Forecasting value‐at‐risk in oil prices in the presence of volatility shifts

Recent evidence suggests shifts (structural breaks) in the volatility of returns causes non‐normality by significantly increasing kurtosis. In this paper, we endogenously detect significant shifts in the volatility of oil prices and incorporate this information to estimate Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) to accurately forecast large declines in oil prices. Our out‐of‐sample performance results indicate that the model, which incorporates both time varying volatility (without making any distributional assumptions) and shifts in volatility, produces more accurate VaR forecasts than several benchmark methods. We make a timely contribution as the recent more frequent occurrences of unexpected large oil price declines has gained significant attention because of its substantial impact on the financial markets and the global economy.     

Examining the extent of and determinants for sustainability assurance quality: The role of audit committees

This study examines the extent of and determinants for sustainability assurance quality. Data comprise sustainability assurance statements published by the top 100 listed companies in Australia and New Zealand from 2017 to 2019. The findings indicate that Australian companies lead their New Zealand counterparts in sustainability assurance. Although sustainability reporting has risen, assurance rates remain significantly low. Accountants dominate the market, and companies prefer to use their own auditors for sustainability assurance work. Sustainability assurance quality is poor and does not vary significantly among Australian and New Zealand companies. Low-quality sustainability assurance plays a limited role in mitigating potential stakeholder–agency conflicts. The regression analysis indicates that audit committee characteristics such as members' independence, industry/market expertise, and attending meetings enhance sustainability assurance quality, whereas audit committee size has no affect. These findings suggest that audit committee characteristics such as independence, industry expertise, and regular meeting attendance have the potential to reduce stakeholder–agency conflicts by improving the quality of sustainability statement assurance. Our findings build on the sustainability assurance literature by exploring current trends in sustainability assurance practices in Australia and New Zealand where corporate governance codes have been recently revised. Further, these findings are timely given recent changes in standards (International Standard on Assurance Engagements [ISAE] 3000 and Global Reporting Initiative [GRI]). Our study contributes to the audit committee literature and sheds light on the role played by audit committee characteristics on sustainability assurance statement quality. The study findings potentially offer useful insights for practitioners, standard setters, and regulators.     

Information technology and firm performance: mediation role of absorptive capacity and corporate entrepreneurship in manufacturing SMEs

ABSTRACT

The success of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) depends on dynamic capabilities, as it provides opportunities to remain competitive and perform well in the dynamic business environment. Although several studies show the significant positive impacts of dynamic capabilities on firm performance, our knowledge of the underlying mechanism through which IT capabilities affect the firm performance is not yet clear. Applying the dynamic capability view, this study investigates the intervening role of absorptive capacity and corporate entrepreneurship. The data of 417 respondents is collected from medium-sized manufacturing sector SMEs in Punjab, Pakistan. The research hypotheses have been analysed through the structural equation modelling method by using the Smart-PLS software. The research findings show that absorptive capacity and corporate entrepreneurship partially mediates the relationship between IT capabilities and firm performance. Furthermore, the sequential path of IT technical skills, absorptive capacity, corporate entrepreneurship, and firm performance is highly significant as compared to other paths.     

Exposure to Provincial and National Information and Firm Performance: Crisis Period Evidence from China

This paper examines the impact of exposure to provincial and national information on the performance of non-financial Chinese firms during the recent global financial crisis (2007 to 2009). The results show that firms with higher level of exposure to provincial information are affected less by the crisis than firms with higher level of exposure to national information. The results are also robust across various proxies of firm performance. The main contribution of this paper is to highlight sources of value for Chinese firms during the recent financial crisis. More importantly, this paper uses publicly available information to draw attention on the role played by national and provincial sources of information in defining firm performance during the recent global financial crisis.

     

The relationship between laissez-faire leadership and burnout: Mediation through work alienation and the moderating role of political skill

We tested the relationship between laissez-faire leadership and job burnout and the mediating role of work alienation in this relationship. We also examined the moderating role of political skill in the relationship between laissez-faire leadership and burnout. Based on time-lagged (three waves, two months apart) survey data collected from 272 employees in 92 firms operating in China, our results showed that laissez-faire leadership was positively related to burnout both directly and via work alienation. Moreover, the positive relationship between laissez-faire leadership and burnout was contingent on political skill, such that the relationship was weak when political skill was high. The study provides useful suggestions to help managers curb employees' feelings of burnout and work alienation.     

An experimental analysis of tax avoidance policies

Policies to reduce aggressive tax avoidance are increasingly being implemented or discussed in many countries around the world. Tax authorities hope that such policies will generate new tax revenue by increasing overall tax compliance. We present an experimental design to investigate the effect of a stylized anti-avoidance tax policy on tax compliance behavior. We highlight that anti-avoidance tax policies that reduce tax avoidance can also induce an increase in tax evasion (“substitution effect”), which limits the additional tax revenue these policies will generate. We show that the degree of substitution depends crucially on behavioral factors such as tax morale. Policymakers therefore also need to consider behavioral features while designing such policies and estimating their potential effects.     

Monetary policy tradeoffs between financial stability and price stability

We analyze the impact of interest rate policy on financial stability in an environment where banks can experience runs on their short‐term liabilities forcing them to sell assets at fire‐sale prices. Price adjustment frictions and a state‐dependent risk of financial crisis create the possibility of a policy tradeoff between price stability and financial stability. Focusing on Taylor rules with monetary policy possibly reacting to banks’ short‐term liabilities, we find that the optimized policy uses the extra tool to support investment at the expense of higher inflation and output volatility.     

Particle filters for continuous likelihood evaluation and maximisation

In this paper, a method is introduced for approximating the likelihood for the unknown parameters of a state space model. The approximation converges to the true likelihood as the simulation size goes to infinity. In addition, the approximating likelihood is continuous as a function of the unknown parameters under rather general conditions. The approach advocated is fast and robust, and it avoids many of the pitfalls associated with current techniques based upon importance sampling. We assess the performance of the method by considering a linear state space model, comparing the results with the Kalman filter, which delivers the true likelihood. We also apply the method to a non-Gaussian state space model, the stochastic volatility model, finding that the approach is efficient and effective. Applications to continuous time finance models and latent panel data models are considered. Two different multivariate approaches are proposed. The neoclassical growth model is considered as an application.     

Role of quality management capabilities in developing market-based organisational learning capabilities: Case study evidence from four Indian business process outsourcing firms

Business-to-business marketing literature acknowledges the value firms, including business process outsourcing firms, realise through their supplier networks. Such value realisation is often possible through a dynamic exchange of complementary organisational capabilities between a firm and its network partners. However, little is known about how outsourcing firms develop these capabilities and thus realise value. This paper addresses an unexplored theoretical gap of developing market-based organisational learning capabilities in business process outsourcing firms. Using a capabilities lens, this study assesses the impact of quality management capabilities in developing market-based organisational learning capability. Findings from a case study of four business process outsourcing firms in India suggest that effective knowledge transfer, diffusion and the development of market-based organisational learning capabilities are contingent upon the strength of a firm's quality management capabilities. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Modeling the time-varying volatility of the paper–bill spread

The spread between the rates on commercial paper and Treasury bills has received considerable attention in the literature for its role as an indicator of real economic activity. In this paper we empirically examine what happens when the volatility of the spread changes over time. We estimate a nonlinear model that enables us to discern the asymmetric impact of negative and positive shocks to the spread. We find that a positive shock has a larger impact on the volatility of the spread than does a negative shock.