Why is timing perverse?

The existence of negative market timing, even for passive portfolios, poses a relevant puzzle when assessing portfolio management. In this paper, we develop a simple theoretical model so as to explain why such perverse market timing might occur and why those stocks with the lowest beta in upward markets exhibit pronounced negative timing. Our explanation is based on the existence of higher correlations of stocks in down markets than in up markets. We find that changes in beta, which drives timing, has four components; however, just two of these, mean covariance shift and covariances dispersion map, serve to explain the asymmetric behavior across stocks. We find that a high percentage of the negative market timing ability identified for mutual funds in the literature could be explained by this bias.     

On causality in the size-efficiency relationship: the effect of investor cash flows on the mutual fund industry

One of the perceived advantages in mutual fund management is the presence of economies of scale resulting from fund size. This article analyses the impact of mutual fund cash flows on the relation between size and performance, demonstrating that performance determines asymmetric variations in fund assets, particularly in mutual equity funds. Therefore, the more efficient funds generate broad enough cash flow entry that increases the relative size of the fund, leading to an implicit and positive relation between size and performance. So, if the average size over the period sample is used as a measure of size, such a relation would be biased. When the initial size is used, this bias is avoided and, in general, an insignificant relation is found between size and performance. These results are controlled by mutual fund costs using gross returns to estimate performance. The evidence is robust, and shows only weak evidence of a negative relation between size and performance for the balanced funds that is driven by a low positive relation between costs and size; precisely, the contrary that is expected from the hypothesis of the presence of economies of scale.     

Looking for sustainable development: Socially responsible mutual funds and the low-carbon economy

Sustainable investment responds to demands for carbon and climate-neutral societies. To address the urgency around climate change and provide investors with more qualified information, Morningstar has developed the Low Carbon Designation (LCD) to indicate that the companies held in a portfolio are in general alignment with the transition to a low-carbon economy. The designation is given to portfolios that have low carbon risk and fossil fuel exposure scores. The present study builds on the LCD by examining the relationship between these scores and financial performance. With this aim, we analyze 3920 socially responsible mutual funds from across the world. Results show differences in financial performance according to scores and investment areas. We find evidence that funds considered to have higher levels of sustainability achieved better performance than funds with higher exposure to companies involved in carbon and fossil fuel industries. We provide insights on the informativeness of these new scores with a focus on climate change and their relevance in helping investors to identify climate-aware funds. This study highlights the importance of introducing strategies to develop green finance; the analysis confirms that sustainability improves performance. Finally, the LCD indicator is shown to be relevant for making fairer comparisons among socially responsible funds and, ultimately, for developing low-carbon economies.     

Passive timing effect in portfolio management

The primary objective of the present study is to analyse the extent of the passive timing effect in portfolio management. This effect is produced when a portfolio which is not managed actively shows signs of instability in its level of systematic risk. By contrast, market timing involves active management of the portfolio and therefore changes to the level of systematic risk in order to anticipate market movements in an appropriate manner. This study proposes a dynamic beta model which incorporates the effect of passive timing attributable to the accumulated evolution of weightings for the assets that make up the portfolio. The results demonstrate the importance of this effect when applying performance and market timing measures in order to evaluate portfolio results, such as those of mutual funds.     

Investing in mutual funds: the determinants of implied and actual net cash flows

Estimating the fund investors’ demand plays an important role in the mutual fund management. In this line, mutual fund demand can be measured as the total net cash flows experienced by the fund during a period. Due to a lack of the data for inflows and outflows in some countries and databases, many authors estimate the net cash flows using fund size and return information. This rough measure, although being a good approximation, implicitly assumes an error in its calculation. For a sample of 2985 US open-end funds, we find evidence that estimating this implied fund flows, the error generated is higher for smaller funds, funds with higher returns, and for those experiencing higher levels of inflows or outflows. This lack of precision leads to a distortion in the estimation of the effect of some determinants on the mutual fund demand, especially when longer periods are considered when constructing the net cash flows.     

Measuring Investors’ Socially Responsible Preferences in Mutual Funds

The aim of this study is to analyze investor behavior towards socially responsible mutual funds. The analysis is based on an experimental study where a sample of individuals takes investment decisions under different parameters of information about the investment alternatives and expected returns. In the experiment, each participant decides how to distribute an investment budget between two funds, returns on which are uncertain and change over time. Two treatments are conducted, each providing a different degree of information on the socially responsible (SR) character of one of the two investment alternatives. The results obtained suggest that although individuals’ criteria for investment are essentially guided by returns and diversification, participants invest significantly more in a fund when they are explicitly informed about its SR nature. In particular, participants who declare being concerned about SR actually invest significantly more in the SR alternative. Furthermore, the level of SR faithfulness among a small group of investors is such that they invest the main share of their budget in the SR fund, even when the return differential is highly unfavorable. Providing clear information about the SR characteristics of an investment is crucial to help investors express their preferences.     

Determinants of pension plan fees in Spain

Pension plans and funds represent a substantial part of the welfare systems in both Europe and Spain. One of the most important factors in the choice of a plan or fund is the performance it obtains. In view of the influence that fees have on performance, the objective of this study is to analyse the variables that determine the management and custodial fees of individual pension plans. The Spanish market for pension plans and funds sets legal caps on these fees, and at the same time the majority of them are commercialized and managed by financial institutions, which can in turn generate a conflict of interests. In this article, we estimate models with censured variables and our findings show how the average investment per plan, the legal status and the size of the management company to which the plan belongs, and the style of the plan are all relevant determinants of the management fee. In turn, the custodial fee is determined by the legal status of the custodial company, the size, the return and the type of plan.