ON MEASURING THE EFFECT OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON REAL GNP GROWTH

In this paper we re-examine the relationship between inflationuncertainty and total output. To properly specify an estimatingequation, we investigate the time series properties of two frequentlyused measures of inflation uncertainty. We fail to reject thehypothysis that each series has a unit root. However, the uncertaintymeasures are not cointegrated with output and relative oil prices.This means that the proper specification is in terms of differences.With this specification we find that an increase in inflationuncertainty growth reduces real GNP growth but, unlike earlierwork, we find that this effect is temporary. It is also unlikelythat an inflation uncertainty shock on its own could producea recession.     

Do They Have Your Number? Understanding the Moderating Role of Format Effects and Consumer Numeracy for Quantitative Front‐of‐Package Nutrition Claims

Front‐of‐package (FOP) nutrient content claims are often used by food manufacturers to promote the nutrition levels of their products. In this research, two studies examine the influence of the numerical format (either percentages or absolute numbers) presented on FOP‐reduced nutrient content claims and the moderating influence of consumers' numeracy levels (i.e., consumers' ability to interpret numbers). Low numerate consumers are more strongly influenced by the label's numerical format, but results differ across nutrition attributes linked to cardiovascular disease risk. For saturated fat, low numerate consumers had more favorable evaluations of the product that had a label presented in a percent format compared to an absolute unit format. In contrast, the moderating effect of numeracy had little effect on the format of reduced sodium claims. Implications are offered for policymakers, consumer researchers, and food manufacturers .     

Stillbirth registration and perceptions of infant death, 1900–60: the Scottish case in national context1

The history of vital registration has attracted substantial attention from both social historians and historical demographers. While much of that research has touched upon issues of fertility and mortality, the contentious issue of the stillborn child—which falls somewhere between the two—has been largely neglected. Although civil birth and death registration was introduced to Scotland in 1855, stillbirth registration did not begin until 1939. Using a range of legal, medical, and statistical evidence, this article explores the history of stillbirth registration in Scotland from a social history perspective. It outlines the problems associated with lack of stillbirth registration, the processes that eventually led to registration of the stillborn child, and the wider significance of that registration.     

An Experimental Assessment of the Effects of Two Alcoholic Beverage Health Warnings Across Countries and Binge-Drinking Status

In recent years, alcohol-related problems on college campuses have been well documented. This research examines how two different alcoholic beverage health warnings placed on the label of a fictitious brand of beer influence alcohol-related risk perceptions, attitudes and intentions, and characterizations of problem-drinking behaviors of binge and non-binge drinkers in Australia and the United States. The consumer welfare implications of our findings, which show that the dependent measures are influenced by both main and interaction effects, are discussed.     

The Effect of Limited Liability on the Informativeness of Earnings: Evidence from the Stock and Bond Markets*

Previous empirical research on the informativeness of earnings has focused on stockholders, and has not examined differences in earnings' informativeness for stockholders and bondholders. Because stockholders are residual claimants and bondholders are fixed claimants, the informativeness of earnings should differ for these two types of investors. When a firm's default risk is low, changes in its financial condition should be of limited relevance to bondholders, but should be relevant to stockholders. In contrast, as the likelihood of financial distress increases, stockholders' limited liability allows them to abandon the firm to the bondholders (Fischer and Verrecchia 1997). Accordingly, as a firm's default risk increases, changes in its financial condition should be increasingly important to bondholders and less important to shareholders. Because earnings provide information on firm value, the stock return-earnings association should decrease as the firm's financial strength declines, while the bond return-earnings association should increase. We use two measures of a firm's financial strength: the firm's bond rating and its reporting of a loss. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find that the association between stock returns and changes in annual earnings decreases as bond ratings decline, while the association between bond returns and changes in annual earnings increases. These results suggest that as the company's financial condition deteriorates, earnings become less relevant for stock valuation and more relevant for bond valuation. When we partition firms based on their loss status, we find a stronger association between stock returns and annual earnings changes for firms with positive earnings (profit firms) than for firms with losses, consistent with earlier studies. In contrast, we find that the association between bond returns and earnings changes is greater for loss firms than for profit firms. These results suggest that losses reduce the informativeness of earnings for stockholders but increase informativeness for bondholders, suggesting that investors view losses as indicating increased credit risk.     

