WORLD CUP 2010: SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES AND POLICY CHALLENGES INFORMED BY THE EXPERIENCE OF GERMANY 2006

The paper provides an ex post analysis of the financial burden and economic benefits of the World Cup (WC) in Germany 2006. Based on the usual cost-benefit measures, the experience of WC 2006 appears to be in line with existing empirical research on large sporting events and sports stadiums, which have rarely identified significant net economic benefits. The lessons from Germany 2006 provide a context for analyzing the potential risks and benefits for South Africa (SA), the WC hosts in 2010. For SA, a careful analysis might be even more urgent to assure the sustainability of investment in stadiums. The paper also argues that the "feel-good" and public image effects of sports events should no longer be neglected in cost-benefit studies of large sporting events, even though these effects have the character of experience goods, and their value are thus likely to be underestimated ex ante. ( JEL L83, R53, R58)     

Between groups and total income inequality indices; U.S. 19601

The study contains a theoretical analysis on the behavior of a between groups Lorenz Index. The variables affecting this index are utilized to construct between groups indices for white-non-white; rural-urban; above 65 yr old-younger; population groups by state for 1960. The constructed indices were then used as explanatory variables for the state total Lorenz Index. It was found that they explained over 80 per cent of the variance. Adding other socio-economic variables enabled us to explain over 90 per cent of the variance of state Lorenz indices.     

Opportunities to reduce road traffic injury: new insights from the study of urban areas

Abstract

Over the past four decades considerable efforts have been taken to mitigate the growing burden of road injury. With increasing urbanisation along with global mobility that demands not only safe but equitable, efficient and clean (reduced carbon footprint) transport, the responses to dealing with the burgeoning road traffic injury in low- and middle-income countries has become increasingly complex. In this paper, we apply unique methods to identify important strategies that could be implemented to reduce road traffic injury in the Asia-Pacific region; a region comprising large middle-income countries (China and India) that are currently in the throes of rapid motorisation. Using a convolutional neural network approach, we clustered countries containing a total of 1632 cities from around the world into groups based on urban characteristics related to road and public transport infrastructure. We then analysed 20 countries (containing 689 cities) from the Asia-Pacific region and assessed the global burden of disease attributed to road traffic injury and these various urban characteristics. This study demonstrates the utility of employing image recognition methods to discover new insights that afford urban and transport planning opportunities to mitigate road traffic injury at a regional and global scale.     

The online laboratory: conducting experiments in a real labor market

Online labor markets have great potential as platforms for conducting experiments. They provide immediate access to a large and diverse subject pool, and allow researchers to control the experimental context. Online experiments, we show, can be just as valid—both internally and externally—as laboratory and field experiments, while often requiring far less money and time to design and conduct. To demonstrate their value, we use an online labor market to replicate three classic experiments. The first finds quantitative agreement between levels of cooperation in a prisoner’s dilemma played online and in the physical laboratory. The second shows—consistent with behavior in the traditional laboratory—that online subjects respond to priming by altering their choices. The third demonstrates that when an identical decision is framed differently, individuals reverse their choice, thus replicating a famed Tversky-Kahneman result. Then we conduct a field experiment showing that workers have upward-sloping labor supply curves. Finally, we analyze the challenges to online experiments, proposing methods to cope with the unique threats to validity in an online setting, and examining the conceptual issues surrounding the external validity of online results. We conclude by presenting our views on the potential role that online experiments can play within the social sciences, and then recommend software development priorities and best practices.     

The phoneless in the broadband age: A pilot study in Massachusetts

Questions about universal service continue to evolve as information and communication technology advances, bringing new platforms, services, and business models. Concerns about exclusion remain, particularly in times of transition to new technologies and platforms. While the universal service literature is rich in econometric studies that indicate the drivers of household telephone penetration, without qualitative data directly from those households that experience phonelessness, we cannot understand the causes well enough to design effective policy. This research explores why people are phoneless in the current environment of increased platform and business model choices. Particular focus is placed on understanding the relationship between new technology, platforms and business models and phonelessness. Data is obtained from surveys completed by approximately 100 individuals in Massachusetts who are currently without any voice connection, either landline or mobile, or have been sometime in the past ten years. The survey includes questions about different platforms and communication services in order to learn how they have led to phonelessness. The results of the pilot study show that the vast majority of phoneless households do not choose to be phoneless. The study also shows that the most frequent causes of phonelessness in this population are unemployment and unpredictable bills. Many instances of unpredictable bills leading to phonelessness occur with wireless service or bundled services but are the result of business models for service provision rather than the platforms themselves. Prepaid wireless service is a market-based solution that helps households prevent phonelessness by reducing unpredictability. Universal service policy for voice and broadband can better reduce exclusion with greater attention to business models and practices versus technologies and platforms, and increased emphasis on prepaid service to reduce unpredictability.     

The Leontief paradox in a multi-country setting: Comments

Conclusions Apart from the commodity mix effect, exports, imports consumption and production respond identically to changes in relative capital endowment, regardless of whether one refers to physical capital, human capital or total capital. Hence, when allowing technology and product mix to vary, one cannot distinguish between export goods and import goods in terms of capital intensity. These conclusions are still in agreement with Hirsch [1977, p. 418] who argues “Poor countries export low capital-intensive and import high capital-intensive goods, while rich countries import low capital-intensive and export high capital-intensive goods.” The only response that is significantly different is due to the commodity mix effect.     

A Sticky Information Phillips Curve for South Africa

Mankiw and Reis propose the Sticky Information Phillips Curve (SIPC) as an alternative to the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve to address empirical shortcomings in the latter. A SIPC for South Africa is estimated, and we find estimates of information updating probability between 0.69 and 0.81, somewhat higher than suggested by methods using micro‐evidence. Because the estimation requires data on expectations of current period inflation and output gap conditional on sequences of earlier period information sets, we provide a detailed analysis of the impact on our estimates of alternative proxies available in South Africa.