WHAT DETERMINANTS AFFECT THE CAPITAL STRUCTURE OF CONSUMER CO‐OPERATIVES? THE CASE OF iCOOP KOREA

The capital structure of co‐operatives can differ from that of IOB (Investor‐Owned Businesses) since the two organizations differ in their aims, governance structures and decision‐making principles. This paper examines whether the determinants verified in IOB affect the leverage ratio of consumer co‐operatives. Consumer co‐operatives in South Korea have been rapidly growing during the last decade. There are two leading theories in finance that explain capital structure: the trade‐off and pecking order theories. Focusing on consumer co‐operatives in South Korea, the paper aims to analyze empirically what determinants have effect on the capital structure of consumer co‐operatives and which of the two theories is more plausible. This study reveals that profitability and firm size have a significantly negative effect on leverage while tangibility and growth have a significantly positive effect on it. In conclusion, it seems that neither of the theories above perfectly accounts for the capital structure of consumer co‐operatives because of the differences in governance characteristics between consumer co‐operatives and IOB as well as in the costs of bankruptcy, agency, informational asymmetry and securities issuance.     

Reconsidering the Relationship between Inflation and Relative Price Variability

It has long been popularly believed that the relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) is positive and stable. Using disaggregated CPI data for the United States and Japan, however, this study finds that the relationship is neither linear nor stable over time. The overall relationship is approximately U‐shaped around a nonzero threshold inflation rate. RPV therefore changes not with the inflation rate per se, but with the deviation of inflation from the threshold inflation rate. More importantly, the relationship is by no means stable over time but instead varies significantly in a way that coincides with regime changes of inflation or monetary policy. The relationship was positive during the period of high inflation of the 1970s and the early 1980s, as has been documented by a number of previous studies, whereas it takes a U‐shape profile during the Great Moderation. The results are robust to the use of core inflation, which excludes the traditionally volatile prices of food and energy. This paper then presents a modified version of the Calvo‐type sticky price model to describe the observed empirical regularities. Simulation experiments show that the modified Calvo model fits the data well, and that the underlying relationship hinges upon the degree of price rigidity, which is systematically related to inflation regime. For countries and periods with low inflation rates, the relationship takes a U‐shape as price adjustment is more sticky. In a high‐inflation environment, when price setting becomes more flexible, the U‐shaped profile vanishes.     

Reinforcement Learning and Savings Behavior

We show that individual investors over‐extrapolate from their personal experience when making savings decisions. Investors who experience particularly rewarding outcomes from 401(k) saving—a high average and/or low variance return—increase their 401(k) savings rate more than investors who have less rewarding experiences. This finding is not driven by aggregate time‐series shocks, income effects, rational learning about investing skill, investor fixed effects, or time‐varying investor‐level heterogeneity that is correlated with portfolio allocations to stock, bond, and cash asset classes. We discuss implications for the equity premium puzzle and interventions aimed at improving household financial outcomes.     

THE SOURCES OF THE DECLINE IN U.S. OUTPUT VOLATILITY

In this paper, we investigate the sources of the decline in U.S. output volatility. We estimate structural vector autoregression models before and after the structural break date of the first quarter of 1984. We find that the magnitude of both supply and demand shocks in the pre-1984 period is greater than that in the post-1984 period. We also find that the relative importance of the demand shocks in the post-1984 has decreased drastically compared to the pre-1984 period. Further counterfactual analyses show that good luck, good policies, and better business practices might have played a role in reducing U.S. output volatility. ( JEL E30, E60, C32)     

Market Valuation of Tax-Timing Options: Evidence from Capital Gains Distributions

We examine a distribution that is taxed as a capital gain rather than as a dividend. Since the distribution induces a realized capital gain while the price change is an unrealized gain, ex‐day return behavior provides evidence of the value of tax‐timing capital gains. We show that investors are compensated 7¢ in unrealized gains for each dollar of realized capital gains, that is, $1 of realized capital gains is equivalent to 93¢ of unrealized gains. An investor with a tax rate on realized gains of 15% has an effective tax rate on unrealized capital gains of 8.6%.     

Differences in the use of bank and retail credit cards in the U.S.A.

Data from the 1989 Survey of Consumer Finances¹ were analysed to find factors related to credit card use in U.S. households. Factors associated with the probability of using only retail cards were being a female-headed household, being older and being in a blue collar occupation. The use of bank cards only was associated with male heads of households, renting and a negative attitude toward credit. The use of both retail and bank cards was associated with a positive attitude toward credit, being in a professional or managerial occupation and home ownership. The results provide insight into credit card use and should help target educational efforts to those most likely to experience debt problems related to extensive use of credit cards.     

A COMPARISON OF CONDITIONAL AND UNCONDITIONAL APPROACHES IN VALUE‐AT‐RISK ESTIMATION*

In this paper, we attempt to find the most important factor causing the differences in the performance of Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) estimation by comparing the performances of conditional and unconditional approaches. For each approach, we use various methods and models with different degrees of flexibility in their distributions including S_U‐normal distribution, which is one of the most flexible distribution functions. Our empirical results underscore the importance of the flexibility‐of‐distribution function in VaR estimation models. Even though it seems to be unclear which approach is better between conditional and unconditional approaches, it seems to be clear that the more flexible distribution we use, the better the performance, regardless of which approach we use.     

PRICE AND QUANTITY COMPETITION IN A UNIONISED MIXED DUOPOLY: THE CASES OF SUBSTITUTES AND COMPLEMENTS*

We investigate a differentiated mixed duopoly in which private and public firms can choose to strategically set prices or quantities when unions are present. For the case of a unionised mixed duopoly, there exists a dominant strategy only for the public firm that chooses Bertrand competition irrespective of whether the goods are substitutes or complements; there is no dominant strategy for a private firm. Thus, we show that regardless of the nature of goods, social welfare under Bertrand competition is always determined in equilibrium, wherein Bertrand competition entails higher social welfare than Cournot competition. Moreover, our main results hold irrespective of the nature of goods, with the exception that when a sufficiently large parameter of complements is employed, the ranking of a private firm's profit is not reversed, which is in contrast to the standard findings.