众创空间类型如何塑造创业服务行为？基于制度逻辑视角的分析

文章基于制度逻辑视角,以浙江省746家众创空间为样本,分析了政府、高校、民营企业三类主体设立的众创空间和创业服务行为选择的关系。研究发现：（1）制度逻辑对众创空间的创业服务行为选择具有塑造作用,持有行政逻辑的政府型众创空间会将时间更多的分配给办公场所服务,而持有专业逻辑的高校型和持有公司逻辑的民企型众创空间,则分别会将时间更多的分配给培训咨询服务和投融资服务。上述发现在替换了其它两种因变量测量指标后依然成立。（2）国家级认证会使民企型众创空间显著减少在投融资服务上的时间分配比重,而显著增加在办公场所服务和培训咨询服务上的时间分配比重,这种调节效应在另外两类众创空间中并不显著,在替换了省级认证后结果依然成立。这表明,相较于公司逻辑,政府逻辑和专业逻辑更具稳定性,更不易受高阶制度因素的影响和干扰。文章拓展了制度逻辑和众创空间创业服务行为关系的理论认识,为创业者的众创空间入驻决策以及政府针对众创空间的政策制定提供了实践启示。     

Entrepreneur’s creativity and firm-level innovation performance: bricolage as a mediator

Prior literature focuses on the direct influence of entrepreneur’s creativity on firm-level innovation performance, but it ignores the intermediate mechanism of how. This study examines the role of bricolage in mediating the relationship between entrepreneur’s creativity and innovation performance. We propose that in SMEs, entrepreneur’s creativity can facilitate bricolage, which in turn influences innovation performance. Furthermore, the extent to which entrepreneur’s creativity can influence bricolage depends on firm age. Survey data from 249 SMEs indicate that bricolage functions as a mediator in the relationship between entrepreneur’s creativity and innovation performance. Entrepreneur’s creativity has a stronger effect on bricolage for young firms than for old firms.     

基于社区参与的乡村全域旅游开发实证研究——以南昌南矶乡为例

[目的]全域旅游发展理念的提出进一步丰富和提升了社区参与旅游发展的内涵,文章从全域旅游视角研究社区参与式乡村旅游的开发模式,以期为乡村全域旅游的发展提供参考与借鉴。[方法]通过实地考察和资料查阅法,了解南矶旅游开发及社区参与的现状,结合实证分析法,构建基于社区参与的南矶乡村全域旅游开发模式。[结果](1)目前南矶乡村旅游尚处于发展初期,当地居民对参与旅游发展的意愿比较强烈,但参与的水平与能力都较低,湿地资源作为当地社区福祉的根本同时也是主要的旅游吸引物,当地旅游开发应将社区作为核心利益群体;(2)提出政府、保护区、旅游发展协会、旅游企业和当地社区“五位一体”的社区参与式乡村全域旅游开发模式,并从旅游功能分区、旅游开发经营、产品开发、收益分配和环境保护等5个方面重点论述了该模式的实施途径,以形成以股份合作制为主、社区居民自发旅游和乡村旅游创客等多种旅游开发经营形式共同发展的格局,推出融湿地生态旅游和乡村旅游的产品体系。[结论]该文所构建的乡村全域旅游开发模式将社区参与作为一个实质性要素,强调区域资源有机整合、产业融合发展和社会共建共享,并兼顾旅游开发和生态保护,这将有利于全方位盘活社区资源和带动当地居民就业增收,实现旅游业与社区共生发展,因此这种开发模式比较适合于那些经济基础比较薄弱而旅游业尚处于发展初期且位于自然保护区及其周边的乡村地区进行旅游发展。     

基于过程挖掘的物流运作风险发现研究

为了探究物流运作过程中存在的风险,提高物流运作效率,增强物流企业管理能力,以真实的事件日志为基础,运用过程挖掘方法发现物流企业运作过程中的风险。首先以Petri网理论为基础,构建了理想的工作模型,然后使用过程挖掘工具ProM,运用模糊挖掘算法和启发式挖掘算法,对物流运作过程中产生的真实事件日志进行挖掘,获得实际的客观视图,最后利用ProM工具的一致性检查发现物流运作过程中的异常行为模式,并分析物流运作过程中的偏差以及存在的风险。结果表明,过程挖掘能客观地揭示事件日志中活动之间的依赖关系,并发现物流企业自身运作过程中的偏差和风险。研究结果为全面、系统地分析物流企业潜在风险提供了新思路,有助于物流企业发现运作过程中的问题,对物流企业优化运作过程和提高管理效率具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Bubbles for Fama

We evaluate Eugene F. Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns (1926?2014) and international sector returns (1985?2014), we present four findings (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash but not of a further price boom; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up, help forecast an eventual crash; and (4) these attributes also help forecast future returns. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.     

公共交通地方立法探析

一、我国公共交通立法发展基本情况2009年底,交通运输部研究起草了《城市公共交通条例》(送审稿),并报送国务院法制办。此后,国务院法制办联合交通运输部进行了多轮完善。直至2018年8月,司法部印发了《城市公共交通管理条例(征求意见稿)》(以下简称《征求意见稿》),在行业内征求意见。2019年5月,司法部就《征求意见稿》向全社会广泛征求意见。至此,《城市公共交通管理条例》的出台进入倒计时。     

不完备信息系统辐射源威胁等级判定

针对不完备信息系统条件下的辐射源威胁等级判定问题，提出了一种基于改进容差关系粗糙集（ITR-RS）的不完备信息系统辐射源威胁等级判定方法。该方法将粗糙集中的不完备信息系统理论引入辐射源威胁等级判定中，并构建一套完备的决策规则提取模型。此外，利用辨识矩阵实现对属性的约简，在降低系统所需处理数据量的同时，提高了算法的实时性；在容差关系粗糙集的基础上，提出一种改进的容差关系，在属性主、客权重相结合的基础上引入阈值来划分加权阈值容差类，得到更为合理、准确的决策规则。仿真试验及分析表明，与经典RS算法相比，所提算法的威胁等级判定正确率提高了23%，可用于信息系统不完备条件下的辐射源威胁等级判定。     

Nonparametric fixed effects model for panel data with locally stationary regressors

We develop methods for inference in nonparametric time-varying fixed effects panel data models that allow for locally stationary regressors and for the time series length $T$ and cross-section size $N$ both being large. We first develop a pooled nonparametric profile least squares dummy variable approach to estimate the nonparametric function, and establish the optimal convergence rate and asymptotic normality of the resultant estimator. We then propose a test statistic to check whether the bivariate nonparametric function is time-varying or the time effect is separable, and derive the asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic. We present several simulated examples and two real data analyses to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods.     

Customer Satisfaction with E-Retailers: The Role of Product Type in the Relative Importance of Attributes

It is of strategic importance for e-retailers to allocate their resources to various service attributes according to their relative importance. How does one determine the relative importance of different service attributes? Does the relative importance of different service attributes remain the same across different product categories? These questions must be addressed by researchers and e-retailers. Since customer ratings for service attributes are highly correlated, modeling methods other than traditional regression models should be used to analyze the relative importance of service attributes to overall customer satisfaction. As such, this article utilizes neural networks in order to study the relative importance of e-retailer service attributes. Importantly, this article shows that the relative importance of e-retailer service attributes varies across different product categories (i.e., convenience, shopping, and specialty goods).