Coordinating China's economic growth strategy via its government-controlled association for private firms

Scholars in economics and political science argue that one major function of government is to overcome coordination failure in economic development, especially during times of rapid environmental changes. But, how and through what means does the state coordinate firms to follow the changing directions of its economic objectives? This paper focuses on the case of a government-controlled business association, namely the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce (ACFIC), and shows that the ACFIC may be serving, at least partially, as a means of avoiding the kind of coordination failures that are often associated with policy reform programs in authoritarian regimes like China when the government deems it necessary to radically and suddenly change its policy objectives. It does so by comparing the activities of firms that are members of ACFIC with non-members before and after the world financial crisis of 2008–09 which induced a significant change in government objectives. Before that crisis when priority in government objectives was “outward” (to stave off balance of payments crises that had befallen many other developing countries), ACFIC member firms were able to engage in exports and foreign investment to a greater extent than non-member firms, and even than those whose owners are members of the Congresses or Chinese Communist Party. After viewing the crises in international markets, and government objectives had turned more “inward”, ACFIC members were more likely to focus on domestic sales and investments.     

New Perspectives on Real Estate Valuation

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics -     

How to fight against southern pine beetle epidemics: An insurance approach

The southern pine beetle (SPB) is among the leading biological agents killing southern pine species in the eastern United States. In light of recognized spatiotemporal autocorrelation in SPB outbreaks, we devise a spatiotemporal block bootstrapping method that can be applied to analyze spatiotemporally dependent infestations. We also identify the relevant risk determinants and evaluate their impacts on the frequency of SPB outbreaks. For example, we find forest type, climate, and natural disasters like storm and forest management are all significantly associated with SPB risks. Using the results of a statistical model, we design a county-level group index insurance plan that generates estimates of actuarially fair premium rates for timber stands containing southern pine species. Given that no government-provided compensation scheme for SPB epidemics currently exists, application of this new insurance product could reduce forest owners losses. Our study offers an approach to analyzing and protecting against risks of other destructive pests affecting the timber sector.     

Institutional underperformance: Should managers listen to the sell-side before trading?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study examines the performance of institutional trades in the context of recent analyst recommendation changes. We report several findings....     

Does Monetary Policy Respond to Uncertainty? Evidence from Australia

We construct a novel measure of uncertainty using expert monetary policy recommendation data for Australia. Our results suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to lower the cash rate when expert uncertainty is high. This result is robust to using other uncertainty measures.     

Out of control or right on the money? Funder self-efficacy and crowd bias in equity crowdfunding

Our findings extend the entrepreneurship literature by highlighting the mechanism through which self-efficacy can hinder rather than enhance performance in entrepreneurial settings. Using two complementary experimental studies and a third quasi-experimental field study on equity crowdfunding decisions, we demonstrate that self-efficacy is negatively related to decision-making performance. This relationship is mediated by reduced searching effort. Our research also indicates that high self-efficacy funders tend to exhibit a “crowd bias” whereby they over-weight the opinions of the crowd, increasing the likelihood that they will fund poor quality ventures when such ventures are favored by the crowd. We introduce the term crowd bias and explore its effects, establishing that social indicators in the form of crowd cues can exasperate the negative effects of self-efficacy.     

Systematic Managed Floating

Open Economies Review - A majority of countries neither freely float their currencies nor firmly peg. But most of the remainder in practice also don’t obey such well-defined intermediate...