经济一路上涨并非好事

美国经济在千年之后并没有充分地去火就又重新进入繁荣，对下一轮经济增长不是好事，次级贷危机就是个预警信号。     

Von Dinosauriern, Haifischen und Heuschrecken

Ohne Zusammenfassung Dr. Christina Holtz-Bacha ist Professorin für Kommunikationswissenschaft an der Universit?t Erlangen-Nürnberg.     

Big elephants in small ponds: Do large traders make financial markets more aggressive?

Market participants often suspect that large traders have a disproportionate effect on financial markets, increasing the aggressiveness of market responses. Prior studies have shown that the impact of a large trader on a currency crisis depends positively on his “size” and informational position. By contrast, this article highlights the role that market sentiment has on the impact of a large trader. If the market believes that fundamentals are weak, then the probability of a crisis depends positively on the trader's size but negatively on the precision of his information, with these effects reversed in a generally optimistic market. A large player, therefore, need not make market responses more aggressive.     

The rise of defensive engineering: how personal liability considerations impact decision-making

Abstract

Based on a survey of Australian engineers (n = 275) this paper examines the impact of personal liability considerations on engineering decision-making. Almost all respondents who make high-stakes decisions saw questions of liability as having both positive (90%) and negative (87%) impacts. Our analysis shows that awareness of personal liability acts to focus the attention of many engineers on the moral dimension of their work. However, it also encourages more expensive decision-making, inhibition of innovation and professional paralysis. We argue that while personal legal liability is a legitimate way to focus engineers’ attention on the potential impact of their work, a problem arises when decision-makers are held responsible for disasters over which they had little control. The focus then shifts to ‘defensive engineering’ practices that are aimed at limiting individual liability rather than disaster prevention. Legal processes that are seen to unfairly allocate blame do not encourage practices that support future disaster prevention.     

Young Americans' ethnic identity toward disaster advertising: The effects of disaster location and message types

The purpose of this study is to examine young American donors' perspectives toward disaster ad messages. Attitude toward helping others, social responsibility, ethnic identity on donation behavior, attitude toward ad, and advertising effectiveness were examined using 2 experimental variables (disaster location and message types). The findings explain that the constructs are positively related to each other and the 2 experimental variables significantly influence young Americans' attitudes toward ads and advertising effectiveness. In addition, young Americans expressed stronger feelings concerning attitude toward charity ads, and a higher level of advertising effectiveness was demonstrated when the disaster occurred domestically. Further, emotional messages were considered more persuasive than factual messages. As managerial suggestions, when charities work for domestic disasters, emphasizing patriotism and an emotional message can increase the positive attitude toward ads and advertising effectiveness. On the contrary, when charities work for international disasters, the messages should focus on diminishing distinctions between in‐group and out‐group perceptions.     

HR managers’ talent philosophies: prevalence and relationships with perceived talent management practices

Abstract

HR managers have different beliefs about the nature, value, and instrumentality of talent—referred to as ‘talent philosophies’. In line with cognitive psychology, we reason that talent philosophies are similar to mental models that influence how HR managers interpret and use talent management (TM) practices within their organizations. In this article, we explore the prevalence of four different talent philosophies (exclusive/stable; exclusive/developable; inclusive/stable; inclusive/developable) in a sample of 321?HR managers. We then explore how talent philosophies relate to organizational context (i.e. size, ownership form, multinational orientation) as well as to HR managers’ perceptions of their organization’s TM practices. Cluster analysis corroborated the presence of the four talent philosophies in our dataset. All four talent philosophies were represented almost equally often in the overall dataset. Organizational size was found to be related to talent philosophies, such that HR managers who worked in smaller organizations were more likely to hold an inclusive talent philosophy. We also found support for the relationship between talent philosophies and perceptions of the exclusiveness or inclusiveness of the organization’s definition of talent, and its degree of workforce differentiation. Contrary to expectations, results did not support a link between talent philosophies and perceived talent identification criteria.     

La curva de Beveridge y los determinantes del emparejamiento en el mercado de trabajo

Se exploran los determinantes a corto plazo del emparejamiento entre oferta y demanda de trabajo identificando los desplazamientos de la curva de Beveridge en doce países de la OCDE entre el primer trimestre de 2000 y el cuarto trimestre de 2013. Mediante tres metodologías complementarias (examen visual, técnicas de cointegración y estimaciones no lineales), observamos que el crecimiento de la población activa, la legislación de protección del empleo y las políticas activas de mercado de trabajo (incentivos a la creación de empresas, programas de trabajo compartido) favorecen el emparejamiento, mientras que los niveles de instrucción intermedios, el desempleo de larga duración y las políticas pasivas (prestaciones por desempleo, fiscalidad del trabajo) lo dificultan.