Botswana's Macroeconomic Management of Its Mineral-Based Growth: It Used Mining Revenues for Development and Services but Must Now Broaden the Beneficiaries

Abstract . The economic performance and the political history of Botswana during 1974-84 contrasted significantly with the experience of virtually every other African country. The South African republic, immediately north of the Republic of South Africa, achieved steady real economic growth with improved social services and provision for its people's basic needs. This was achieved in spite of world recession and drought because its mineral wealth Was reserved for the people and mining companies had to pay for the privilege of extracting that wealth through a tax program limited to appropriating its surplus, while assuring the investors and entrepreneurs an adequate long-term return on capital and enterprise. But sound macroeconomic policies failed to provide even reasonably equitable benefits for the majority of the people. Sound micropolicies are needed to widen access to employment and earned income and to asset accumulation.     

Community participation in outdoor recreation and the development of Millennium Greens in England

A growth in community participation (CP) in outdoor recreation provision and maintenance emerged from the post-war voluntary movement but from the 1970s, discrete initiatives were spawned in the context of management experiments, threats to urban open space from development, the enhancement of forestry recreation opportunities and European funding to remoter rural areas. A shift in the style of government from an executive to an enabling role in the 1980s and 1990s has formalized CP in public policy. This has been exploited in CP for the rights of way system and in the provision of new recreation areas: Millennium Greens. An assessment of some of the characteristics of CP in Millennium Greens is provided in relation to motivations for their development, the support of the community, the social characteristics of those affected, their spatial distribution and raised expectations where schemes have been unsuccessful. It is concluded that some executive state controls over such schemes are necessary to ensure their effective operation but this too can be enhanced by involving communities in policy formulation as well as in development and implementation. There is some evidence to suggest that governmental enabling policies benefit those who are already most enabled relative to the more marginal sectors of society and this issue merits further research.     

Regional Impacts of a U.S. Hog Slaughter Plant Closing: The Thorn Apple Valley Case

As the 1998 U.S. hog market collapse unfolded, Thorn Apple Valley ceased hog slaughter operations at its Detroit, Michigan plant. We examine the impacts on Michigan live hog prices relative to Eastern Corn Belt hog prices. Results indicate that Michigan producers' relative price advantage diminished after the closure as procurement competition changed. As the impacts of the 1998 hog market collapse were absorbed, Michigan producers' relative price advantage became consistently negative. Examination of Michigan's market hog production distribution indicates postclosure shifts away from production in areas geographically near to Thorn Apple Valley and growth in counties geographically closer to alternative packers.     

Equity market data, bank failures and market efficiency

The paper examines the informational content of market data for long-term horizons in models, which predict bank failure. Univariate results document patterns such as declining prices, negative returns, declining dividends, and rising return volatility, up to 4 years before failure. Multivariate analysis shows that market information improves the failure predictive content of traditional models, which are based on accounting data. Out-of-sample predictions show that the use of stock market data does improve the forecast of bank failure. Furthermore, the persistence of this contribution generally increases with greater distances from the date of failure documenting the forward-looking nature of financial markets.     

Prospects and problems in modeling group decisions

This paper summarizes some of the major issues related to group decision modeling. We briefly review the existing work on group choice models in marketing and consumer research. We draw some generalizations about which models work well when and use those generalizations to provide guidelines for future research.     

From pushchairs to wheelchairs: understanding tensions in family decision making through the experiences of adult children caring for ageing parents

Abstract

Within a modern family life, roles have changed significantly; however, relatively little attention has been given to the increased health and longevity of parents. This article focuses on the tensions relating to the transitional role of parent as ‘carer of the child’ to child as ‘carer of the parent’ as parents age. This article focuses on the experiences of adult children as they care for their parents and the related tensions that emerge and coping strategies that are adopted. Adopting an interpretive approach we shed light on the decision-making practices around shopping, residential arrangements and other consumer choices and how they take place in complex arenas of intricate family interactions, influence and power. Key themes that emerged were strategies adopted by both the adult child and ageing parent to attain or retain control in an increasingly sensitive environment where there is no roadmap to guide either party.     

OR vice: Forecasting and classification techniques for narcotics interdiction

Counternarcotics interdiction efforts have traditionally relied on historically determined sorting criteria or “best guess” to find and classify suspected smuggling traffic. We present a more quantitative approach which incorporates customized database applications, graphics software and statistical modeling techniques to develop forecasting and classification models. Preliminary results show that statistical methodology can improve interdiction rates and reduce forecast error. The idea of predictive modeling is thus gaining support in the counterdrug community. The problem is divided into sea, air and land forecasting, only part of which will be addressed here. The maritime problem is solved using multiple regression in lieu of multivariate time series. This model predicts illegal boat counts by behavior and geographic region. We developed support software to present the forecasts and to automate the process of performing periodic model updates. During the period, the model was in use at. Coast Guard Headquarters. Because of deterrence provided by improved intervention, the vessel seizure rate declined from 1 every 36 hours to 1 every 6 months. Due in part to the success of the sea model, the maritime movement of marijuana has ceased to be a major threat. The air problem is more complex, and required us to locally design data collection and display software. Intelligence analysts are using a customized relational database application with a map overlay to perform visual pattern recognition of smuggling routes. We are solving the modeling portion of the air problem using multiple regression for regional forecasts of traffic density, and discriminant analysis to develop tactical models that classify “good guys” and “bad guys”. The air models are still under development, but we discuss some modeling considerations and preliminary results. The land problem is even more difficult, and data collection is still in progress.