The demand for industrial sites in a metropolitan area: Theory,empirical evidence,and policy implications

A model of urban manufacturing location is developed in order to explain the demand for industrial sites in a metropolitan area. Within the theory of qualitative choice behavior, firms identified by a set of eight characteristics are viewed as selecting sites possessing two attributes of varying degrees of importance to different kinds of firms. Using a multinomial logit specification, the model is estimated for the Cincinnati SMSA. The results lend support to the firm-specific nature of the site selection process. Information concerning the determination of the spatial distribution of the firm types in Cincinnati is derived from the analysis. Implications for the possible effectiveness of a policy initiative designed to alter existing patterns of urban industrial location conclude the paper.     

The Short-Run Relationship Between Sectoral Shifts and U.S. Labor Market Fluctuations

Monthly data for the aggregate U.S. economy are used to assess competing hypotheses concerning the relationship between sectoral employment shifts and fluctuations in the unemployment rate. It is shown that sectoral shifts are caused by major work stoppages, aggregate fluctuations unrelated to permanent sectoral shifts, a reallocation-timing effect, and allocative shocks at the sectoral level. Larger employment shifts are associated with higher unemployment during slow growth periods and lower unemployment during above-average growth periods. Models are presented which demonstrate that both aggregate and allocative shocks are causes of cyclical increases in unemployment.     

The impact of sectoral shifts in investment on unemployment in U.S. labor markets

Capital stock data for the U.S. economy are used to develop a measure of sectoral shifts in productive resources. Within the context of the creative destruction process, this measure provides a direct indicator of sectoral shifts in resource demands independent of aggregate fluctuations. Years with greater reallocations of capital have higher unemployment, a result consistent with the traditional sectoral shifts hypothesis. However, fluctuations in unemployment appear to be more strongly influenced by aggregate rather than sectoral shocks. Significant variation exists across demographic groups in the responsiveness of unemployment to aggregate fluctuations and sectoral shifts. The adverse impact of sectoral shifts is greater for males and members of the nonwhite labor force.     

Sources of sectoral fluctuations in business fixed investment

A model of macroeconomic complementarity is used to assess causes of comovement in investment spending across nine sectors of the U.S. economy. It is hypothesized that the irreversibility and uncertainty of investment spending imply a greater role for investment linkages and aggregate factors in investment fluctuations compared with estimates for employment and output. For the average sector, past investment growth across all sectors, changes in aggregate demand, and a common factor account for two-thirds of the variance of investment growth. After accounting for aggregate demand, sectoral shocks explain 70% of the average sector’s innovations to investment growth.     

Inflation, tax advantages to homeownership and the locational choices of households

The U.S. tax system encourages investment in owner-occupied housing by allowing consumers to deduct mortgage interest and to exclude net imputed rental income from taxable income. The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze how this tax treatment affects the housing and locational choices of urban households. It is shown that the effect of the tax treatment on these choices is sensitive to the preferences of consumers and the rate of anticipated inflation. To illustrate the likely size and direction of these effects, an example is constructed based upon econometric estimates of the parameters of the model.     

Production Adjustments for Consumer Durables and the Great Moderation

Explanations for the Great Moderation in GDP volatility have included improved management of inventory schedules, the good luck of smaller economic shocks, and better anti-inflation policy. This article provides direct evidence on the changes in production behavior underlying these explanations within a market model for consumer durable goods. Long-run price and sales elasticities are estimated using VECMs for 1959 through 1983 (period I) and 1984 through 2008 (period II). Significant and more effective adjustments to output growth in response to both market disequilibria and changes in demand occur in period II and contribute to the reduced volatility observed. During that time, 95 percent of market disequilibrium gaps were closed after four quarters, and current output adjusted to accommodate 90 percent of demand changes occurring during the preceding three quarters.     

An empirical analysis of the unit labor cost-product price relation in the U.S. economy

This article tests for cointegration between unit labor costs and the level of product prices in four sectors of the U.S. economy: the aggregate business sector, the nonfinancial corporate sector, durable manufacturing, and nondurable manufacturing. A finding of cointegration for most specifications supports the existence of long-run labor market equilibrium for producers and suggests estimation of error-correction models to examine the dynamic relationships. In every sector except nondurable manufacturing, error-correction model estimates indicate there is a mutual feedback relationship between unit labor costs and prices. Controlling for deviations from full employment, oil price shocks, and the Nixon wage and price controls, the results also provide evidence of significant nominal wage indexation in U.S. labor markets. Throughout the economy there appears to exist both effective neoclassical wage and price adjustment mechanisms to maintain labor market equilibrium and short-run rigidities which may contribute to deviations from full employment outcomes.     

Cooperatives in Italy

Simon Blackley's piece gives some observations on the Italian workers' coperative movement as seen by a British co-operator. It originates from the study tour of Italian coperatives which was arranged for delegates from five London coperatives by ICOM in October 1985, as part of the ICOM Pilot Programme. This brief portrait of the Italian experience raises some important questions about how workers control can be preserved in a large organisation.     

An Evaluation of Hedonic Price Indexes for Thirty-four Large SMSAs

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, a set of price indexes are developed for thirty-four metropolitan areas for the years 1975 and 1978. Indexes are also broken down by central city and suburb for twenty two of the metropolitan areas. These indexes measure variation in the price per unit of owner-occupied housing stock and the price per unit of housing services of rental housing. Confidence intervals are constructed for the price indexes. It is found that the indexes are reasonably precise measures in that the typical ratio of the confidence interval to the predicted median rent or value is about 13%. Also, analysis of the confidence intervals indicates substantial and statistically significant variation in the price of housing stock and services among the metropolitan areas studied. One of the major benefits of this set of indexes is that it can be used to address one of the most important questions in real estate — Why do housing prices and rents vary among metropolitan areas and over time? Research projects are currently underway that use the data to address these two questions.     

The Diffusion of Innovation in Home Building

Studies of housing demand and finance have dominated recent empirical research related to the housing industry. Housing supply has received considerably less attention, and empirical studies exploring the determinants of technological progress in the housing industry are quite limited. This paper investigates the factors that influence the propensity to adopt ten innovative methods and materials for a sample of 417 individual home building concerns obtained from the 1987 NAHB Builders' Profile Survey. A diffusion index reflecting the number of innovations used serves as the dependent variable in an ordered probit framework. Explanatory factors include economic conditions, characteristics of the firm and its operating head, the type of construction, and institutional and regional variables. Alternative specifications accurately predict the number of innovations adopted for about 32 to 34% of the sample. The estimation results suggest that firm size, type of construction, and regional effects are the key determinants of the propensity to adopt the innovations examined in this study. We find some evidence that demographic characteristics of a firm's operating head influence diffusion. Our results do not support the hypotheses that fragmentation reduces the likelihood of adopting innovations or that unionization of its employees affects a builder's propensity to adopt innovative methods and materials.