Unstable Inflation Targets

This paper studies long‐run inflation targets and stability in an imperfect information environment. When central banks set an inflation target that is not fully communicated, agents draw inferences about inflation from recent data and remain alert to structural change by forming expectations from a forecasting model that is estimated via discounted least squares. Inflation targets can lead agents' beliefs to depart from rational expectations through two channels. First, implementing a higher inflation target can lead to overshooting. Second, there can be nearly self‐fulfilling inflation, disinflation, or deflation that arises as an endogenous response to shocks. Policy implications for implementing a higher target without deanchoring expectations are discussed.     

CASINOS,HOTELS, AND CRIME

This paper examines the links among casinos, hotels, and crime using Indiana's counties for 1994‐2004. In estimating casinos' impacts, I introduce a measure of casino activity in addition to variables related to the timing of casino opening. I test whether or not the number of hotel rooms affects crime rates. Increased casino activity reduces crime rates except for burglary, where crime rates rise after a lag. Leaving out a measure of casino activity appears to create a serious specification error. Finally, including problem crime data plagued by incomplete reporting affects the estimated impact of casinos on crime. (JEL R11, L83)     

The Power of Voice: Managerial Affective States and Future Firm Performance

We measure managerial affective states during earnings conference calls by analyzing conference call audio files using vocal emotion analysis software. We hypothesize and find that, when managers are scrutinized by analysts during conference calls, positive and negative affects displayed by managers are informative about the firm's financial future. Analysts do not incorporate this information when forecasting near‐term earnings. When making stock recommendation changes, however, analysts incorporate positive but not negative affect. This study presents new evidence that managerial vocal cues contain useful information about a firm's fundamentals, incremental to both quantitative earnings information and qualitative “soft” information conveyed by linguistic content.     

The Relationship between Multiple Choice and Essay Response Questions in Assessing Economics Understanding

Efficiency considerations have led to increased use of multiple-choice questions to assess economics understanding at the secondary and tertiary levels throughout Australia. A multiple-choice test would suffice if multiple-choice and essay questions measure the same dimensions of knowledge, as suggested by least squares estimation of the relationship between these two forms of testing. We show a simultaneous equation bias inherent in least squares estimation of the relationship between these two forms. A two-stage least squares estimation reveals no relationship, implying that these testing forms measure different dimensions of knowledge. Thus, a single form of testing economics knowledge must be avoided.     

Project Labor Agreements' Effect on School Construction Costs in Massachusetts

This paper investigates the impact of Project Labor Agreements (PLAs) on school construction cost in Massachusetts. Although simple models exhibit a large positive effect of PLAs on construction costs, such effects are absent from more completely specified models. Further investigation finds sufficient dissimilarity in schools built with and without PLAs that it is difficult to distinguish the cost effects of PLAs from the cost effects of factors that underlie the use of PLAs.     

中美服务贸易领域拓展及其途径选择

多年来,美国对华巨大贸易逆差使其对中国愈来愈不满,而并不刻意追求贸易顺差的中国也在试图转变经济增长方式,试图摆脱过于依赖出口和外资的不利局面本文分析了中美两国在新的经济切合点--服务贸易上的共同利益,阐述了两国可以率先扩大服务贸易领域及其操作方法.