A note on accounting conservatism in residual income and abnormal earnings growth equity valuation

The impact of conservative accounting on residual income (RI) and abnormal earnings growth (AEG) valuation models is investigated in this note. Limiting the analyses to information dynamics constrained models (the core models in Ohlson, 1995; Ohlson & Juettner-Nauroth, 2005), we find that both models can handle accounting conservatism if the persistence factors of residual income or abnormal earnings growth fulfil certain conditions. In a comparison of permissible time-series specifications, the AEG model can potentially handle more conservatively biased earnings in the first forecast period than the RI model. However, this requires that the growth of the conservative bias in the second forecast period is not too large. In a 0-NPV competitive equilibrium with a constant steady state growth, both models work equally well. Further elaborations indicate that, in the presence of accounting conservatism a reasonable value of the persistence factor of residual income in the RI model should be in the interval between 1.0 and R (where R = 1 + discount rate), whereas the persistence factor of abnormal earnings growth in the AEG model should be close to 1.0. This implies that the persistence factor in the RI model appears to have been understated while the persistence factor in the AEG model appears to have been overstated in previous empirical research.     

The pricing accuracy of alternative equity valuation models: Scandinavian evidence

In many decision contexts, there is a need for benchmark equity valuations, based on simplified modeling and publicly available information. Prior research on U.S. data however shows that the accuracy of such valuation models can be low and sensitive to the choice of model specifications and value driver predictions. In this paper, we test the applicability and pricing accuracy of three fundamental valuation (dividend discount, residual income, and abnormal earnings growth) models, all based on forecasts of company dividends, earnings, and/or equity book values. Extending prior research, we apply these models to Scandinavian firms with accounting data from the period 2005–2014, explicitly testing two approaches for the prediction of the value drivers—exogenously forecasted numbers versus projected historical numbers. Given access to the forecasted value drivers, the dividend discount model comes out as the most accurate valuation model. In particular, this holds in a comparison between the most parsimonious model specifications. The residual income valuation model generates the best pricing accuracy given the prediction of value drivers based on historical financial numbers. Notably, we observe pricing errors that in general are lower than what has been reported in prior U.S.‐based research for the dividend discount and the residual income valuation models. The pricing accuracy of the abnormal earnings growth models is surprisingly weak in the Scandinavian setting. However, these models improve somewhat after a couple of complexity adjustments, in particular with value driver predictions based on the projected history setting.     

The dry port concept: connecting container seaports with the hinterland

The dry port concept is based on a seaport directly connected by rail with inland intermodal terminals where containers can be dealt with in the same way as if they were in a seaport. The main purpose of the article is to extend the theory behind the dry port concept and to define three dry port categories; distant, midrange and close. The findings show that the dry port concept can help identify ways of shifting freight volumes from road to more energy efficient traffic modes that are less harmful to the environment, relieve seaport cities from some congestion and facilitate improved logistics solutions for shippers in the port’s hinterland.