Do vertical spillovers differ by investors’ productivity? Theory and evidence from Vietnam

Developing countries are eager to host foreign direct investment to receive positive technology spillovers to their local firms. However, what types of foreign firms are desirable for the host country to achieve spillovers best? We address this question using firm‐level panel data from Vietnam to investigate whether foreign Asian investors in downstream sectors with different productivity affect the productivity of local Vietnamese firms in upstream sectors differently. Using endogenous structural breaks, we divide Asian investors into low‐, middle‐, and high‐productivity groups. The results suggest that the presence of the middle group has the strongest positive spillover effect. The differential spillover effects can be explained by a simple model with vertical linkages and productivity‐enhancing investment by local suppliers. The theoretical mechanism is also empirically confirmed.     

Using Constraint Programming to Design an Option-based Decision Support System

Financial options and futures give investors the opportunity to form complex strategies that meet their investment objectives for risk management. However, this opportunity gives rise to a difficult task: finding a desired strategy from among a large number of possible strategies. This paper describes an intelligent decision-support system for generating option-based investment strategies by using constraint programming, which is an integrated framework of Artificial Intelligence and Logic Programming. In this system, constraint programming acts as a bridge between qualitative and quantitative analyses in decision processes. In qualitative analysis, logical reasoning with hypotheses is used to automatically create complex strategies through abstract matching with investors' profiles. Here, abstract matching can be regarded as symbolic computation for producing qualitatively reasonable strategies. In quantitative analysis, a set of complete solutions that satisfy user-supplied constraints are obtained by constraint satisfaction and optimization. A constraint language based on the framework of Constraint Logic Programming has been developed in order to integrate these symbolic and numerical computations in a uniform way. The resulting system written in this language has the following features. (1) Unlike rule-based expert systems, the constraint-based system can create novel investment strategies. (2) A smooth transition from qualitative to quantitative analyses can be naturally achieved due to the constraint language. (3) Qualitative analysis can reduce search complexity, because the analysis focuses on a small set of qualitative distinctions in solution space. These features indicate the usefulness of constraint programming for designing intelligent decision-support systems.     

Portfolio Optimization under Lower Partial Risk Measures

Portfolio management using lower partial risk (downside risk) measures is attracting more attention of practitioners in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to review important characteristics of these riskmeasures and conduct simulation using four alternative measures, lower semi-variance, lower semi-absolute deviation, first order below targetrisk and conditional value-at-risk.We will show that these risk measures are useful to control downside risk whenthe distribution of assets is non-symmetric. Further, we will propose a computational scheme to resolve the difficultyassociated with solving a large dense linear programming problems resulting from these models. We will demonstrate that this method can in fact solve problems consisting of10⁴ assets and 10⁵ scenarios within a practical amount of CPU time.     

A polyhedral approximation approach to concave numerical dynamic programming

This paper introduces a numerical method for solving concave continuous state dynamic programming problems which is based on a pair of polyhedral approximations of concave functions. The method is globally convergent and produces computable upper and lower bounds on the value function which can in theory be made arbitrarily tight. This is true regardless of the pattern of binding constraints, the smoothness of model primitives, and the dimensionality and rectangularity of the state space. We illustrate the method's performance using an optimal firm management problem subject to credit constraints and partial investment irreversibilities.     

Lobbying and tax competition in an oligopolistic industry: a reverse home-market effect

This paper studies tax competition between two asymmetrical countries for an oligopolistic industry with many firms. Each government sets its tax rate strategically to maximize the weighted sum of residents’ welfare and political contributions by owners of firms. It is shown that if the governments care deeply about contributions and trade costs are low, the small country attracts a more than proportionate share of firms by setting a lower tax rate. The well-known home-market effect, which states that countries with a larger market attract a more-than-proportionate share of firms, may be reversed as a result of tax competition by politically interested governments.     

Does it matter where you invest? The impact of foreign direct investments on domestic job creation and destruction

This study examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects domestic employment by using unique division-level data of Japanese firms. Contrary to most previous studies focusing on the effect of FDI on net employment growth, we decompose it into job creation (JC) and job destruction (JD) for each individual firm. We find that FDI destination plays an important role: FDI to Asia increases JC, whereas FDI to Europe/North America decreases it; furthermore JD decreases, regardless of FDI destination. A frictional search-and-matching model with heterogeneous jobs can explain the differential effects. The model provides additional predictions on JC and JD by job type, which are also empirically confirmed.