An agile approach for supply chain modeling

This paper proposes the generic label correcting (GLC) algorithm incorporated with the decision rules to solve supply chain modeling problems. The rough set theory is applied to reduce the complexity of data space and to induct decision rules. This proposed approach is agile because by combining various operators and comparators, different types of paths in the reduced networks can be solved with one algorithm. Furthermore, the four cases of the supply chain modeling are illustrated.     

Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence

The previous literature has largely overlooked the possible channels through which foreign direct investment (FDI) might influence business cycle synchronization. In this study we analyze the linkages that exist among FDI, trade and industrial dissimilarity in relation to business cycle co-movements using a panel data set taken from 77 pairs of developed countries. The error component three-stage least squares (EC3SLS) estimates from a simultaneous equations model with panel data are shown to be superior to the estimates obtained from single equation models or simultaneous equations models with cross-sectional data. Our results indicate that FDI serves as a channel of international business cycle transmission that is equally important as the channels of trade and monetary policy. On the contrary, industrial dissimilarity is identified as having an indirect impact on the business cycle correlation through trade and FDI. Furthermore, our findings suggest that in our sample FDI is of the horizontal type and tends to substitute for trade.     

Value at risk and conditional extreme value theory via markov regime switching models

This study develops a new conditional extreme value theory‐based (EVT) model that incorporates the Markov regime switching process to forecast extreme risks in the stock markets. The study combines the Markov switching ARCH (SWARCH) model (which uses different sets of parameters for various states to cope with the structural changes for measuring the time‐varying volatility of the return distribution) with the EVT to model the tail distribution of the SWARCH processed residuals. The model is compared with unconditional EVT and conditional EVT‐GARCH models to estimate the extreme losses in three leading stock indices: S&P 500 Index, Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprise Index. The study found that the EVT‐SWARCH model outperformed both the GARCH and SWARCH models in capturing the non‐normality and in providing accurate value‐at‐risk forecasts in the in‐sample and out‐sample tests. The EVTSWARCH model, which exhibits the features of measuring the volatility of a heteroscedastic financial return series and coping with the non‐normality owing to structural changes, can be an alternative measure of the tail risk. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:155–181, 2008     

The Effects of Attributes on the Repeat Sales Pattern of Residential Property in Hong Kong

There has been copious research work on the development of house price models and the construction of house price indices. However, results in some studies revealed that the accuracy of such indices could be subject to selection bias when using only information from a sample of sold properties to estimate value movements for the entire housing stock. In particular, estimated house price appreciation is usually systematically higher among properties that change hands more frequently. It therefore suggests that the determination of important factors affecting the transaction frequency or intensity of a housing unit should be a more fundamental research question. This paper examines the possible factors that determine the popularity of residential unit by means of a repeated sales pattern. The Poisson regression model and event history analysis techniques are employed to assess the effect of attributes on transaction frequency and intensity. The event history analyses technique can take account of transaction-specific as well as time-dependent covariates, and therefore is recommended for analyzing repeated sales data in a real estate market. All transaction records during the period 1993–2000 from the Land Registry of one of the most popular residential estates in Hong Kong were used to illustrate the method. Unlike a response to favorable transaction price, good quality units do not necessarily inherently display a high transaction frequency. Rather, units of average quality are more likely to be transactionally active.     

Cointegration and causal relationships among steel prices of Mainland China, Taiwan, and USA in the presence of multiple structural changes

Variation in the price of steel is an important factor to take into consideration when discussing cost control and management decisions in the construction industry. We employ various conventional and advanced econometrics methods to examine the interrelationships of steel prices in three related markets during the time period June 2002 to May 2010: Mainland China (CH), Taiwan (TW), and the United States (US). We adopt the Gregory and Hansen (GH) test and regime-switching (RS) model for cointegration, both of which accommodate endogenous structural break(s), to produce a more accurate analysis of a period in the presence of structural change(s). The empirical result of the RS cointegration test with respect to multiple structural breaks suggests a long-run equilibrium relationship among the three variables considered. This finding differs from the result of the GH test but confirms the result of the conventional Johansen test. Furthermore, the results of the Granger causality test indicate that both CH and US steel prices have great influence on the TW steel price; the Taiwanese steel market is closely linked with China and US steel markets in the long run.     

Do Traditional Chinese Cultural Values Nourish a Market for Pirated CDs?

On one hand, Chinese consumers are well known for conspicuous consumption and the adoption of luxury products and named brands. On the other hand, they also have a bad reputation for buying counterfeit products. Their simultaneous preferences for two contrasting types of product present a paradox that has not been addressed in the literature. This study attempts to present an explanation of this paradox by examining the effects of traditional Chinese cultural values and consumer values on consumers’ deontological judgment of pirated CDs and the amount of social benefits they perceive they gain from them. We interviewed 300 Hong Kong Chinese consumers, and found that face consciousness increased materialism and risk aversion, thereby producing a favorable deontological judgment of pirated CDs. Face consciousness also has a direct effect on the amount of social benefits perceived in pirated CDs. Both favorable deontological judgment and perceived social benefits contributed to a strong intention to buy pirated CDs. The results are discussed in a cultural perspective.     

Health and well-being through T‘ai Chi: perceptions of older adults in Hong Kong

This study explored the meaning, associated values and benefits of T'ai Chi practice as perceived by older adults in Hong Kong. The relationship between practice and quality of life was also examined. Four focus groups with a total of 18 participants (three of whom have physical disabilities) were conducted. Categories and themes within the data were identified using content analysis. The findings indicated that T'ai Chi is chosen by the elderly participants for its gentle and soft movements. The benefits they describe include lifestyle issues as well as physical, psychological, and social aspects. The Hong Kong participants appeared unfamiliar with the term and concept of ‘quality of life’ but once explained, they were able to point out that their improvements in physical and mental health through the practice of T'ai Chi are related to their level of quality of life. The findings from the literature and this study support the belief that the practice of T'ai Chi has multiple benefits to practitioners that are not only physical in nature. It is recommended as a strategy to promote successful aging.     

The impact of sovereign risk on bond duration: Evidence from Asian sovereign bond markets

This paper examines the effect of sovereign risk on bond duration. We compare the sovereign risk-adjusted duration for U.S. dollar-denominated Asian sovereign bonds with their Macaulay duration for both investment grade bonds and speculative grade bonds. We find that the sovereign risk-adjusted duration is significantly shorter than its Macaulay counterpart for all bonds, regardless of their bond rating and their maturity. Further, the “shortening” effect of sovereign risk on duration gets stronger as bond rating deteriorates and in recessionary conditions. Our findings provide strong support for the importance of adjusting for sovereign risk when bond portfolio managers apply the popular duration measure to hedge interest rate risk.     

Utilization of family-friendly policies in Hong Kong

Employees in Hong Kong, like those in many other industrialized societies, face the competing demands of work and family. Long working hours and the associated problem of work–family conflict is a serious problem for the workforce. Although a number of family-friendly policies, such as the five-day working week, paternal leave and so on, have been introduced, they are not necessarily used to their fullest extent. This paper examines the utilization of family-friendly incentives using a telephone survey of 661 employees in Hong Kong with access to such measures. Its major strength is the use of a well-established model of health care utilization, the Andersen model, to conceptualize the factors associated with the uptake of family-friendly policies. The results indicate that the Andersen model works very well in this context, and further demonstrate that access to family-friendly policies in Hong Kong is not equitable. The study makes a number of significant contributions to the literature on work–life balance and the uptake of supportive measures, and shows that enabling (such as perceived effectiveness) rather than need factors explain most of the variance in such use.