opening up opportunities for tourism development not only in the capital city of Managua but also alongside other mega-projects such as the planned interoceanic canal. This article draws upon the example of Vivir Bonito, Vivir Bien to illustrate the variety of tourism development strategies currently emerging at the intersection of a left-turn toward Socialism of the 21st Century and Buen Vivir in Latin America, on the one hand, and a post-neoliberal context in which political economic projects of the past continue to leave their mark.     

How asymmetric is U.S. stock market volatility?

This paper explores differences in the impact of equally large positive and negative surprise return shocks in the aggregate U.S. stock market on: (1) the volatility predictions of asymmetric time-series models, (2) implied volatility, and (3) realized volatility. Following large negative surprise return shocks, both asymmetric time-series models (such as the EGARCH and GJR models) and implied volatility predict an increase in volatility and, consistent with this, ex post realized volatility normally rises as predicted. Following large positive return shocks, asymmetric time-series models predict an increase in volatility (albeit a much smaller increase than following a negative shock of the same magnitude), but both implied and realized volatilities generally fall sharply. While asymmetric time-series models predict a decline in volatility following near-zero returns, both implied and realized volatility are normally little changed from levels observed prior to the stable market. The reasons for the differences are explored.     

The performance of reverse leveraged buyouts

Reverse leveraged buyouts (RLBOs) have received increased public scrutiny but attracted little systematic study. We collect a comprehensive sample of 526 RLBOs between 1981 and 2003 and examine the three-year and five-year stock performance of these offerings. RLBOs appear to perform as well as or better than other initial public offerings and the stock market as a whole, depending on the specification. Evidence exists of a deterioration of returns over time.