Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability

Prior literature finds that information is reflected in option markets before stock markets, but no study has explored whether option volume soon after market open has predictive power for intraday stock returns. Using novel intraday signed option-to-stock volume data, we find that a composite option trading score (OTS) in the first 30 min of market open predicts stock returns during the rest of the trading day. Such return predictability is greater for smaller stocks, stocks with higher idiosyncratic volatility, and stocks with higher bid–ask spreads relative to their options’ bid–ask spreads. Moreover, OTS is a significantly stronger predictor of intraday stock returns after overnight earnings announcements. The evidence suggests that option trading in the 30 min after the opening bell has predictive power for intraday stock returns.     

Policy Determinants of School Outcomes under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from South Africa

In this paper, we assess the determinants of secondary school outcomes in South Africa. We use Bayesian model averaging techniques to account for uncertainty in the set of underlying factors that are chosen among a very large pool of explanatory variables in order to identify the subset of explanatory variables most strongly associated with the dependent variable. Our analysis indicates that the socio‐economic background of pupils, demographic characteristics such as population groups (Black and White), as well as geographical locations account for a significant variation in pupils’ achievement levels. We also find that the most robust policy determinants of pupils’ test scores are the availability of a library at school, the use of IT in the classroom as well as school climate.     

Simplified Jackknife Variance Estimates for Fuzzy Measures of Multidimensional Poverty

In this paper, we present a practical methodology for variance estimation for multi‐dimensional measures of poverty and deprivation of households and individuals, derived from sample surveys with complex designs and fairly large sample sizes. The measures considered are based on fuzzy representation of individuals' propensity to deprivation in monetary and diverse non‐monetary dimensions. We believe this to be the first original contribution for estimating standard errors for such fuzzy poverty measures. The second objective is to describe and numerically illustrate computational procedures and difficulties in producing reliable and robust estimates of sampling error for such complex statistics. We attempt to identify some of these problems and provide solutions in the context of actual situations. A detailed application based on European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data for 19 NUTS2 regions in Spain is provided.     

A Rose by Any Other Name: Are Family Firms Named After Their Founding Families Rewarded More for Their New Product Introductions?

The authors explore the relation between the way different family firms are named, and the shareholder value impact of these firms’ new product introductions. Using an event study of 1,294 product introduction announcements of 107 publicly listed U.S. family firms, the authors find that the presence of the founding family’s name as part of a family firm’s name acts as a valuable firm resource, increasing the abnormal stock returns surrounding the firm’s new product introductions. Superior returns to family-named firms’ new product introductions are partially mediated by these firms’ history of ethical product-related behavior: family-named firms, particularly those with corporate branding, and those wherein a founding family member holds the CEO or chairman position, are more likely to exhibit a history of avoiding such product-related controversies as product safety issues, and deceptive advertising. The authors highlight the managerial and theoretical contributions of this research.     

Education Dashboards for Enhanced Learning: A Singapore Experience

Educators continue to utilize add-ons, extensions, or replacements to traditional Learning Management Systems (LMSs) to supplement capabilities and improve the classroom experience. This work resulted in the design and development of the Education Dashboards for Enhanced Learning (EDEL) template. The EDEL template enables faculty members to create dynamic web spaces called Knowledge Portals (KPortals). A semester-long introduction of KPortals proved to be positive and useful. Students tended to view the KPortal as a “go-to” webspace. The authors hope to refine the template in future studies and examine its usefulness in other countries.     

How many pirates should a software firm tolerate?: An analysis of piracy protection on the diffusion of software

This paper examines the relationship between the rate of software diffusion and piracy. Literature suggests that tolerating some piracy can be justified since it speeds up software diffusion. The question is, how much should be tolerated? Using innovation diffusion models of software adoption by legal buyers and pirates, answers to this question are obtained for the three scenarios of monopoly, multiple generations of software and competitive markets. Results include, for example, that a monopoly should start with minimum protection of its software but well before the product has diffused half way, impose maximum protection and maintain it thereafter. The results provide important strategic guidelines for firms in the software industry for managing piracy.     

National Papers of Interest to Economic Educators

The author argues that while advances in technology may have made long-range and long-term planning less critical, they have not made long-run decisionmaking obsolete.     

Role of Shopping Values and Web Atmospherics in E-Satisfaction and Repurchase Intention

Expected to touch US$55 billion in 2016, the e-commerce market in India presents an unprecedented growth opportunity for retailers. Existing studies have identified factors influencing shoppers’ online behaviour pertaining to the developed economies. Hence, it becomes pertinent to validate these antecedents for the economies like India. The article addresses this gap by examining the role of shopping values and web atmospherics, on e-satisfaction of Indian shoppers. Using multiple regression analysis, it also examines the influence of e-satisfaction on repurchase intention. The findings suggest that effectiveness of information content has the most significant impact on e-satisfaction. Web entertainment, utilitarian values and web informativeness are the other influencing factors. Contrary to the earlier studies, this study didn’t find any influence of hedonic shopping values on shoppers’ satisfaction. Also, e-satisfaction was found to have a positive influence on repurchase intention of e-shoppers. The article suggests select strategies that can be adopted by e-retailers.