Forecasting and random processes

On the simple model of a (univariate) random process some general problems of “random logic” are discussed. New random approaches to explorative, normative and systematic (normex) forecasting are developed, and some applications are suggested.     

Tales of Motives in Bank M&As in Emerging Markets

For the past 12 years volatile waves of M&As and divestments in the banking sector were generated by numerous, but often similar motives. This article analyses the motives behind bank M&As regarding the acquirer's and the target's reasons and their perceived criteria of success or failure. The study has identified soft “irrational” factors such as bargain deals or excess cash, behind several economic motives such as synergies, survival, market penetration, or following the customer. Overall, the motives proved to be interconnected, allowing traceable further bank consolidation, especially during financial crisis, at the intercountry level. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

In which financial markets do mutual fund theorems hold true?

The mutual fund theorem (MFT) is considered in a general semimartingale financial market S with a finite time horizon T, where agents maximize expected utility of terminal wealth. The main results are:

Consumer consumption intentions of smaller packaged snack variants

Smaller snack package variants are ubiquitous in the food marketplace. Although it is assumed that consumers intend to consume less because snacks are placed into smaller packages, consumer intentions are never measured. This research examines dietary‐restrained consumers' consumption intentions of smaller snack package variants found in the marketplace described by snack type (i.e. less healthy, more healthy – as per Guiding Stars® food labelling system) and front‐of‐package calorie labelling (99 calories, 100 calories). We conducted an online experiment wherein 203 participants were exposed to the aforementioned snack package variants and their consumption intentions were subsequently measured. A regression analysis revealed that consumers who are highly dietary restrained intend to consume more when (a) the snack is relatively healthier and (b) it includes 99‐calorie front‐of‐package labelling. We discuss the idea that dietary‐restrained consumers are not likely to view smaller packaged snacks as portion control devices, but rather, as a means to eat more of a healthier food.     

The impact of prudential toolkits on loan growth in Central and Eastern European banking systems

This paper examines the effects of prudential policy on loan growth in 11 Central and Eastern European banking systems, spanning the period from 2000 to 2015. Based on the measures taken by the authorities of our sample countries, we build several prudential indices. Additionally, we control for the effects of several country-specific factors and bank-specific characteristics. Finally, we test the homogeneity of these effects, accounting for cycle, ownership, and bank effects. Generally, the empirical findings reveal a negative correlation between prudential toolkits and credit growth, with a conspicuous impact for tools targeting lending activity. We see that the effects of a change in the lending framework on loan growth are heterogeneous when we account for crisis and cycle patterns. Furthermore, the interaction between ownership and crisis reveals that, in normal times, foreign banks recorded higher loan growth compared to domestic banks. The opposite is true in turbulent times. The analysis of interactions between credit-based measures and bank-specific variables show that the effects of prudential actions depend on the bank size and leverage.     

Identification of Marketing Needs and Means of Communication of Romanian Marketing Companies in the Context of the Knowledge Society

A few decades ago, academics and economic pundits used to say that information is the main source of power. However, in the Knowledge Society, as we experience it today, information is readily available for everyone, and the real challenge is to master modern and complex information analysis tools, which can make sense of the information overflow of modern society, thus constituting the true competitive advantages of major economic players. For a competent analyst, data generated by a survey, for instance, can reveal paramount information about consumer behavior, competitive strategies, or any other economic and social environment-related aspect deemed important. The marketing needs of Romanian marketing companies are very diversified, commencing with the research of the needs and demand on the target market, going down to the 4Ps (Product, Price, Promotion, and Placement) and their components. The present marketing research was performed using seven categories of information sources: specialized publications in marketing; specialized publications in economics; information provided by specialized institutions in consultancy and marketing research; information provided by individual marketing specialists; information provided by advertising agencies; information provided by the economic sections of the daily newspapers; and job Websites.     

Global modelling…Without models?: Theory,methodology, and rhetoric in world modelling

Global models have provided images of the world and its evolution, as well as assessments of the contemporary world and the debates relating to such issues. However, this article addresses the inquiries and attitudes that are fundamental to the development of global modelling, and it emphasizes that a single image, or model, is incapable of valid, universal representation.     

Sensitivity analysis of the utility maximisation problem with respect to model perturbations

Finance and Stochastics - We consider the expected utility maximisation problem and its response to small changes in the market price of risk in a continuous semimartingale setting. Assuming that...     

Incentives in the probabilistic serial mechanism

The probabilistic serial mechanism (Bogomolnaia and Moulin, 2001 [9]) is ordinally efficient but not strategy-proof. We study incentives in the probabilistic serial mechanism for large assignment problems. We establish that for a fixed set of object types and an agent with a given expected utility function, if there are sufficiently many copies of each object type, then reporting ordinal preferences truthfully is a weakly dominant strategy for the agent (regardless of the number of other agents and their preferences). The non-manipulability and the ordinal efficiency of the probabilistic serial mechanism support its implementation instead of random serial dictatorship in large assignment problems.     

One-to-One and One-to-Many Business Relationship Marketing: Toward a Theoretical Framework

ABSTRACT

Purpose. This work addresses mixed findings in relationship marketing literature regarding the importance of micro-level (interpersonal) relationships on firm outcome.

Methodology/Approach: The article leverages impression formation theory to advance a framework to understand one-to-one and one-to-many marketing relationships to better predict firm outcome.

Findings: The authors suggest that 5 framework moderators—the type and consistency of the encounters, relationship age, purchase frequency, relationship interruptions, and two customer side characteristics (i.e., need to evaluate [NTE] and need for cognitive closure [NFCC]”)—can qualify the relationship building process and impact the effectiveness of interpersonal and/or group relationships on firm outcome.

Practical Implications: The framework suggests that (1) highly consistent sales team behaviors reduce the risk of losing business in case of a sales team member leaving; (2) low frequency purchases are better suited for one-to-many selling relationships; (3) temporarily suspending relationships by individual salespeople is more harmful than suspending relationships by sales teams; (4) involving the customer in the acquisition process facilitates team selling; and (5) a positive first impression is more important for high (vs. low) NFCC and high NTE customers.

Originality/Value. The theoretical framework (1) distinguishes between individual-to-individual and individual-to-group relationships, (2) suggests a distinction between micro-level individual-to-individual and individual-to-group relationships and macro-level individual-to-firm relationships, (3) analyzes the impact of micro-level relationships under the influence of context-related and customer-related factors, and (4) provides managerially relevant guidelines for strategic sales planning.