The effect of a tax training program on tax compliance and business outcomes of starting entrepreneurs: Evidence from a field experiment

This paper estimates the long-term impact of a short, partly personalized, mandatory tax training program on tax compliance and business outcomes of first-time entrepreneurs. To this end, we combine survey data, audit data and unique register data from the Netherlands' Tax and Customs Administration with a three year long randomized experiment. The results show that the training affects specific domains of tax compliant behavior. Moreover, it has no impact on business survival, but treated entrepreneurs have significantly higher profits compared to the control group due to lower business costs. These outcomes are partially supportive of our hypotheses developed from theories on tax compliance and mental accounting.     

Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for stochastic differential equations with random effects in the drift and the diffusion

Consider N independent stochastic processes \((X_i(t), t\in [0,T])\), \(i=1,\ldots , N\), defined by a stochastic differential equation with random effects where the drift term depends linearly on a random vector \(\Phi _i\) and the diffusion coefficient depends on another linear random effect \(\Psi _i\). For these effects, we consider a joint parametric distribution. We propose and study two approximate likelihoods for estimating the parameters of this joint distribution based on discrete observations of the processes on a fixed time interval. Consistent and \(\sqrt{N}\)-asymptotically Gaussian estimators are obtained when both the number of individuals and the number of observations per individual tend to infinity. The estimation methods are investigated on simulated data and show good performances.     

Measuring the effectiveness of US monetary policy during the COVID-19 recession

The COVID-19 recession that started in March 2020 led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity across the globe. To fight this recession, policy makers in central banks engaged in expansionary monetary policy. This paper asks whether the measures adopted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have been effective in boosting real activity and calming financial markets. To measure these effects at high frequencies, we propose a novel mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model. This model allows us to combine weekly and monthly information within a unified framework. Our model combines a set of macroeconomic aggregates such as industrial production, unemployment rates, and inflation with high-frequency information from financial markets such as stock prices, interest rate spreads, and weekly information on the Fed's balance sheet size. The latter set of high-frequency time series is used to dynamically interpolate the monthly time series to obtain weekly macroeconomic measures. We use this setup to simulate counterfactuals in absence of monetary stimulus. The results show that the monetary expansion caused higher output growth and stock market returns, more favorable long-term financing conditions and a depreciation of the US dollar compared with a no-policy benchmark scenario.     

Basic Income in the Finnish Context

The goal of the Finnish experiment that started this year is to try to get some evidence on how a new social policy instrument mimicking a basic income would work and what kind of behavioural consequences it would have. At this point, there are many strong arguments being made both in favour of and opposed to basic income. Unfortunately, there are not enough facts yet. The Finnish experiment hopes to change that.     

Autonomous Driving — a Challenge for the Automotive Industry

The automotive industry is one of the most important industries in Europe. This industry is responsible for 14% of total production and capital investment in the European manufacturing sector, and in Germany the share amounts to 22%. Structural change within this crucial sector is of relevance for the whole economy. Along with alternative propulsion systems such as electromobility, (semi-)autonomous vehicles are one of the big trends in the automotive industry. For established providers, the possibility of disruptive change poses a threat to existing markets, while a gradual introduction of new technologies also increases competition. Nevertheless, with their strong market position in the premium segment and especially their relevant research activities, European and especially German automotive manufacturers are well placed to successfully master the coming challenges in the automotive market.     

ANFA — National Money Creation as an Existential Threat to the Currency Union?

The recent publication of the previously secret Agreement on Net Financial Assets (ANFA) directed the public’s attention to the possibility that national central banks could create money through purchases of securities on their own account. This paper provides an overview of the legal foundations for ANFA and shows the varying extent to which the member countries use these regulations. What are the interests, risks and consequences for the countries in crisis and the currency union as a whole? Is the ECB properly monitoring ANFA purchases? Could money creation via ANFA act as an explosive device for the currency union?     

Assessing Industrial Buyer Preferences: Using the Swait-Louviere Test to Test the Key Informant Assumption

When using professional buyers to study an organizations buying behavior an important consideration is whether their preferences reflect those of the organization. Since this is a key informant problem, the present article focuses on the issue of the degree to which key informants can be used to provide insights into their own organizations preferences. We conduct a direct test of the key informant assumption using the Swait-Louviere test. In this test preferences from a choice experiment using actual buyers, and from market decisions made by the organization, are estimated separately, then jointly in multinomial logit models. We found that buyers experimental preferences were similar to estimates obtained from the market decisions. Buyers preferences were closer to the intuitive preferences of the organizations top executives than the estimates based on past market decisions, although a model based on the combined data outperformed either. We discuss the implications of these results for industrial buying research.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Contracting Under Endogenous Risk

Agents make decisions by trading off cost, return and risk. The literature, however, does not consider the impact of risk on action choice. We show that this tradeoff has important implications for the firm. First, the firm may provide no insurance in the salary. Since the agents action choice will determine her risk, the salary cannot compensate her for it. Second, the firm may not be able to design an incentive scheme to implement particularly risky actions. Finally, the firm may not be able to design a scheme in which the agent splits her effort across multiple tasks. This is particularly problematic for tasks that are technological substitutes.