Prospect Theory in the Heterogeneous Agent Model

Using the Heterogeneous Agent Model framework, we incorporate an extension based on Prospect Theory into a popular agent-based asset pricing model. This extension covers the phenomenon of loss aversion manifested in risk aversion and asymmetric treatment of gains and losses. Using Monte Carlo methods, we investigate behavior and statistical properties of the extended model and assess how our extension is manifested in different strategies. We show that, on the one hand, the Prospect Theory extension keeps the essential underlying mechanics of the model intact, but on the other hand it considerably changes the model dynamics. Stability of the model is increased and fundamentalists may be able to survive in the market more easily. When only the fundamentalists are loss-averse, other strategies profit more.

     

Trade credit and supplier competition

This paper examines how competition among suppliers affects their willingness to provide trade credit financing. Trade credit extended by a supplier to a cash constrained retailer allows the latter to increase cash purchases from its other suppliers, leading to a free rider problem. A supplier that represents a smaller share of the retailer’s purchases internalizes a smaller part of the benefit from increased spending by the retailer and, as a result, extends less trade credit relative to its sales. In consequence, retailers with dispersed suppliers obtain less trade credit than those whose suppliers are more concentrated. The free rider problem is especially detrimental to a trade creditor when the free-riding suppliers are its product market competitors, leading to a negative relation between product substitutability among suppliers to a given retailer and trade credit that the former provide to the latter. We test the model using both simulated and real data. The estimated relations are consistent with the model’s predictions and are statistically and economically significant.     

Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology that allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and to model stock market crashes. In the first step, we utilize high-frequency data to estimate daily realized volatility from returns. Then, we use stochastic cusp catastrophe theory on data normalized by the estimated volatility in the second step to study possible discontinuities in the markets. We support our methodology through simulations in which we discuss the importance of stochastic noise and volatility in a deterministic cusp catastrophe model. The methodology is empirically tested on nearly 27 years of US stock market returns covering several important recessions and crisis periods. While we find that the stock markets showed signs of bifurcation in the first half of the period, catastrophe theory was not able to confirm this behaviour in the second half. Translating the results, we find that the US stock market’s downturns were more likely to be driven by the endogenous market forces during the first half of the studied period, while during the second half of the period, exogenous forces seem to be driving the market’s instability. The results suggest that the proposed methodology provides an important shift in the application of catastrophe theory to stock markets.     

The relationships between stress,health, and physically active leisure as a function of life‐cycle

This article examines relationships between stress, health, and participation in physically active leisure using data collected as part of the 1985 and 1990 U.S. National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS). In particular, the article analyzes: (a) the effects of life‐cycle progression (controlled for gender) on subjectively perceived stress and self‐reported health; (b) the role of physically active leisure in enhancing health or buffering adverse health outcomes of stress; and (c) the effects of selected social‐economic factors, such as education and income, on the relationships between life‐cycle, stress, health, and physically active leisure. According to our analyses: (1) stress is unevenly distributed across the life span; (2) stress‐reducing effects of physically active leisure are present among retired older people more so than in the middle‐aged life‐cycle groups; and (3) direct health‐enhancing effects of participation in physically active leisure are more evident than the buffering effects of leisure on stress‐health relationships. A critical discussion of methodological and substantive issues facing researchers interested in the relationships between leisure, stress, and health is provided.     

Credit Support for Export: Robust Evidence from the Czech Republic

The topic of this paper is quite a novel one – it is one of few empirical academic papers dealing with export credit. Moreover, it is the first analysis of this kind which focuses on transition economies. The paper deals with export credit promotion in the Czech Republic. The development and structure of Czech trade and export support is presented first, followed by an econometric analysis of the gravity model of Czech Republic trade. A panel of 160 countries in 1996–2008 is analysed and two gravity models of exports for the Czech Republic are estimated, the static model by fixed effects (LSDV estimator) and the dynamic model by System GMM. Due to ambiguous conclusions we assume that the behaviour of our explanatory variables is not uniform and our data set behaves as a mixture of countries with heterogeneous behaviour. This means that traditional techniques of estimation which include all observations into one model do not give significant results. Thus, we use robust techniques of estimation that solve the problem of heterogeneous patterns in data sets. Out of several possibilities we use the Least Trimmed Squares estimator (LTS) with a leverage point. We show that guarantees are a significant factor that influences positively the volume of exports in the Czech Republic. Moreover, there exist more variables that affect the size of exports in the Czech Republic. Market forces described by GDP, distance, political risk or gross fix capital formation are significant in our econometric model. We find that higher GDP, shorter distance or lower political risk have a positive impact on Czech exports.     

REACHING THE RURAL POOR THROUGH AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVES IN MONGOLIA

This paper focuses on the cooperative sector in central Mongolia. Its aim is to provide new insights into the role and importance of cooperatives among poor rural populations. We analyse cooperatives’ inclusiveness of smaller herders and farmers and cooperatives’ governance structures. The research is based on data collected in selected provinces of the central Töv region. The data were collected for three distinctive target groups – cooperative board members, cooperative members and non‐members. We found that the cooperative sector in Mongolia is strongly affected by the governmental policy regarding wool subsidies, which provides subsidies only to cooperative members and has consequently caused rapid growth in the number of new, free‐riding cooperative members and led to very low levels of members’ self‐identification with their cooperatives. This policy also affects the inner organizational structures of cooperatives. Further, we found indications that poorer farmers tend not to be members of cooperatives and that the overall benefits for non‐members and the general community arising from local cooperatives are rather low.     

Technology assessment and risk analysis

The evolution of technology assessment from cost-benefit calculus to a sophisticated form of policy analysis has gone through at least three and possibly four stages. These stages, characterized by the degree of comprehensiveness aspired by the natural affinity of risk analysis to technology assessment, are explored in some detail, and it is postulated that risk analysis might very well follow a similar evolutionary path.     

Work and leisure in Thomas More’s Utopia

Relationship between work and leisure lays at the core of Thomas More’s political concerns and his vision of a Utopian society, but received little systematic research attention. This article addresses a question that has been often raised – whether Utopia expresses More’s views or is just a jest, since it in so many ways conflicts with his subsequent political stands and pronouncements. The article examines More’s vision of work and leisure within the context of his evolving social and political views and England’s political, economical and confessional challenges of the sixteenth century. The article proposes that the prospect of leisure offered in Utopia has been often simplified and the practice of a six-hour workday should not overshadow the fact that Utopians were expected to work 329 days a year and their leisure life was strongly regimented. The article suggests that, after being published, Utopia assumed its own life which foreshadowed both the challenges as well as some ominous aspects of future real-life Utopias. As a prophecy of a system of social justice and enlightened leisure Utopia failed, but it drew attention to the inherent dilemma of achieving a socially desirable and politically sustainable balance of work and leisure. More’s tragic end should not veil the relevancy of More’s intent (if not the solution) of bridging the gap between work and leisure – a task that remains remarkably salient today.