Effects of Economic Convergence on Stock Market Returns in Major EMU Member Countries

This study updates and extends existing literature by investigating the effects of economic convergence among major European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) member countries on stock market returns in each respective nation. Main findings include: (1) long-term stability in the EMU appears to be attainable, but further integration of product and factor markets is needed to reinforce convergence of real sectors; (2) the UK can be considered a quasi EMU participant due to convergence of its key economic variables with those of formal EMU members; and (3) economic convergence appears to be an important contributing factor to returns from stock markets in the included EMU countries except Germany.     

Determinants of Equity Style

This paper provides a unifying empirical treatment of propositions explaining equity style cycles with a four-factor model that combines risk factors central to style theory. Tests on style autocorrelations and performance over the period January 1979–December 2004 generally affirm theoretical expectations. We employ cointegration methodology to analyze the stationarity of style covariances and dissect the diversification contributions of styles. We document style diversification gains but discover an asymmetry: value gains are derived from small company stocks while growth benefits come from large stocks. The asymmetry implies portfolios comprised of independent large growth and small value styles since the twin small growth and large value styles are cointegrated and redundant diversifiers. Performance tests show superior performance by the independent styles over the sample period, two equal intertemporal periods, and an extended 5-year period that directly contradicts a risk based explanation. The influence of institutional traders on style trends is also documented. Our findings affirm the predictions of behavioral models and provide more empirical evidence of superior performance unrelated to risk or fundamentals.

Economic interdependence and common stochastic trends: A comparative analysis between EMU and non-EMU stock markets

Whether economic interdependence among countries is a contributing factor to cointegration and common stochastic trends in international stock markets is indiscernible due to contradictory results from prior empirical work. This study aims to add clarity to this issue through a more distinct grouping of countries and methodological enhancements. A comparative analysis of cointegration is conducted between stock market price indices of major Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and non-EMU countries. The conventional Johansen methodology is augmented with several diagnostic techniques (that have not been all inclusive in previous studies) to ensure the robustness of test results. Major findings pertinent to investors and policymakers are that economic interdependence appears to be the important contributing factor and that the U.S. stock market does not exert influences on long-run performances of other included stock markets. Furthermore, while the UK is not an EMU member, it may be viewed as a quasi EMU participant due to its stock market being cointegrated with and yet one of the common stochastic trends (besides those of Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands) within the EMU stock markets under investigation.     

Policy coordination and risk premium in foreign exchange markets for major EU currencies

This study investigates cointegration, policy coordination and the risk premium in foreign exchange markets for major EU currencies since the inception of the EMU in January 1999. The results show that only the krone and the pound are cointegrated with the euro. Tests of inflation convergence and analyses of reduced-form and structural VARs indicate that the cointegration evidence reflects the relatively stronger degree of monetary policy coordination and at least the de facto fixed exchange rate regime of Denmark and the U.K. with the EMU. Additionally, cointegration of spot exchange rates can be considered one of the factors that represent the time-varying risk premium due to its explanatory power for the return to forward speculation.     

iShares and the US Market Risk Exposure

Abstract:  Previous researchers find that country iShares are directly and strongly exposed to US market risk in addition to home country market risk. This finding contradicts the fact that by design these iShares should behave as their underlying market indices behave. With monthly data and the appropriate orthogonalization choice, we find that direct US market risk exposure is weaker, less significant and less prevalent than previously suggested. Further tests indicate that in fact a strong majority of country iShares do not behave significantly differently from their underlying market indices. Hence, they are not less effective as diversification instruments to US investors than direct investments in the foreign markets as represented by their underlying market indices.     

Optimization,cointegration and diversification gains from international portfolios: an out-of-sample analysis

This study investigates comparative performance of iShares and their underlying market indices in a portfolio context from the perspective of U.S. investors. Two aspects are important. First, portfolios based on standard optimization procedures and a portfolio based on cointegration procedures are created and out-of-sample performance is compared. The portfolio utilizing cointegration inputs shows superior out-of-sample performance. Second, portfolio performance measurement is extended to different holding periods. The findings do not differ.     

What explains the investment growth anomaly?

We examine if an existing asset pricing model in an unconditional or conditional setting can explain the investment growth anomaly, as represented by higher returns on stocks of the firms with lower growth in capital expenditures. Our results indicate that the conditional Fama–French 3-factor model that allows factor loadings to be time-varying and further linked to firm-level characteristics and the business cycle can explain the anomaly.     

An analysis of the opening mechanisms of Exchange Traded Fund markets

We examine the opening of Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) markets in a multimarket trading environment. We find that the opening trades on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) are the most costly. This result is consistent with the market power hypothesis which suggests that the specialists use their informational advantage about the order imbalance at the open or take advantage of the inelastic demand at the open by imposing wider spreads. We also find that the transparent opening mechanisms of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Electronic Communication Networks (ECNs) enable them to facilitate greater price discovery at the opening and to have more efficient opening prices. This result implies that the transparency effect dominates the market power effect. Further, we find that peripheral markets do not passively free ride on information revealed through the AMEX because their opening trades contribute significantly to the price discovery process.