A Welfare-Based Analysis of International Monetary Policy Spillovers at the Zero Lower Bound

We study the welfare effects of international monetary policy spillovers at the zero lower bound, focusing on the effects of forward guidance in a large economy (“foreign”) on its smaller trading partner (“home”) in scenarios motivated by the global financial crisis. We find that foreign forward guidance has an overall prosper-thy-neighbor effect on the home economy as long as it increases foreign welfare. This finding holds under alternative assumptions about exchange rate pass-through or the degree of international financial integration. However, foreign forward guidance may worsen the trade-off between the stabilization objectives of home monetary policy.     

Sparse Signals in the Cross‐Section of Returns

This paper applies the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to make rolling one‐minute‐ahead return forecasts using the entire cross‐section of lagged returns as candidate predictors. The LASSO increases both out‐of‐sample fit and forecast‐implied Sharpe ratios. This out‐of‐sample success comes from identifying predictors that are unexpected, short‐lived, and sparse. Although the LASSO uses a statistical rule rather than economic intuition to identify predictors, the predictors it identifies are nevertheless associated with economically meaningful events: the LASSO tends to identify as predictors stocks with news about fundamentals.     

传统的会计方法会抑制技术革新吗?(下篇)

财务指标在决定一个项目是否应该上马时是十分重要的。但企业需要使用一系列会计和非会计方法来决定如何推进项目。     

国际策展经验与亚洲当代艺术:CIGE2009论坛

Sook-Kyung Lee泰特利物浦美术馆每两年举办一次利物浦双年展,我们的顾问有来自包括台北等亚洲其他地区的策展人,正因为有了这些身份多元的策展人的参与,使得我们能够在展览当中充分地体现出不同地区的一些作品。     

Modeling Structural and Temporal Variation in the Market's Valuation of Banking Firms

Hidden capital exists whenever the accounting measure of a firm's net worth diverges from its economic value. Such unbooked capital has on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet sources. This paper develops a model to estimate both forms of hidden capital and to test hypotheses about their determinants. In effect, the analysis expands the two-index model by endogenizing the market and interest-rate sensitivities of any stock and decomposing each sensitivity into on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet elements. For a sample of banks during 1975–1985, the model finds considerable variation in both forms of hidden capital.