The Effects of Uncertainty on Market Prices: Evidence from Coaching Changes in the NBA

Abstract:  This study examines the effects of uncertainty on market prices. Specifically, we use the National Basketball Association betting market to examine whether uncertainty resulting from midseason coaching changes affects the ability of bettors to accurately set betting lines. We find that uncertainty amid midseason coaching changes results in less accurate pricing, as evidenced by higher volatility and greater overall inaccuracy in betting lines. We also find that uncertainty regarding the ability of the replacement coach and/or his strategies results in less accurate pricing, again evidenced by higher volatility and greater overall inaccuracy in betting lines.     

美国的保险监管

从18世纪开始,美国对探索保险的监管方向做出不断的努力。本文作者为我们介绍了美国保险监管的发展历程和几次重大的立法与案例对其的影响,以及近期监管政府可能做出的政策选择。作者古奎特·李(L.Lee Colquitt)博士是美国奥本大学胡德夫金融学教授,此文由本刊的美国特约编辑杰姆斯·巴茨(James R.Barth)博士提供。     

A Citation Analysis of Risk, Insurance, and Actuarial Research: 2001 Through 2005

The bibliographies of 17  risk  journals were evaluated to determine the relative influence of these  risk  journals on risk, insurance, and actuarial research published during the years 2001 through 2005. Tables are provided that show the frequency with which each of these journals cites itself and the other sample journals. The journals are ranked, within two groups (risk and insurance group and actuarial group), based on their total influence (total citations including and excluding self-citations) and their per article influence (per article citations including and excluding self-citations). Finally, the most frequently cited articles from each  risk  journal are reported.     

The Status of Social Security and Its Role in Retirement Planning: A Professional Advisor's Perspective

Currently, one of the more salient retirement debates surrounds the future insolvency of the Social Security retirement system. In spite of the important role that financial planning professionals play in the retirement and private-savings decisions that individuals make, no research has focused on assessing the opinions of this group. This study uses a survey approach to assess the opinions of financial planning professionals regarding the problems faced by the Social Security retirement system, the solutions that have been proposed thus far, and the use of Social Security benefits in the financial planning process.     

Testing Efficiency Across Markets: Evidence from the NCAA Basketball Betting Market

This study utilizes the National Collegiate Athletic Association basketball point spread betting market to investigate whether differences in information availability across markets result in different relative efficiencies of price formation within those markets. Using intra-conference games of various conferences as clearly defined markets, we show that these markets are efficient given the information available in those markets. However, we also show that regression error variances are significantly smaller (greater) for those conferences with greater (lesser) information availability. This evidence supports previous stock market research suggesting that differential fundamental information availability across stock markets results in differential departures from equilibrium values.     

An Analysis of Risk, Insurance, and Actuarial Research: Citations From 1996 to 2000

This article evaluates the relative significance of research published in 16 risk, insurance, and actuarial journals by examining the frequency of citations in these risk, insurance, and actuarial journals and 16 of the leading finance journals during the years 1996 through 2000. First, the article provides the frequency with which each sample risk, insurance, and actuarial journal cites itself and the other sample journals so as to communicate the degree to which each journal's published research has had an influence on the other sample journals. Then the article divides the 16 journals into two groups: (1) the risk and insurance journal group, and (2) the actuarial journal group, and ranks them within their group based on their total number of citations, including and excluding self‐citations. A ranking within each group is based on the journals’ influence on a per article published basis. Finally, this study observes and reports on the most frequently cited articles from the sample risk, insurance, and actuarial journals.     

An Exploratory Analysis of Insurer Groups

Grouping is a widespread and interesting phenomenon of the insurance industry, among both life‐health insurers and property‐liability insurers. Recognizing the potentially important implications of group membership for insurer behavior and characteristics, numerous academic researchers using insurance company data have included a dummy variable in their regression analysis to control for group membership. However, it has never been clear exactly what is being controlled for when such a variable is included. This article attempts to shed light on this question. Results indicate that group affiliated insurers tend to be larger than unaffiliated insurers, are more likely to be licensed in New York, are more likely to be stock firms than mutuals, and are likely to be less geographically concentrated.     

The Impact of Asbestos and Environmental Reserves Increases on Shareholder Wealth

Abstract

Between 1992 and 2001 significant reserves increase announcements were made by several major property/liability insurers. These reserves increases were for the purpose of recognizing expected asbestos and environmental (A&E) liability. Although most analysts agree that U.S. insurers are underreserved for asbestos and environmental liability, how the market reacts to an insurer’s announcement of an increase in these reserves has not been analyzed. An insurer that is significantly underreserved is likely to be viewed by the market as lacking financial stability for the long term. However, when a company increases its reserves, there is a charge to income and a reduction in capital. If surplus is diminished sufficiently as a result of the increased reserving, regulatory attention and eroding shareholder and market confidence could result as well. By calculating the sample insurers’ cumulative abnormal returns surrounding the largest asbestos and environmental reserves increase announcements made between 1992 and 2001, the study estimates and documents the market’s reaction to these reserves increase announcements. We further explore the potential impact of additional asbestos and environmental liability exposure reporting requirements. Starting with 1995 statutory annual accounting statements, Footnote 24 required additional reporting by insurers of their asbestos and environmental liability exposure (1995 statements were publicly available by the end of the first quarter of 1996). When looking at reserves increase announcements prior to this additional reporting requirement, we find that most insurers announcing large increases in asbestos and environmental reserves prior to 1996 experience a significant reduction in stock price in the days surrounding their announcement. However, consistent with the notion that the additional accounting disclosure requirements after 1995 (Footnote 24) provide valuable information on insurers’ exposure, we find that the announcement of A&E reserves increases after 1995 had no statistically significant effect on the market value of announcing insurers.     

THE EFFICACY OF REGULATORS' ESTIMATES OF LIFE INSURER PORTFOLIO RISK

Abstract: In recent years, state regulators have expended considerable effort and resources to better measure the asset portfolio risk of life insurers. Their estimates are both particularly important in determining reserve requirements and potentially useful for testing the agency costs of conflict between the fixed and residual claimants of insurers. In this study, we test the degree to which these regulator-developed measures are related to the firm and environmental characteristics that financial economists have linked to managerial risk-taking propensities. Our results provide insight into whether these measures effectively gauge the risk preferences of insurer managers.