A multivariate distance nonlinear causality test based on partial distance correlation: a machine learning application to energy futures

This paper proposes a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test (MDNC) using the partial distance correlation in a time series framework. Partial distance correlation as an extension of the Brownian distance correlation calculates the distance correlation between random vectors X and Y controlling for a random vector Z. Our test can detect nonlinear lagged relationships between time series, and when integrated with machine learning methods it can improve the forecasting power. We apply our method as a feature selection procedure and combine it with the support vector machine and random forests algorithms to study the forecast of the main energy financial time series (oil, coal, and natural gas futures). It shows substantial improvement in forecasting the fuel energy time series in comparison to the classical Granger causality method in time series.     

In search of a fitting moral psychology for practical wisdom: Exploring a missing link in virtuous management

While business as a social activity has involved communities of persons embedded in dense relational networks and practices for thousands of years, the modern legal, theoretical psychological, and moral foundations of business have progressively narrowed our understanding of practical wisdom. Although practical wisdom has recently regained ground in business ethics and management studies, thanks mainly to Anscombe's recovery of virtue ethics, Anscombe herself once observed that it lacks, and has even neglected, a moral psychology that genuinely complements the nuanced philosophical perspective of a virtue-centered moral philosophy. Herein, we offer one way to fill this gap by suggesting two opposing psychological paradigms, namely the inter-processual self and the autonomous self, which are classified according to the assumptions they make about the self, human agency and action more broadly, as well as how they relate to practical wisdom. Upon presenting these moral psychologies, we will bring this proposal into conversation with business ethics to show how the IPS paradigm can enable and support virtuous management.     

Co‐movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis

This article analyses co‐movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co‐movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid‐2008 to the end of 2009 co‐movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co‐movement during the sampled period.     

Money,Prices and the Silver Industry during the Price Revolution

The discovery of American silver has been commonly viewed in the literature as the moving force behind the sustained rise of prices experienced by Western Europe from the early 16th to the mid-17th century. However, the mechanical connection between the money supply and the general price level implied by the Quantity Theory oversimplifies the analysis of a period characterized by different trends, some of which cannot be easily explained by the monetarist story: (i) Central Europe silver mining boomed between 1451 and 1540 following a phase of scarcity of money that was especially severe between the end of the 14th century and the beginning of the 15th century; (ii) European prices started to rise before American silver was significantly imported to the Continent; (iii) the rapid expansion of American mining coincided with the decline of the European silver industry (1540–1618); and finally (iv) Mexican and Peruvian bullion production evidenced a downward course during the period 1628–1697, but no alteration in the rising trend of European prices occurred in response. It is argued instead that the classical theory of value and distribution, emphasizing costs of production as determinants of the ‘natural’ value of commodities including precious metals, can accommodate the facts in a more consistent manner than the monetarist view.     

After over 25 years of accrediting beaches,has Blue Flag contributed to sustainable management?

This paper examines the qualitative, quantitative, and geographical evolution (1987–2012) of the Blue Flag campaign and accreditation process in Spain, a leading coastal tourism destination heading the list of awards. The standard Blue Flag criteria for crowded, developed beaches are now adapting to new demands for natural beaches, but they still fail to capture essential sustainable tourism features, such as limiting user numbers, or preserving and restoring sand ecosystems. Given these shortcomings, some destinations are moving to alternative awards with a higher environmental commitment, such as EMS, ISO14001, and Eco-Management and Audit Schemes (EMAS). A cluster analysis of Blue Flag data for 983 beaches in Spain over 26 years revealed different behaviour patterns: established tourist areas that have always opted for the Blue Flag programme; tourist areas that adopted the Blue Flag early on but replaced it with ISO14001 and EMAS; recently developed destinations applying for the award to boost their tourism promotion; and tourist areas with no well-defined policy that have opted intermittently for Blue Flag. These profiles illustrate the different policies of Spain's Autonomous Regions, and they are useful for tourism managers to verify whether their destination's behaviour pattern contributes to sustainable tourism and matches strategic policies they have designed for them.     

What shapes local public transportation in Europe? Economics,mobility, institutions,and geography

This paper analyzes factors explaining supply and demand of local public transportation. Together with variables related to traditional economic factors and mobility, we consider variables reflecting institutional characteristics and geographical patterns. Being a political capital increases supply and demand of local public transportation, inequality is associated with higher supply, and contracting out reduces supply. Furthermore, our regional analysis allows us capturing the effect of geographical characteristics and different traditions of government intervention. In all, we provide first evidence on the role played by institutional and regional characteristics useful to achieve a better understanding of local public transportation supply and demand.     

Greenways: a sustainable leisure experience concept for both communities and tourists

This paper reviews the development of greenways/car-free trails as an alternative environmentally friendly communication system and assesses their strengths and weaknesses. It gives the results of a questionnaire survey of 1261 users along a 106-km greenway in Spain linking the Pyrenees with the Mediterranean Sea. Unlike previous studies, sampling was random and unequal probabilities of selection were properly accounted for. The results show a complex range of user profiles, tourist and non-tourist, their perceptions of the trail and some of the direct and indirect impacts of the greenway on the communities through which it passes. Management recommendations flowing from the survey are presented with the aim of increasing the use of accommodation services and businesses in the towns and villages near the greenway and helping create a more sustainable tourism system. The paper illustrates the potential importance of greenways in a future low-carbon tourism strategy adapting to climate change.     

A Sraffian interpretation of classical monetary controversies

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to explore the contrasting views of inflation, exchange rate misalignments and determinants of gold flows held by different branches of the classical school during the first half of the nineteenth century. The properties of money neutrality and money endogeneity within the classical system are studied by reinterpreting these controversies through the analytical framework of the surplus approach as reconstructed by Sraffa [Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1960] and his followers.     

The trade balance effects of infrastructure services regulation

This paper addresses the relationship between the design of incentives to firms under regulation, mainly the rule for adjusting tariffs, and trade balance performance of the country. We also explore whether this relationship is relevant or not for a typical developing economy like Argentina. We find it is. To study these issues we perform comparative static numerical exercises using a CGE model where service obligation and no entry in regulated industries are assumed. We show that the capital account openness and the rate of exchange regime could be key elements to match with the regulatory regime. The potential inconsistency between the international trade regime and the regulatory regime should not be rejected a priori.     

Automated trading with boosting and expert weighting

We propose a multi-stock automated trading system that relies on a layered structure consisting of a machine learning algorithm, an online learning utility, and a risk management overlay. Alternating decision tree (ADT), which is implemented with Logitboost, was chosen as the underlying algorithm. One of the strengths of our approach is that the algorithm is able to select the best combination of rules derived from well-known technical analysis indicators and is also able to select the best parameters of the technical indicators. Additionally, the online learning layer combines the output of several ADTs and suggests a short or long position. Finally, the risk management layer can validate the trading signal when it exceeds a specified non-zero threshold and limit the application of our trading strategy when it is not profitable. We test the expert weighting algorithm with data of 100 randomly selected companies of the S&P 500 index during the period 2003–2005. We find that this algorithm generates abnormal returns during the test period. Our experiments show that the boosting approach is able to improve the predictive capacity when indicators are combined and aggregated as a single predictor. Even more, the combination of indicators of different stocks demonstrated to be adequate in order to reduce the use of computational resources, and still maintain an adequate predictive capacity.