ON VALUING STOCHASTIC PERPETUITIES USING NEW LONG HORIZON STOCK PRICE MODELS DISTINGUISHING BOOMS,BUSTS, AND BALANCED MARKETS

For longer horizons, assuming no dividend distributions, models for discounted stock prices in balanced markets are formulated as conditional expectations of nontrivial terminal random variables defined at infinity. Observing that extant models fail to have this property, new models are proposed. The new concept of a balanced market proposed here permits a distinction between such markets and unduly optimistic or pessimistic ones. A tractable example is developed and termed the discounted variance gamma model. Calibrations to market data provide empirical support. Additionally, procedures are presented for the valuation of path dependent stochastic perpetuities. Evidence is provided for long dated equity linked claims paying coupon for time spent by equity above a lower barrier, being underpriced by extant models relative to the new discounted ones. Given the popularity of such claims, the resulting mispricing could possibly take some corrections. Furthermore for these new discounted models, implied volatility curves do not flatten out at the larger maturities.     

The growth path of the dynamic Asian economies

The rapid and sustained growth of several Asian economies led researchers, policymakers, and decision‐makers in the world of international business to search for a plausible Asian model of growth. Numerous explanations of the dynamic growth in Asia have been put forward, including the ‘new structuralist’ approach proposed by Lin (2012). This paper examines the various explanations of what these countries did to unleash their growth potential. Industrial policy and market intervention are two such explanations. While the dynamic Asian economies did not flout the Washington Consensus, they adapted it in different ways. The policies that they followed under the Beijing Consensus allowed them to proactively follow pro‐business policies. They also exploited the concepts of economic statism or state capitalism, which became an integral part of what became known as the ‘Asia model’.     

A two price theory of financial equilibrium with risk management implications

Financial primitives are introduced to define acceptable loss exposures when demands and supplies are defined on differing event spaces. Acceptable loss exposures are modeled by a convex cone of random variables containing the nonnegative random variables. The resulting financial equilibrium defines in general a two price economy. Analytical procedures for identifying the two prices are described. The size of the two price economy is fundamentally determined by the financial system that determines the size of the cone of acceptable losses. There are implications for accounting and risk management as liabilities would typically be valued at ask while assets are valued at bid with no data available on bidirectional prices for anything. Marking to market in such financial economies is at best marking to two price economies.     

GLOBALISATION: PAST AND PRESENT

This article compares and contrasts the two modern eras of globalisation, namely the one that started in the mid-nineteenth century and ended on the eve of World War I, and the contemporary era. Although in both periods globalisation brought down national barriers and integrated economies and societies, there were distinct characteristic features of both periods. For example, the scale of global integration through trade and financial channels during the contemporary era was unmatched by the previous phase of globalisation. Furthermore, never in history had global integration involved so many countries and people, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the global population.     

Purchasing power parity in the short and long run: a reappraisal of the post-1973 evidence

In this paper, an attempt is made to separate the short-run and long-run aspects of the purchasing power parity (PPP) relationship, using the techniques of band-spectral regression and cointegration for eight industrialized countries. The long-run PPP is first tested for all the eight countries, with reference to their nominal bilateral exchange rates vis-à-visthe US dollar. For five European currencies, the analysis is repeated with respect to the Deutschmark, with a separate consideration of the post-EMS period. In the concluding sections, possible reasons for PPP deviations are examined.     

Time Changes for Lévy Processes

The goal of this paper is to consider pure jump Lévy processes of finite variation with an infinite arrival rate of jumps as models for the logarithm of asset prices. These processes may be written as time-changed Brownian motion. We exhibit the explicit time change for each of a wide class of Lévy processes and show that the time change is a weighted price move measure of time. Additionally, we present a number of Lévy processes that are analytically tractable, in their characteristic functions and Lévy densities, and hence are relevant for option pricing.     

SIMPLE PROCESSES AND THE PRICING AND HEDGING OF CLIQUETS

For data on market prices for 246 cliquets we consider pricing these exotic options using a relatively simple path space. The path space is subsequently stressed to market implied stress levels as well as stress levels predicted from contract characteristics. An additive process transitioning from a Sato process to a Levy process is formulated and estimated on vanilla options. Ask prices constructed from predicted stress levels are observed to have an in sample correlation of 92% with market prices. Interestingly, it is observed that capped cash flows have negative stress levels while uncapped products have positive stress levels. We illustrate the effect of hedging cliquet liabilities using call options as hedging assets permitting a 10% reduction in ask prices.     

LIQUIDITY AND ASSET PRICING UNDER THE THREE‐MOMENT CAPM PARADIGM

We examine whether the use of the three‐moment capital asset pricing model can account for liquidity risk. We also make a comparative analysis of a four‐factor model based on Fama–French and Pástor–Stambaugh factors versus a model based solely on stock characteristics. Our findings suggest that neither of the models captures the liquidity premium nor do stock characteristics serve as proxies for liquidity. We also find that sensitivities of stock return to fluctuations in market liquidity do not subsume the effect of characteristic liquidity. Furthermore, our empirical findings are robust to differences in market microstructure or trading protocols between NYSE/AMEX and NASDAQ.