WHAT IT TAKES TO SOLVE THE U.S. GOVERNMENT DEFICIT PROBLEM

This paper uses a structural multi‐country macroeconometric model to estimate the size of the decrease in transfer payments (or tax expenditures) needed to stabilize the U.S. government debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. It takes into account endogenous effects of changes in fiscal policy on the economy and in turn the effect of changes in the economy on the deficit. A base run is first obtained for the 2013:1–2022:4 period in which there are no major changes in U.S. fiscal policy. This results in an ever increasing debt/GDP ratio. Then transfer payments are decreased by an amount sufficient to stabilize the long‐run debt/GDP ratio. The results show that transfer payments need to be decreased by 2% of GDP from the base run, which over the 10 years is $3.2 trillion in 2005 dollars and $4.8 trillion in current dollars. The real output loss is 1.1% of baseline GDP. Monetary policy helps keep the loss down, but it is not powerful enough in the model to eliminate all of the loss. The estimates are robust to a base run with less inflation and to one with less expansion. (JEL E17)     

By What Criteria Do We Evaluate Accounting? Some Thoughts on Economic Welfare and the Archival Literature

The economic role of an accounting regime is to increase welfare through its effects—in conjunction with complementary institutions—on firm and household behavior. I review three major streams of the archival literature (real effects; price effects, including value relevance; and costly contracting), in terms of what they can and cannot reveal as proxies for welfare effects. One conclusion is that the partial correlations and average effects that predominate in this literature have provided valuable insights into the role of accounting in the economy, but provide limited and misleading proxies for welfare effects. A major concern is that teachers, students, and researchers—indeed, regulators and standard setters—raised on this literature could lose sight of, and underestimate, the fundamental contribution of accounting to aggregate welfare.     

Aggregate Earnings and Asset Prices

A principal-components analysis demonstrates that common earnings factors explain a substantial portion of firm-level earnings variation, implying earnings shocks have substantial systematic components and are not almost fully diversifiable as prior literature has concluded. Furthermore, the principal components of earnings and returns are highly correlated, implying aggregate earnings risks and return risks are related. In contrast to previous studies, the correlation we report between the systematic components of earnings and returns is stable over time. We also show that the earnings factors are priced, in the sense that the sensitivities of securities' returns to the earnings factors explain a significant portion of the cross-sectional variation in returns, even controlling for return risk. This suggests earnings performance is an underlying source of priced risk. Our evidence that the information sets of returns and earnings are jointly determined implies cash flow risk and return risk are not fully separable, and raises the possibility that it is the common variation of earnings and returns that is priced.     

Book Reviews

Technological Collaboration in Industry; strutegy, policy and internationalization in innovation
Corporate Venturing: Creating New Businesses within the Firm
Handbook of Innovation Management
Technology and enterprise in a historical perspective
Intellectual Property for Engineers
The Ernst & Young Business Plan Guide
crnagement as a New Technology
Mass Customization: The New Frontier in Business Competition     

Connecting Time and Space: The Significance of Transformations in Women's Work in the City

Growing numbers of women with children living in western cities are entering the labour market, raising new questions about changes in the allocation of the tasks of social reproduction between household members and others and about the effects of the increasing time women now spend in the workplace. As Manuel Castells noted over 25 years ago, women's unpaid labour has long been essential, not only in the domestic arena, but also in patching together facilities separated in space. The spatial layout of cities, with its specialized and segregated land‐uses, only works, he argued, if women's unpaid labour is available to connect urban locations. But many women now spend many more hours in the labour market, replacing their former domestic labour with a range of commodified goods and services as well as by help from a range of related or unrelated others, sometimes but not always remunerated and/or by state‐provided or supported services. This article examines the consequences of the growth of women's employment in Britain and the concomitant decline of the old breadwinner family, the growth of workfare policies that assume all individuals are available for waged work and the rise of commodified caring. The arguments are illustrated by empirical examples from interviews undertaken with middle‐class mothers in waged work in London and Manchester in the UK.     

THE IMPACT OF INTRA HOUSEHOLD BALANCE OF POWER ON EXPENDITURE PATTERN: THE AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE*

The collective approach to household behaviour models the household utility function as the weighted average of the utilities of the individual members of the household. These weights, which measure the relative bargaining power of males and females within the household, are generally regarded as fixed and exogenous. The paper extends the collective approach and estimates a model where the weights are endogenously determined. The novelty of the analysis lies in the simultaneous equations estimation of the bargaining power and the budget share equation that allow for the endogeneity of the power variable in the examination of its impact on the budget share of the various items. The estimation is conducted using data from the 1998–99 Australian Household Expenditure Survey data set. The relative bargaining power of males and females have statistically significant effects on household expenditure patterns. The analysis reveals some interesting non‐monotonic relationships between relative power and budget shares that vary a great deal between commodities.