Pricing growth-indexed bonds

Growth-indexed bonds have been suggested as a way of reducing the procyclicality of emerging-market countries’ fiscal policies and the likelihood of costly debt crises. Investor attitude surveys suggest that pricing difficulties are seen as a considerable obstacle. In an effort to reduce such concerns, this article presents a simple way of pricing growth-indexed bonds. As a pleasant by-product, the analysis tracks the quantitative implications of an increase in the share of growth-indexed bonds in total debt, measuring the ensuing decline in the probability of default and the reduction in the spreads at which standard bonds can be issued.  

关于宏观经济政策的若干反思

大稳健时期让宏观经济学家和政府决策者误以为大家已熟练掌握了宏观经济政策运用，本次危机显然对此观点提出了挑战。为此，国际货币基金组织（IMF）专家对危机前的宏观经济政策进行了重视审视，分析了主要共识，指出其中存在的失误，以及哪些危机前的框架原则当前仍能适用，并尝试建立新的宏观经济政策框架。建议应该对通货膨胀目标进行重视审视，协调运用货币政策和监管政策，统一通货膨胀目标制与汇率政策，更广泛地提供流动性，注意积蓄财政政策空间，设计更好的财政自动稳定机制。  

Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces us to question that assessment. In this paper, we review the main elements of the precrisis consensus, identify where we were wrong and what tenets of the precrisis framework still hold, and take a tentative first pass at the contours of a new macroeconomic policy framework.