Spatial statistical modelling of insurance risk: a spatial epidemiological approach to car insurance

Spatial models, such as the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model, have long been used in epidemiology and disease mapping. A common research question in these subjects is modelling the number of disease events per region; here the BYM models provides a holistic framework for both covariates and dependencies between regions. We use these tools to assess the relative insurance risk associated with the policyholders geographical location. A Bayesian modelling approach is presented and an elastic net is used to reduce the large number of possible geographic covariates. The final inference is performed using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. The model is applied to car insurance data from If P&C Insurance together with spatially referenced covariate data of high resolution, provided by Insightone. The entire analysis is performed using freely available R-packages. Including spatial dependence when modelling the number of claims significantly improves on the result obtained using ordinary generalised linear models. However, the support for adding a spatial component to the model for claims cost is weaker.     

Crisis,internal governance mechanisms and pension fund performance: Evidence from Poland

This study provides new insight on the impact of supervisory board structure as an internal governance mechanism on privately defined contribution pension fund performance in Poland. Using a hand-collected data set, we find evidence that the chairman, as a motivated insider, plays an important role in determining fund performance. The results also show, although with weaker evidence, that outsiders may positively impact fund performance. During the 2007–2008 crisis, however, the insider professional knowledge outweighed the benefits of having motivated outsiders on the supervisory board. Consequently, the results show that both the composition of the supervisory board and the motivation and knowledge of its members are important in explaining pension fund performance. We also find that other governance factors have no impact on fund performance. The results are a relevant contribution to the current regulatory debate on reforms of the pension fund industry in Poland, arguing that modifying the supervisory board structure and electing outsiders with professional knowledge may significantly improve its performance.     

Das Zeitmoment in der Wertlehre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Stock Externality vs. Symbiosis in a Forest-Air System

Stock externalities and ecological interaction have similar equilibrium effects. The influence on the dynamics of an ecosystem, however, is quite different. The different effects are laid out theoretically in the context of a forest-air model. We compare a centralized, welfare-maximizing policy and decentralized policies. Finally, we numerically simulate the dynamic differences between stock externalities and ecological interaction.     

Wettbewerbsordnung und Landwirtschaft

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Accounting for the effect of health on cross-state income inequality in India

We perform development accounting in accordance with [Weil, 2005] and [Weil, 2007] in a cross-state analysis of India. Results of similar magnitude are found, demonstrating that health can account for 1% to 18% of income differences depending on the health measure.