Forecasts of earnings per share: Possible sources of analyst superiority and bias*

Abstract. Previous research has shown that analysts' forecasts of quarterly earnings per share (EPS) are more accurate than those of accepted time-series models. In addition, some previous research suggests that, on average, analysts' forecasts tend to be optimistic (i.e., biased). Two explanations for analysts' superiority have been proposed: (1) analysts use more recent information than can time-series models and (2) analysts use forecast-relevant information not included in the time-series of past earnings. This paper provides evidence on a third potential source of analyst superiority: the possibility that humans can use past earnings data to predict future earnings more accurately than can mechanical time-series models. We find that human judges do no worse than accepted time-series models when both use the same information set: namely, the series of past EPS figures. To date, little or no research has attempted to determine why analyst bias might exist. Still, some possible reasons have been forwarded. First, pessimistic forecasts or reports may hinder future efforts of the analyst or the analyst's employer to obtain information from the company being analyzed. Second, forecast data bases may suffer a selection bias if analysts tend to stop following those firms that they perceive as performing poorly. This study proposes, and provides evidence regarding, a third possible explanation for analyst bias: the use of judgmental heuristics by analysts. Many studies have shown that human predictions are often biased because of the use of such heuristics. We present evidence that suggests this may be the case for analysts' forecasts of earnings per share. Résumé. De précédents travaux de recherche ont démontré que les prévisions des analystes relatives au bénéfice par action (BPA) trimestriel sont plus exactes que celles que permettent d'obtenir les modèles reconnus basés sur les séries chronologiques. De plus, les résultats de certains travaux de recherche laissent croire qu'en moyenne, les prévisions des analystes tendent à être optimistes (c'est-à-dire biaisées). Deux explications à cette supériorité ont été proposées: 1) l'information que les analystes utilisent est plus récente que celles utilisées dans les modèles fondés sur les séries chronologiques et 2) les analystes utilisent de l'information pertinente aux prévisions qui ne figure pas dans les séries chronologiques relatives aux bénéfices passes. Les auteurs attribuent à un troisième facteur potentiel cette supériorité: la possibilité pour les humains d'utiliser les données relatives aux bénéfices passés pour prédire les bénéfices futurs de façon plus précise que ne le peuvent les modèles fondés sur les séries chronologiques. Ils en viennent à la conclusion que les humains obtiennent des résultats tout aussi efficaces que les modèles chronologiques reconnus lorsqu'ils utilisent un jeu de renseignements identique, soit les données historiques relatives au BPA. Jusqu'à maintenant, peu de chercheurs, sinon aucun, ont tenté de déterminer à quoi tiendrait l'existence d'un biais chez l'analyste. Malgré tout, certaines explications possibles ont été proposées. Premièrement, les prévisions ou les rapports pessimistes peuvent faire obstacle aux efforts futurs de l'analyste ou de son employeur pour obtenir de l'information de la société faisant l'objet de l'analyse. Deuxièmement, les bases de données servant à la prévision peuvent être entachées d'un biais de sélection si les analystes ont tendance à cesser de suivre les entreprises qui leur semblent afficher une piètre performance. Les auteurs proposent et attestent une troisième explication possible du biais de l'analyste: l'utilisation de méthodes heuristiques fondées sur le jugement. De nombreuses études ont démontré que les prédictions humaines sont souvent biaisées par suite de l'utilisation de ces méthodes heuristiques. Les auteurs apportent des arguments qui permettent de croire que ce pourrait être le cas des prévisions des analystes du bénéfice par action.     

Husbands' and wives' household work: moving towards egalitarianism?

Whether husbands are increasing their time in household tasks, especially when their wives are employed, has been a topic of debate in recent years. Several studies have found that husbands are participating in more child care now than in the past. But are husbands also doing other tasks now? Is there any relationship between the amounts of time that husbands and wives allocate to various household tasks? Are there any weekday versus weekend differences? A small sample of husbands and wives recorded their time spent in various activities for 7 consecutive days. The findings reveal that wives spent more time in general doing household tasks than did their husbands. Employed wives and their husbands both decreased their total time in household work, compared with full-time homemakers and their husbands. At weekends, however, both employed wives and homemakers decreased their overall time in household work while the husbands increased theirs. The t-test revealed that at weekends there were no significant differences in the times allocated to various household tasks by employed wives and their husbands, and significant differences only in time spent in child care and food preparation/clean-up by homemakers and their spouses. There appears to be a more egalitarian approach by husbands and wives to household tasks at weekends than on weekdays, even when the wives are not employed. Although these findings should not be generalized to the population, they indicate an intriguing possible trend which deserves further investigation.     

ANOTHER LOOK AT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INNOVATION PROXIES*

Shortcomings in the treatment of intangible investment in company accounts imply that there is no statistical collection for innovative activity which abides by the logic used for other economic activity data. As a consequence, analysts rely on innovation proxies derived from administrative and survey data. However, it is still unclear exactly how the different proxies are correlated, and whether the choice amongst different proxies matters. In the light of the innovation measurement, this paper takes another look at the relationship between different proxies of firm innovation. The results show that firm‐level correlations between survey‐based indicators and other proxies for innovation are highest for manufacturing firms and for product innovations.